Girona vs Las Palmas Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Girona
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Las Palmas
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
8.2/10Girona Hit Five Past Ten-Man Las Palmas in Montilivi Goal Fest
Girona delivered a scintillating attacking performance at Estadi Montilivi, dispatching Las Palmas 5-2 in a match that saw the hosts' clinical edge overwhelm their visitors. Despite Las Palmas enjoying 57% possession, it was Girona who made their chances count, firing 17 shots with 8 on target and converting five of them into goals. The home side seized control with a 22nd-minute opener and never looked back, responding to every Las Palmas threat with ruthless efficiency. Las Palmas, for all their ball retention, struggled to break down Girona’s disciplined 4-4-2 and were left exposed defensively, especially after being reduced to ten men. The visitors managed to pull goals back in the 48th and 85th minutes, but Girona’s relentless attacking and a late fifth goal sealed a comprehensive victory, underlining the gulf in finishing quality between the two sides.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
5 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
22' — Goal
Girona open the scoring, setting the tone for their attacking display.
48' — Goal
Las Palmas equalize early in the second half, briefly shifting momentum.
55' — Goal
Girona retake the lead, capitalizing on defensive lapses.
60' — Goal
Girona extend their advantage, putting Las Palmas under real pressure.
72' — Goal
Fourth goal for Girona, effectively sealing the contest.
85' — Goal
Las Palmas pull one back, but too little too late.
90' — Goal
Girona add a fifth, capping off a dominant performance.
Second half' — Red Card
Las Palmas reduced to ten men, compounding their defensive woes.
Girona
Girona’s 4-4-2 setup provided both solidity and attacking thrust, with the midfield quartet working tirelessly to win the ball and spring quick attacks. The front two, Abel Ruíz and Vladyslav Vanat, were a constant menace, ably supported by Bryan Gil and Jastin García from wide areas. Girona’s ability to convert chances was the difference, as they scored five times from eight shots on target. Defensively, they absorbed pressure well, conceding only five shots on target despite Las Palmas’ possession advantage.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Las Palmas
Las Palmas controlled possession (57%) and moved the ball with intent, but their 4-4-2 lacked penetration in the final third. They managed just five shots, all on target, but were let down by defensive lapses and a costly red card that left them chasing the game. Despite pulling goals back early in the second half and late on, Las Palmas were unable to cope with Girona’s directness and intensity, ultimately succumbing to the hosts’ superior finishing.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-4-2, but Girona’s execution was far superior, especially in transition. The home side’s midfield pressed energetically, forcing turnovers and launching quick attacks that exploited the spaces behind Las Palmas’ full-backs. Wide players like Bryan Gil were instrumental in stretching the pitch, while the front two capitalized on the service. Las Palmas, despite their possession, were often forced to circulate the ball without penetration, and their defensive line struggled to cope with Girona’s movement. The red card forced Las Palmas into a more reactive shape, further limiting their attacking threat and leaving them vulnerable to Girona’s counter-attacks.
Turning Point
Girona’s quickfire double around the 55th and 60th minutes, coupled with Las Palmas’ red card, decisively swung the momentum and put the game out of reach.
Man of the Match
Vladyslav Vanat
Instrumental in Girona’s attacking onslaught, scoring and consistently threatening the Las Palmas defense.
Girona vs Las Palmas: Match Preview
Girona return to Montilivi searching for their first league win of the season after a 1-1 home draw with Leganes and a 2-1 defeat away to Cordoba. Their form string (LDDDL) points to a side struggling for momentum, while Las Palmas arrive buoyed by a 2-1 opening-day victory over Albacete and a pair of pre-season wins, though their away credentials remain untested this campaign. With Girona 16th and Las Palmas 6th after the opening round, both sides will see this as a chance to establish early rhythm.
The underlying numbers suggest a contest of limited attacking threat. Girona average just 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five, with no clean sheets and all five seeing both teams score. Las Palmas have been marginally more efficient in front of goal (1.8 scored per game over their last five), but their shot and set-piece figures are low—just 2.4 shots and 0.8 on target per game recently. Both sides have a history of conceding in the second half, and neither has yet demonstrated defensive solidity.
