Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Fredrikstad
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Sandefjord
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7/10Fredrikstad Edge Sandefjord in Gritty 1-0 Home Win
Fredrikstad claimed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Sandefjord at Fredrikstad Stadion, with a decisive first-half goal proving enough to secure all three points. In a match where Sandefjord dominated possession (62%) and registered more total shots (15), it was the home side’s clinical edge and defensive resilience that made the difference. The hosts struck in the 39th minute, capitalizing on one of their five shots on target, and then dug deep to withstand Sandefjord’s second-half pressure. Despite their territorial advantage and a flurry of late attacks, Sandefjord struggled to create clear-cut opportunities, managing just two shots on target. Fredrikstad’s disciplined 4-3-3 shape and determined defending saw them through a tense finale.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
39' — Goal
Henrik Langaas Skogvold scores the only goal of the match, finishing a swift Fredrikstad attack.
53' — Yellow Card
Fredrikstad pick up the match’s only booking, disrupting a Sandefjord counter.
75' — Sustained Pressure
Sandefjord ramp up the pressure, forcing Fredrikstad deep but fail to convert possession into clear chances.
90' — Final Whistle
Fredrikstad hold on for a narrow but deserved win.
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad made the most of their limited possession, showing efficiency in attack and remarkable defensive organization. Although they only saw 38% of the ball, they managed 14 shots—almost matching Sandefjord—and were more accurate in front of goal with five shots on target. After taking the lead late in the first half, they shifted their focus to protecting the advantage, absorbing pressure and breaking up Sandefjord’s rhythm with tactical fouls and compact defending.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sandefjord
Sandefjord controlled the tempo for long stretches, enjoying 62% possession and dictating play from midfield. However, their dominance did not translate into goals, as they struggled to break down Fredrikstad’s disciplined defensive block. Despite firing 15 shots, only two tested the goalkeeper, highlighting a lack of cutting edge in the final third. Their 4-1-4-1 system allowed for fluid ball circulation but lacked the incisiveness needed to unlock the home defense.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Fredrikstad lined up in a 4-3-3, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their midfield trio provided cover for the back four, while the front three pressed selectively and looked to exploit space on the break. After taking the lead, Fredrikstad became increasingly compact, reducing gaps and relying on set pieces and counters for any attacking threat. Sandefjord’s 4-1-4-1 system allowed them to dominate possession, with Sander Risan Mörk shielding the defense and facilitating build-up play. However, their patient approach often stalled in the final third, as Fredrikstad’s low block limited space and forced Sandefjord into speculative efforts from distance. Despite making tactical tweaks and pushing numbers forward late on, Sandefjord’s lack of a focal point up front was telling.
Turning Point
Skogvold’s 39th-minute goal gave Fredrikstad the lead and allowed them to settle into a defensive shape that Sandefjord struggled to break down.
Man of the Match
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Scored the decisive goal and led the line with tireless running, providing a constant outlet for his team.
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord: Match Preview
Fredrikstad and Sandefjord enter this clash separated by just a single point in the lower mid-table, both needing a result to avoid being dragged further into the relegation battle. Fredrikstad’s recent form is poor, with three straight losses and just one goal scored in their last two league outings. Sandefjord have not fared much better, winless in five and coming off a narrow defeat at Viking, but they have at least found the net in every one of those matches.
The statistical matchup is defined by two sides with similar scoring and concession rates: Fredrikstad average 1.15 goals for and 1.77 against per game, while Sandefjord post 1.00 and 1.31 respectively. Sandefjord’s attack has been more consistent recently (1.2 goals per game in last five, failed to score 0 times), but their defence has been porous (2.0 conceded per game in last five). Fredrikstad’s attack has faltered (0.4 goals per game in last five, failed to score three times), but their home record is a relative strength. Both teams’ matches have trended towards both teams scoring, but not high totals: Sandefjord have seen BTTS in five straight, yet only 46% of their league games go over 2.5 goals.
