Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Sandefjord
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Fredrikstad
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad: Match Preview
Sandefjord come into this friendly with momentum, having lost just once in their last ten competitive matches and maintaining an unbeaten home record this season (6 wins, 1 draw). Their recent form string of 'WLDDW' is underpinned by a 3-0 home win over Start and an extraordinary 15-0 cup victory, though the latter skews averages. Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have drawn three of their last five and have only one defeat in their last ten, but their away record is less dominant, with a slight drop-off in attacking output on the road.
The statistical matchup is shaped by Sandefjord's robust home attack (2.5 goals per home game, 12.2 shots, 3.2 on target in the last five) against a Fredrikstad defence conceding 1.4 per away match. Fredrikstad's attack is consistent (scoring in all of their last five), and both teams show a propensity for goals in the second half (Sandefjord: 17 second-half goals in last five; Fredrikstad: 5). Cards and corners rates are moderate, with both sides averaging under four cards per game and corners unlikely to reach double digits.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects a match with a strong chance of both teams scoring and a moderate tilt towards the home side. Sandefjord's home scoring rate and Fredrikstad's attacking consistency point to a 2-1 outcome, with the likeliest deviation being a draw if Fredrikstad's defensive structure holds or Sandefjord's attack underperforms.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad that most previews miss.
- 1Sandefjord's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season, compared to 50% for Fredrikstad.
- 2Sandefjord have scored 17 of their last 21 goals in the second half across the last five matches.
- 3Fredrikstad have scored in every one of their last five matches, with BTTS landing in four of those.
Who do you think wins: Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average over 1.8 goals scored per game this season and Sandefjord's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of cases, supporting a high goal probability.
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Match Result: Sandefjord Win
Sandefjord are unbeaten at home this season (6W, 1D), with a +10 goal difference and 2.5 goals scored per home game, giving them a statistical edge.
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BTTS: Yes
Fredrikstad have scored in every one of their last five and BTTS has landed in four of those, while Sandefjord's defensive record is solid but not impenetrable.
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More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
The Case For This Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a moderately high-scoring contest between two sides with above-average attacking output and home/away splits that slightly favour Sandefjord. Both teams have demonstrated a capacity to score, but Sandefjord's home scoring rate and Fredrikstad's tendency to concede away point to a narrow home advantage.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Fredrikstad have scored in all of their last 5 and average 1.8 goals per game across the season.
Defence
- →Sandefjord average 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season.
Match Context
- →Sandefjord's home record: 6 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 15 goals for, 5 against.
🚩 Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Sandefjord and 4.8 for Fredrikstad, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 43%.
How Sandefjord and Fredrikstad Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sandefjordlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Fredrikstadlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sandefjord have lost just once in their last ten, with a home record that stands at six wins and a draw, and a recent form string of 'WLDDW'. Fredrikstad have been harder to beat, with only one loss in their last ten and a 'DWDLW' form string, but have drawn three of their last five, indicating a slight plateau in momentum.
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 4.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning five of the last ten meetings and two of the last three away at Sandefjord. However, the last two encounters at Sandefjord's ground ended in draws, and overall margins have been narrow, with three draws in the last five.
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Sandefjord wins
3
Draws
5
Fredrikstad wins
Things to Watch: Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Standings data is missing, limiting context on league position and motivation.
- ⚠️Recent head-to-head favours Fredrikstad (5 wins in last 10), but recent form tilts to Sandefjord.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sandefjord 2–1 FredrikstadThe model projects a 2-1 win for Sandefjord, driven primarily by their unbeaten home record and 2.5 goals per game at home. The greatest risk to this outcome is Fredrikstad's strong head-to-head record and their ability to score consistently, which keeps the draw and BTTS probabilities elevated.
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad: Common Questions
Who will win Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Sandefjord are given a 41% chance to win, with the draw at 32% and Fredrikstad at 27%. The home side's unbeaten record and higher scoring rate at home make them the statistical favourites, but Fredrikstad's head-to-head edge and scoring consistency keep it close.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
There's a 59% probability of both teams scoring, with Fredrikstad having scored in all of their last five and Sandefjord conceding in three of their last five. Both sides' attacking rates support a strong BTTS expectation.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
The model estimates a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals, based on Sandefjord's 70% over 2.5 rate this season and both teams averaging over 1.8 goals scored per game. The underlying attack and defence numbers point to a higher-scoring fixture.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.