Model rates point to a low-to-moderate goal environment (44% over 2.5, 56% under), with a 1-1 draw the likeliest scoreline. Girona's strong home record in this fixture is offset by their current lack of cutting edge, while Las Palmas' away form is a question mark. Expect a tight, risk-averse match with few clear chances.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Girona vs Las Palmas Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Girona vs Las Palmas that most previews miss.
- 1Girona have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game in that span.
- 2BTTS has landed in four of Las Palmas' last five matches, and in all five of Girona's most recent fixtures.
- 3The last five H2H meetings at Montilivi have produced just 10 goals, with only one match seeing more than two goals.
Who do you think wins: Girona vs Las Palmas?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Girona vs Las Palmas(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over a goal per game in the league so far (Girona 1.0, Las Palmas 2.0), but with Girona's home attack muted and Las Palmas yet to play away, the median outcome is a low-scoring draw. The 1-1 has occurred in 2 of the last 10 H2H.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Girona's matches have averaged 2.5 goals but their home game finished 1-1, and Las Palmas have not played away yet. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet, but their attack/defence rates point to a modest goal total.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Girona vs Las Palmas Prediction
The numbers point to a balanced contest at Montilivi, with both Girona and Las Palmas entering the fixture off the back of mixed early-season form and little to separate their underlying rates. Girona's home scoring rate sits at 1.0 per game from a single outing, while Las Palmas have yet to play away but managed two goals in their only league match so far. The historical head-to-head leans Girona's way, but most recent meetings have been tight, with three draws in the last ten. Statistically, the matchup is shaped by modest attack and leaky defences: Girona average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five, while Las Palmas post 1.8 for and 1.4 against. Both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, and both have seen BTTS land in at least four of those. However, the shot and set-piece data is underwhelming—Girona average just 7.4 shots and 2.4 corners per game recently, Las Palmas even lower, suggesting limited attacking volume. Expect a cautious first half with the likelihood of a goalless opening 45 minutes (52% modelled chance for a half-time draw). The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with neither side demonstrating the firepower or defensive solidity to tilt the balance decisively. The goal environment is middling, with under 2.5 goals favoured at 56% probability.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Girona have failed to win in their last five competitive matches (form string: LDDDL).
Defence
- →Las Palmas have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, but have won two straight including their league opener.
Match Context
- →Girona have a strong H2H record at home, winning four of the last five meetings at Montilivi.
🚩 Girona vs Las Palmas Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Girona and 4.5 for Las Palmas, for an expected total of 9.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 66% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Girona and Las Palmas Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Girona vs Las Palmas Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gironalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Girona are winless in their last five competitive matches, with a form string of LDDDL and just two goals scored in their opening two league games. Las Palmas, by contrast, have won two straight (including their league opener), but have yet to play away in the league and have conceded in every recent outing.
Girona vs Las Palmas — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Girona vs Las Palmas
Girona have enjoyed the upper hand at home in this matchup, winning four of the last five meetings at Montilivi. However, draws are not uncommon, with three of the last ten overall ending level, and most matches have been low-scoring affairs.
Girona vs Las Palmas Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Girona wins
3
Draws
1
Las Palmas wins
Things to Watch: Girona vs Las Palmas
- ⚠️Las Palmas have not played an away league match this season, so their away rates are untested.
- ⚠️Early-season data is based on a very small sample, increasing variance in all markets.
- ⚠️No injuries are reported, but starting lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Girona 1–1 Las PalmasThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both sides' modest attacking rates and the absence of clean sheets in their recent records. The strongest data signal is the consistent BTTS trend (Girona 5/5, Las Palmas 4/5), but the lack of shot volume tempers expectations for a high-scoring affair. The main risk is Las Palmas' untested away form—if they adapt well on the road, they could edge a low-scoring contest.
Girona vs Las Palmas: Common Questions
Who will win Girona vs Las Palmas?
The model gives Girona a 36% chance, Las Palmas a 28% chance, and a draw 36%. Early-season data and Girona's strong home H2H record are balanced by Las Palmas' recent form, making this a statistically even contest.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Las Palmas?
There's a 51% probability of both teams scoring, based on both sides' recent BTTS trends (Girona 5/5, Las Palmas 4/5 in their last five matches) and neither keeping a clean sheet this season.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 56% probability, supported by the low attacking volume and the tendency for recent H2H matches at Montilivi to stay tight—only one of the last five produced more than two goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Girona vs Las Palmas: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.