Given the underlying rates, neither side projects to dominate. The model expects a cautious, low-scoring contest, with both teams likely to find the net but neither able to pull away. A 1-1 draw is the most probable outcome, reflecting the balance in both historical head-to-head and current season metrics.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord that most previews miss.
- 1Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 100% of their last five league matches.
- 2Fredrikstad have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 13 league games this season.
- 3Four of the last six head-to-head meetings have finished under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over one goal for and against per game (Fredrikstad 1.15 scored/1.77 conceded, Sandefjord 1.00/1.31), and three of their last five H2H meetings ended in draws, including a 1-1 earlier this season.
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BTTS: Yes
Sandefjord have seen both teams score in each of their last five league matches, and Fredrikstad have failed to keep a clean sheet all season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Model rates the under slightly higher (52%) given both teams' recent attacking struggles and the low-scoring trend in their H2H (four of last six meetings under 2.5).
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More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Prediction
This fixture pits two sides with nearly identical records and goal differences, both hovering just above the relegation zone. Fredrikstad’s home record (3W, 1D, 2L, 9:8) is marginally stronger than Sandefjord’s away form (2W, 0D, 5L, 7:12), but neither side arrives with momentum: Fredrikstad are on a three-match losing streak, while Sandefjord have not won in five. Statistically, the matchup is defined by modest attacking output and leaky defences: Fredrikstad average 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game, while Sandefjord register 1.00 for and 1.31 against. Sandefjord’s recent games have been more open (BTTS in all last five), but Fredrikstad have failed to score in three of their last five. Set-piece threat is limited on both sides, with Fredrikstad averaging just 1.6 corners per game recently and Sandefjord 5.6, but neither side has a significant edge. Discipline could play a part, as both teams average over two yellows per game in recent matches. With both teams struggling for form and showing little to separate them in the underlying rates, a low-scoring draw is the likeliest outcome. The model projects a 1-1, with neither side able to control matches or keep clean sheets consistently. The most plausible deviation would come from a defensive lapse or set-piece conversion tipping it narrowly either way.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Fredrikstad have failed to keep a single clean sheet in 13 league matches.
- →Both teams average just over one goal scored per match and concede at a similar rate.
Match Context
- →Sandefjord have seen both teams score in each of their last five league games.
🚩 Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Fredrikstad and 5.5 for Sandefjord, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 43%.
How Fredrikstad and Sandefjord Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fredrikstadlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Sandefjordlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fredrikstad are on a three-match losing run, scoring just once in their last two league fixtures and failing to score in three of their last five. Sandefjord have not won in five league matches but have managed to score in every one, though they have conceded two or more in three of those games. Neither side arrives with momentum, and both have struggled defensively over the last month.
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord
Three of the last five meetings between these clubs have ended in draws, including a 1-1 result earlier this season. Fredrikstad have a slight edge at home, winning three of the last four at Fredrikstad Stadion, but most encounters have been closely fought and low-scoring. Four of the last six head-to-heads have finished under 2.5 goals.
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
4
Fredrikstad wins
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord wins
Things to Watch: Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value estimates are unavailable.
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small and include friendlies, which may not reflect competitive intensity.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are unknown at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fredrikstad 1–1 SandefjordThe model calls this as a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams’ near-identical scoring and concession rates and a consistent pattern of draws in recent head-to-heads. The strongest data point is that both teams have struggled to keep clean sheets, making BTTS the likeliest market outcome. The main risk is a defensive collapse from either side, but the underlying rates point to a low-scoring stalemate.
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord: Common Questions
Who will win Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
The model rates this fixture as very even, with Fredrikstad given a 36% chance to win, the draw also at 36%, and Sandefjord at 28%. The most probable outcome is a draw, reflecting both teams’ similar season records and recent form.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Yes is favoured at 56% probability, as Sandefjord have seen BTTS in each of their last five league matches and Fredrikstad have failed to keep a clean sheet all season.
How many goals are expected in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
The model projects a low-scoring match, with under 2.5 goals slightly more likely (52%) than over. Both teams average just over one goal per game, and four of their last six meetings have finished with two or fewer goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.