FC Sion vs FC Thun Predictions
Super League · Switzerland
FC Sion
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
FC Thun
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
FC Sion vs FC Thun: Match Preview
FC Sion return to the Stade de Tourbillon after a mixed run in Europe but a strong start domestically, sitting 5th with two wins from three and a perfect home record (6 goals scored, 2 conceded). Thun, meanwhile, are 10th after a heavy 0-6 home defeat to Young Boys and an erratic defensive record, conceding 11 goals in just three league outings. With both sides coming off high-scoring cup and European fixtures, the attacking trends are clear.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by high goal rates on both sides. Sion average 2.67 goals scored and 2 conceded per league game, while Thun's defence has shipped 3.67 per match and failed to keep a single clean sheet. Sion's attack has been especially effective at home (3 goals per game), and Thun's away games have produced 5 goals for and 5 against in just two matches. Both teams have seen all their league matches go over 2.5 goals, and Sion's last five have all seen both teams score.
The model expects a match with chances at both ends, favouring Sion's attack to edge Thun's porous defence. The likeliest outcome is a 2-1 home win, but the distribution is wide enough to make 2-2 or 3-1 plausible. The most robust signal is the high probability of three or more goals, driven by the underlying scoring and concession rates on both sides.
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Expected goals · model says 2.00
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS: Yes
65%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Sion vs FC Thun Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Sion vs FC Thun that most previews miss.
- 1Sion have produced both teams to score in each of their last five matches, averaging 3.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game in that stretch.
- 2Thun have failed to keep a clean sheet in any league match this season, conceding 11 goals in three games (3.67 per match).
- 3Despite Thun's dominant H2H record (8 wins in last 10), Sion's home league record this year is perfect: 2 wins from 2, 6 goals scored, 2 conceded.
Who do you think wins: FC Sion vs FC Thun?
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Where the Model Sees Value: FC Sion vs FC Thun(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have seen 100% of league matches go over 2.5 goals this season, with Sion averaging 2.67 scored and Thun conceding 3.67 per game; model probability for over 2.5 is 0.68.
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BTTS: Yes
Sion have scored in every match this campaign and both teams have scored in all five of their most recent games; BTTS model probability is 0.64.
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This FC Sion vs FC Thun Prediction
This fixture sets up as a high-scoring contest between a Sion side with a potent attack but leaky defence and a Thun team struggling to keep goals out, particularly away from home. The statistical rates point to goals at both ends, with Sion's home scoring and Thun's concession rates driving the expectation.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Thun are conceding an average of 3.67 goals per league game, with no clean sheets.
Match Context
- →Sion have scored 2+ goals in every home league match this season.
- →Both teams have seen all league matches go over 2.5 goals.
🚩 FC Sion vs FC Thun Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for FC Sion and 4.6 for FC Thun, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 43%.
How FC Sion and FC Thun Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Sion vs FC Thun Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Sionlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FC Thunlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sion have won three of their last five in all competitions, including both home league matches, and have scored in every outing. Thun's form is less convincing, with two league defeats from three and 11 goals conceded, but they have managed to score in four of their last five across all competitions.
FC Sion vs FC Thun — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
What History Says: FC Sion vs FC Thun
Thun have been the dominant side in recent head-to-heads, winning eight of the last ten meetings, though Sion did claim a 2-0 home win in the most recent encounter. Most of these matches have been close, with several decided by a single goal.
FC Sion vs FC Thun Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
FC Sion wins
1
Draws
8
FC Thun wins
Things to Watch: FC Sion vs FC Thun
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Small sample size (three league matches each) increases volatility in rate estimates.
- ⚠️Recent H2H record is heavily Thun-favouring, which could indicate a matchup issue not fully captured by current form.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Sion 2–1 FC ThunThe model projects a 2-1 win for Sion, anchored by their 2.67 goals per game and Thun's 3.67 conceded per match. The most compelling data point is the 100% over 2.5 goal rate for both teams in league play. The main risk is Thun's historical H2H dominance, which could signal an unfavourable matchup for Sion not yet reflected in this season's numbers.
FC Sion vs FC Thun: Common Questions
Who will win FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Sion are favoured with a 49% probability of victory, compared to 24% for Thun and 27% for the draw, based on season scoring rates and home/away splits.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Sion vs FC Thun?
The model gives a 68% probability to over 2.5 goals, with both sides seeing 100% of their league matches clear that mark so far this season.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Yes, both teams to score is rated at 64% probability, with Sion scoring and conceding in every recent match and Thun's defensive record among the league's weakest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Sion vs FC Thun: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.