Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Fatih Karagümrük
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 0 - 1
Bursaspor
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.2/10Karagümrük Edge Bursaspor in Istanbul Thriller
Fatih Karagümrük claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Bursaspor at the Atatürk Olympic Stadium, making the most of their early momentum and holding off a late surge from the visitors. The hosts struck first in the 8th minute, seizing control of the contest and doubling their lead just before halftime in the 44th minute. Bursaspor, despite trailing by two, showed resilience and clawed one back in the 86th minute, setting up a tense finale. The match was not without its edge, as Bursaspor picked up two yellow cards in their efforts to disrupt Karagümrük's rhythm. However, the home side's disciplined approach—evidenced by a clean disciplinary record—ultimately saw them through. Both teams battled hard, but Karagümrük's early efficiency in front of goal proved decisive.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
8' — Goal
Karagümrük open the scoring to seize early control.
44' — Goal
Karagümrük double their lead just before halftime.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Bursaspor pick up their first yellow card as frustration grows.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Bursaspor see a second player booked in the second half.
86' — Goal
Bursaspor pull a goal back to set up a tense finish.
Fatih Karagümrük
Karagümrük started brightly, capitalizing on their early dominance to take the lead in the 8th minute and consolidating their advantage just before halftime. The hosts managed the game well, maintaining composure and defensive solidity for much of the match. Even as Bursaspor pressed late on, Karagümrük's organization and discipline ensured they held onto all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Bursaspor
Bursaspor struggled to match Karagümrük's intensity in the first half and found themselves two goals down by the break. The visitors improved after halftime, showing greater urgency and eventually pulling a goal back in the 86th minute. Despite their late push and physical approach, as reflected by two yellow cards, Bursaspor left themselves with too much to do.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both formations unconfirmed, Karagümrük's early goals suggest a proactive and attacking setup, pressing high and capitalizing on Bursaspor's defensive vulnerabilities. The hosts' ability to strike early and consolidate their lead before halftime points to effective transitions and clinical finishing. Bursaspor, meanwhile, appeared reactive in the first half but adjusted after the break, likely pushing more players forward and taking greater risks, as evidenced by their late goal and increased physicality (two yellow cards). Set pieces and wide play may have played a role, but Karagümrük's disciplined defensive block in the closing stages was crucial. Bursaspor's late offensive push showed tactical flexibility, but their earlier lack of intensity cost them dearly.
Turning Point
Karagümrük's second goal in the 44th minute gave them a commanding lead and proved decisive despite Bursaspor's late rally.
Man of the Match
Unknown
Scored a crucial goal and helped secure the win for Karagümrük.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor: Match Preview
Fatih Karagümrük enter this fixture on the back of a 0-2 defeat at Iğdır FK, continuing a trend of limited attacking output that has seen them score just four goals in their last five competitive matches. Bursaspor, meanwhile, arrive with momentum after a 2-0 away win at Bodrum FK and a string of strong results stretching back to the end of last season, including four wins and a draw in their last five. The early league table reflects these trajectories, with Bursaspor sitting fourth and Karagümrük sixteenth after one round.
From a statistical perspective, this match sets up as a clash between a struggling attack and a robust defence. Karagümrük's last five average just 0.8 goals scored and 7.8 shots per game, while Bursaspor have conceded only 0.2 goals per match in the same span and kept four clean sheets. Both teams have seen their recent matches trend under 2.5 goals, and neither side has produced a BTTS result in the opening round. Set-piece threat is minimal on both sides, with Karagümrük averaging only 2 corners per game and Bursaspor 0.6.
The model expects a low-event contest, with Bursaspor's defensive structure likely to frustrate a Karagümrük side lacking cutting edge. The likeliest outcome is a narrow away win or a goalless draw, with the most probable scoreline 0-1. The main risk is overrating Bursaspor's recent defensive numbers, which include matches from a lower division.
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Expected goals · model says 0.70
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
24%
BTTS: Yes
32%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor that most previews miss.
- 1Bursaspor have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding just once in that span.
- 2Fatih Karagümrük's last five matches have averaged just 1.4 total goals per game.
- 3Only one of the last five H2H meetings produced more than two goals.
Who do you think wins: Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides have shown defensive solidity in recent matches, with Fatih Karagümrük averaging just 0.6 goals conceded and Bursaspor conceding 0.2 per game across their last five, while neither team has an over 2.5 goal result in the new season.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Four clean sheets in Bursaspor's last five and Fatih Karagümrük failing to score in two of their last five point to a low BTTS probability (25%).
Read more ↓
More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor Prediction
Statistical rates point to a low-scoring contest, with Bursaspor's recent defensive form and Fatih Karagümrük's lack of attacking output suggesting a narrow away win or a draw is most likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in two of their last five matches and averaged just 0.8 goals scored per game in that stretch.
Defence
- →Bursaspor have kept four clean sheets in their last five and conceded only 0.2 goals per game in that period.
Match Context
- →Both teams have started the new league season with under 2.5 goals in their matches.
🚩 Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.4 corners for Fatih Karagümrük and 4.2 for Bursaspor, for an expected total of 7.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 35% · Over 10.5: 15%.
How Fatih Karagümrük and Bursaspor Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fatih Karagümrüklast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bursasporlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fatih Karagümrük's recent form is patchy, with a single win in their last two competitive matches and just four goals scored in their last five. Bursaspor, in contrast, are on a strong run with four wins and a draw in their last five, and have conceded only once in that period. The momentum is clearly with the visitors.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor
Head-to-head history is balanced, with two wins each and one draw in the last five meetings. Notably, three of those five matches finished under 2.5 goals, and only one saw both teams score more than once. This supports the expectation of a low-scoring contest.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
3
Fatih Karagümrük wins
1
Draws
2
Bursaspor wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor
With no bookmaker odds available, it's not possible to quantify value edges at this time. However, the model's strong lean to under 2.5 goals and 'BTTS: No' would typically be value if market prices are above 1.35 and 1.50 respectively. Any odds above these thresholds should be considered closely.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor
- ⚠️Both teams have only played one league match this season, limiting the reliability of current season averages.
- ⚠️Bursaspor's strong recent form is partly from the second tier and a friendly, which may inflate their defensive and attacking rates.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value assessment is incomplete.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük 0–1 BursasporThe numbers point to a cagey, low-scoring fixture, with Bursaspor's recent defensive record (0.2 goals conceded per game, four clean sheets in five) the single strongest factor. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 to the visitors. The main way this goes wrong is if Bursaspor's step up in competition exposes defensive weaknesses not seen in their recent run.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor: Common Questions
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor?
Bursaspor are given a 41% chance of victory, with the draw at 36% and Karagümrük at 23%. This is based on Bursaspor's strong defensive form and Karagümrük's lack of attacking output.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor?
The model gives only a 25% probability to both teams scoring, as both sides have seen just one BTTS result in their last five and Bursaspor have kept four clean sheets.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 73% probability, with both teams' recent matches trending low-scoring and neither side seeing an over 2.5 result in the new season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.