Fredrikstad vs Tromso Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Fredrikstad
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Tromso
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Tromso Win
@ 2.25(+6% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Fredrikstad Held to 1-1 Draw by 10-Man Tromsø Despite Dominance
Fredrikstad were left frustrated at Fredrikstad Stadion as they played out a 1-1 draw against Tromsø, despite dominating possession and firing 26 shots. Tromsø took a surprise lead in the 26th minute, but the hosts responded in the second half and looked set to push on after Tromsø were reduced to ten men. However, resolute defending and missed chances saw the visitors hold on for a valuable point. The match saw Fredrikstad control 66% of possession and rack up eight corners, but they struggled to convert their superiority into goals. Tromsø, meanwhile, were clinical with their limited opportunities and defended bravely after going down to ten men, frustrating the home crowd and earning a hard-fought draw.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
26' — Goal
Tromsø open the scoring, capitalizing on a rare attack to stun the home crowd.
67' — Goal
Fredrikstad finally break through, with B. Fiabema finding the equalizer.
Second Half' — Red Card
Tromsø reduced to ten men, increasing the pressure on their defense.
Late Second Half' — Fredrikstad Pressure
Fredrikstad lay siege to Tromsø’s goal but are unable to find a winner.
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad dominated the ball and created a barrage of chances, registering 26 shots and 66% possession. Their midfield, led by S. Leach Holm and S. Sørløkk, dictated play and repeatedly carved open Tromsø’s deep-lying defense. However, a lack of cutting edge in the final third and some wasteful finishing cost them dearly, especially after Tromsø went down to ten men. Despite their territorial dominance and numerical advantage, Fredrikstad could only find the net once, leaving them to rue missed opportunities.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tromso
Tromsø executed a disciplined defensive game plan, setting up in a 5-3-2 formation and looking to hit Fredrikstad on the break. They took their chance in the first half to snatch a lead and, even after being reduced to ten men, showed remarkable resilience. Their back five, marshaled by V. Skjærvik and L. Hien, repelled wave after wave of Fredrikstad attacks, while J. Haugaard made crucial saves. Despite conceding the majority of possession and chances, Tromsø’s organization and fighting spirit earned them a commendable point on the road.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Fredrikstad lined up in an attacking 3-4-3, using their wing-backs and midfielders to dominate possession and stretch Tromsø’s back five. Their high pressing and quick ball circulation pinned Tromsø deep, especially after the visitors went down to ten men. However, Fredrikstad’s inability to convert chances and their over-reliance on wide play made them predictable at times. Tromsø’s 5-3-2 was designed for solidity, with a compact shape that limited space between the lines. After scoring first, they dropped even deeper, relying on quick transitions and set pieces for rare attacking moments. The red card forced them into a purely defensive shell, but their discipline and commitment in the box saw them through.
Turning Point
The red card to Tromsø in the second half shifted momentum entirely to Fredrikstad, but the hosts’ failure to capitalize on their advantage ultimately defined the outcome.
Man of the Match
J. Haugaard
Produced a string of vital saves under intense pressure, especially after Tromsø were reduced to ten men, preserving a valuable point for the visitors.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso: Match Preview
Fredrikstad approach this fixture from mid-table, sitting 8th with 28 points and a negative goal difference, but recent results show resilience—unbeaten in four across all competitions and averaging 1.6 goals per game over their last five. Tromso, third in the table and with a ten-point cushion over their hosts, arrive off back-to-back wins and boast the league's third-best attack, having netted 40 in 21 matches. Both sides have something at stake: Fredrikstad seek to consolidate safety and push for the top half, while Tromso look to secure European qualification.
The statistical matchup is shaped by Tromso's offensive rates (1.9 goals/game, 11 shots per match last five) against a Fredrikstad defence that concedes 1.52 per game and keeps clean sheets just 14% of the time. Fredrikstad's home attack is steady (1.3 goals/game), but their defensive numbers at Fredrikstad Stadion (1.1 conceded per game) are better than their away record. Tromso's away defence is leaky (20 conceded in 10), but their attack travels well (1.9 scored/game). Both teams see over 2.5 goals in 52% of matches, and Fredrikstad have seen both teams score in four of their last five league games.
