Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Hammarby FF
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Vasteras SK FK
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK: Match Preview
Hammarby FF enter this friendly in strong form, unbeaten in their last three and with back-to-back wins over Degerfors and Brommapojkarna. Their attack has been productive, netting at least once in every one of their last five, while Vasteras SK FK also arrive on a positive run, having beaten Malmo and AIK Stockholm in consecutive outings. Both sides have shown recent defensive resilience, each claiming two clean sheets in their last five, but Hammarby's higher shot output and home unbeaten record suggest a slight edge.
From a statistical perspective, Hammarby’s attacking numbers stand out: they average 18.2 shots and 8.2 on target per match over the last five, translating to 2.14 goals per game for the season. Vasteras, by contrast, are less prolific but still effective, scoring 1.67 per game, though their away form is a concern (just four goals scored in three away matches). Both teams’ defences are vulnerable—Hammarby concede 1.71 per game, Vasteras 1.11—so the likelihood of goals is underlined by the 71% and 56% over 2.5 goal rates for each side respectively.
The model expects a competitive match with Hammarby’s attack creating enough chances to edge it, especially given their historical home advantage in this fixture. Vasteras’s recent upturn suggests they can contribute on the scoresheet, but their away defensive record tips the balance towards a narrow home win. The most probable outcome is a 2-1 victory for Hammarby, with the majority of goals likely to arrive before the hour mark.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK that most previews miss.
- 1Hammarby’s last five matches average 3.0 total goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of those games.
- 2Vasteras have failed to score in two of their last five, but have netted four times in their last two away fixtures.
- 3Head-to-head, four of the last five meetings have produced at least three goals, with Hammarby scoring at least twice in each of their three home wins.
Who do you think wins: Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
The 2-1 scoreline aligns with both teams' season scoring rates (Hammarby 2.14, Vasteras 1.67 goals per game) and the recent H2H pattern, with Hammarby winning three of the last five meetings by a margin of one or two goals.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Hammarby have seen over 2.5 goals in 71% of their matches this season, and Vasteras in 56%, with both sides averaging over 1.5 goals scored per game and conceding at least one per match.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in three of Hammarby's last five and two of Vasteras's last five, with neither defence keeping more than a 22% clean sheet rate over the season.
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More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
The Case For This Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a moderately high-scoring contest between two sides whose season-long attacking output outstrips their defensive reliability. Hammarby’s home record is unbeaten (two draws, three goals scored, three conceded), while Vasteras have struggled away (no wins, four goals scored, six conceded in three matches), suggesting a marginal edge to the hosts. Both sides are in positive recent form, but Hammarby’s shot volume (18.2 per game over the last five) and consistent scoring record (no failed to score in last five) indicate a higher baseline for goal creation.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Hammarby average 2.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per match this season.
- →Vasteras average 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per match, but their away record is weak (0W, 1D, 2L).
Match Context
- →71% of Hammarby’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals, compared to 56% for Vasteras.
🚩 Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Hammarby FF and 4.2 for Vasteras SK FK, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hammarby FFlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasteras SK FKlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hammarby FF are on a positive run, winning three and drawing one of their last five, with no failures to score and an average of 2.0 goals per game in that span. Vasteras SK FK have also found momentum, winning two of their last three—including a 4-1 away win at AIK Stockholm—but have failed to score in two of their last five, indicating some inconsistency.
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK
Hammarby have dominated recent head-to-head encounters, winning three of the last five, including a 3-0 home win in May 2026. Most meetings have been open affairs, with four of the last five producing at least three goals and both teams scoring in three of those matches.
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
3
Hammarby FF wins
0
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK wins
Things to Watch: Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Standings data is missing; league motivation cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Friendly status may affect lineups and intensity, increasing unpredictability.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hammarby FF 2–1 Vasteras SK FKThe model favours Hammarby FF to win 2-1, primarily due to their superior attacking volume (18.2 shots, 2.14 goals per game) and a strong home H2H record. The main risk is Vasteras’s recent attacking surge and the unpredictable nature of a friendly, which could lead to more rotation and defensive lapses than league play.
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK: Common Questions
Who will win Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Hammarby FF are given a 44% probability to win, compared to 24% for Vasteras SK FK and 32% for the draw. Hammarby’s stronger attacking metrics and unbeaten home record give them a statistical edge.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
The probability for both teams to score is 54%. Both sides have averaged over 1.5 goals scored per game this season, while neither has a clean sheet rate above 22%.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, supported by Hammarby’s 71% over 2.5 rate this season and a history of high-scoring head-to-head matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.