FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
FC Augsburg
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Sassuolo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Sassuolo Win
FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo: Match Preview
Augsburg enter this friendly on the back of a heavy 2-5 defeat to Bournemouth and a 1-1 draw with Saarbrücken, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that have carried over from their Bundesliga campaign. Sassuolo, meanwhile, have managed just one win in four pre-season outings but have conceded only three goals in that stretch, keeping two clean sheets and demonstrating greater defensive organisation. With both clubs using these matches to tune up for their respective league seasons, neither side arrives with strong momentum, but Augsburg's defensive frailty is a clear concern.
The statistical matchup tilts towards a low-scoring contest. Augsburg's attack has averaged 1.8 goals per game across the last five, but their concession rate (2.4 per game) is among the highest in this sample. Sassuolo's matches are trending even lower in output, with only 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last five, and a 25% over 2.5 goals rate in pre-season. Both teams average under one yellow card per match and fewer than four corners, suggesting limited set-piece or discipline disruption. The first half has accounted for nearly half of all goals for both teams recently, but neither side has shown a consistent early scoring threat.
Given these rates, the model expects Sassuolo's defensive solidity to prove decisive against Augsburg's porous back line. A 2-1 away win is the most probable outcome, with the Italians' clean sheet rate and Augsburg's recent defensive record providing the statistical backbone. However, if Augsburg's attack clicks early, the balance could shift, but the distribution of recent results points to Sassuolo edging a controlled, moderately scoring affair.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo that most previews miss.
- 1Sassuolo's season over 2.5 goals rate is just 25%, compared to Augsburg's 50%, indicating a lower goal environment.
- 2Augsburg have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, conceding at least once in every match.
- 3Sassuolo's last five have averaged just 1.4 shots on target per game, the lowest in this fixture.
Who do you think wins: FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo?
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Where the Model Sees Value: FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Sassuolo Win
Sassuolo have conceded just 0.75 goals per game across their last four, while Augsburg have shipped 3 per game in their last two; the away side's defensive solidity and Augsburg's defensive frailty tilt the probabilities towards Sassuolo.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams' season over 2.5 goal percentages are below 50% (Augsburg 50%, Sassuolo 25%), and Sassuolo's attack has failed to score in three of their last five, pointing to a lower-scoring environment.
Read more ↓
More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
The Case For This FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo Prediction
Augsburg approach this friendly after a turbulent run, conceding five to Bournemouth and drawing 1-1 with Saarbrücken, while Sassuolo have kept things tighter, conceding just three in four friendlies and holding two clean sheets. The German side's recent defensive numbers are concerning, averaging 2.4 goals conceded per match over their last five, whereas the Italians have managed to keep their average to 1.4 in the same span. With both teams in pre-season mode, the defensive structure and shot suppression rates are likely to decide the contest. Statistically, Augsburg's attack is more productive (1.8 goals per last five) but is offset by a leaky back line, while Sassuolo's matches trend lower-scoring (season over 2.5 goals just 25%) and their attack has blanked in three of five. Sassuolo's shot volume is low (4.2 per game last five), but their defensive record and clean sheet rate (50% in friendlies) suggest they can control the tempo, especially against an Augsburg side that has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Set-piece and discipline data are limited, but both sides have averaged under one yellow per game recently, pointing to a low-card contest. The model projects a narrow Sassuolo win, with the likeliest scoreline 2-1 to the visitors. Augsburg's defensive numbers are the decisive factor, and unless their attack finds early rhythm, Sassuolo's compactness and recent clean sheets should see them edge a low-to-moderate scoring fixture.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Augsburg have conceded an average of 3 goals per game in their two pre-season matches.
- →Sassuolo have failed to score in three of their last five, but have kept two clean sheets in their last four.
Tactical Angle
- →Both teams have low card and corner averages, suggesting limited set-piece and discipline volatility.
How FC Augsburg and Sassuolo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
FC Augsburglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Sassuololast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Augsburg's recent form is erratic, with a heavy 2-5 home defeat to Bournemouth and just one win in their last five, underlining defensive instability. Sassuolo, despite only one win in four pre-season matches, have been more solid at the back, conceding just three goals and keeping two clean sheets. Both sides have struggled for attacking fluency, but Sassuolo's defensive numbers give them a slight edge.
FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 4.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo
There is no head-to-head data available for Augsburg and Sassuolo, so no historical trends or recurring scorelines can be drawn for this fixture.
FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
FC Augsburg wins
0
Draws
0
Sassuolo wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo
With bookmaker odds unavailable, no explicit value edges can be calculated. However, the model's probabilities suggest that the market may underrate Sassuolo's defensive strength and the likelihood of a low-scoring match, particularly for under 2.5 goals and a Sassuolo win or draw.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data available for cross-league friendlies.
- ⚠️Both teams may rotate heavily or experiment with lineups, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Pre-season form is less predictive than competitive matches; motivation and fitness levels are uncertain.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Augsburg 1–2 SassuoloThe model projects a 2-1 win for Sassuolo, anchored by their superior defensive record (0.75 goals conceded per friendly) and Augsburg's ongoing defensive issues. The single strongest data point is Augsburg's 3.0 goals conceded per game in pre-season, which tips the balance despite Sassuolo's inconsistent attack. The main risk is that Augsburg's attack finds early success against a Sassuolo side that has also failed to score in three of five, potentially flipping the expected goal distribution.
FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo: Common Questions
Who will win FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo?
Sassuolo are given a 41% probability to win, compared to Augsburg's 23%, with a 36% chance of a draw. The model's predicted score is 2-1 to Sassuolo, based on their stronger defensive numbers in pre-season.
Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Sassuolo?
The probability for both teams to score is 48%, with Augsburg having found the net in four of their last five but Sassuolo blanking in three of five. The data suggests a slight lean towards at least one side failing to score.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this friendly?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 56% probability. Sassuolo's matches have gone under 2.5 in 75% of their pre-season games, and both sides have struggled for attacking consistency.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.