Model rates point to a match with moderate-to-high goal expectancy, with Tromso's superior shot generation and head-to-head record (three wins in last five) giving them the edge. The likeliest scenario is an away win in a match where both sides are on the scoresheet, but Fredrikstad's recent attacking output and Tromso's away defensive lapses mean a draw or high-scoring contest cannot be discounted.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fredrikstad vs Tromso that most previews miss.
- 1Tromso's away matches average 3.9 total goals per game (19 scored, 20 conceded in 10).
- 2Fredrikstad have failed to score just once in their last ten league matches.
- 3Three of the last five head-to-heads have produced under 2.5 goals, but the most recent finished 4-0 to Tromso.
Who do you think wins: Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fredrikstad vs Tromso(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Tromso Win@ 2.34
Tromso are averaging 1.9 goals per game this season and have won four of ten away matches, while Fredrikstad concede 1.52 per match and have only a 14% clean sheet rate. Model probability for an away win (0.47) exceeds the implied odds (0.44), giving a positive expected value.
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The Case For This Fredrikstad vs Tromso Prediction
This fixture matches Fredrikstad's middling home record (5W, 2D, 3L, 1.3 goals scored per home game) against a Tromso side with the league's third-best attack (1.9 goals/game) and a positive away goal difference. Tromso's firepower and Fredrikstad's defensive frailty (just 14% clean sheets) set the statistical baseline for an open contest, with the away side's higher shot volume (11 per game last five) likely to tilt the balance. The model's rates favour Tromso to edge a match with above-average scoring potential, but Fredrikstad's recent uptick in attacking output (1.6 goals/game last five) means both teams are likely to contribute.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Tromso average 1.9 goals per game this season, highest among the two sides.
Defence
- →Fredrikstad have only kept three clean sheets in 21 matches (14.3%).
Match Context
- →Tromso have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, including a 4-0 win earlier this season.
🚩 Fredrikstad vs Tromso Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Fredrikstad and 4.7 for Tromso, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Fredrikstad and Tromso Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fredrikstadlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tromsolast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Fredrikstad are unbeaten in their last four across all competitions, averaging 1.6 goals per game in that span and showing improved resilience. Tromso, despite two recent away defeats, have bounced back with consecutive wins and continue to post the league's third-best scoring rate. Both teams' recent form suggests attacking intent, but Tromso's overall record remains stronger.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Fredrikstad vs Tromso
Tromso have controlled the recent head-to-head, winning three of the last five and outscoring Fredrikstad 8-1 in those victories. Fredrikstad have failed to win any of the last five meetings and have been shut out in three. The only two draws in this run were goalless, indicating a tendency for one-sided or low-scoring outcomes.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
0
Fredrikstad wins
3
Draws
3
Tromso wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Fredrikstad vs Tromso
The model finds the clearest value on Tromso to win at 2.25, with model probability (0.47) outstripping the implied odds (0.44). Other markets are closely aligned with bookmaker prices, with only marginal value on 'BTTS: No'. Over 2.5 goals is fairly priced, with the model's 54% probability nearly matching the market's implied 56%.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Fredrikstad vs Tromso
- ⚠️Fredrikstad's recent attacking improvement (1.6 goals/game last five) could narrow the gap if sustained.
- ⚠️Tromso's away defensive record is vulnerable (20 goals conceded in 10 away games).
- ⚠️Head-to-head sample is small (5 matches), so long-term trends may not hold in a single fixture.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fredrikstad 1–2 TromsoA 2-1 win for Tromso is the model's call, driven by their 1.9 goals per game rate and Fredrikstad's low clean sheet percentage. The strongest data point is Tromso's consistent attacking output, both home and away. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Fredrikstad's improved recent attack exploits Tromso's away defensive vulnerability, leading to a higher-scoring draw.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso: Common Questions
Who will win Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Model probability gives Tromso a 47% chance of victory, with Fredrikstad at 26% and the draw at 27%. Tromso's stronger attack and recent head-to-head dominance tilt the balance their way.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
There is a 57% probability of both teams scoring, supported by Fredrikstad's recent scoring streak and Tromso's away defensive record (20 conceded in 10 away games).
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
The model estimates a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both sides seeing this outcome in 52% of their league matches and Tromso's away games averaging 3.9 total goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fredrikstad vs Tromso: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.