Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Predictions
Premiership ยท Scotland
Heart Of Midlothian
Full Time
5 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
ST Mirren
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.2(+9% edge)
Match Result
8.6/10Hearts Run Riot at Tynecastle with 5-0 Rout Over St Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian delivered a scintillating performance at Tynecastle Park, dismantling St Mirren 5-0 in a commanding display that left the visitors reeling. The home side took control early, with goals in the 20th and 32nd minutes setting the tone for a one-sided affair. Hearts maintained their momentum after the break, striking twice in quick succession shortly after halftime before rounding off the rout with a fifth goal in the 80th minute. Despite St Mirren edging possession with 51%, they struggled to create meaningful chances, managing just one shot on target compared to Hearts' six. The hosts' attacking verve, combined with clinical finishing and a disciplined defensive structure, ensured a memorable victory and underlined their credentials as serious contenders this season.
๐ช AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
5 - 0
๐ฐ Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
20' โ Goal
Hearts open the scoring, setting the tone for the afternoon.
32' โ Goal
Hearts double their lead, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
50' โ Goal
Early second-half goal puts the result beyond doubt.
54' โ Goal
Hearts add a fourth, further demoralizing St Mirren.
80' โ Goal
Fifth goal completes the rout for the home side.
Various' โ Yellow cards
Both sides pick up three bookings each in a physical contest.
Heart Of Midlothian
Hearts were in imperious form, showcasing attacking flair and defensive solidity in equal measure. Lining up in a 4-2-3-1, they pressed St Mirren high and exploited spaces with quick transitions, racking up 18 shots and converting five of their six on target. The midfield duo of Ageu and L. Mendy provided a solid platform, while the attacking trio behind J. Wilson linked up superbly to carve open the visitors' backline time and again. The hosts were also disciplined at the back, conceding just one shot on target and dealing well with St Mirren's sporadic forays forward. Even with three yellow cards, Hearts maintained composure and control throughout, never allowing their opponents a foothold in the contest.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ST Mirren
St Mirren endured a torrid afternoon, unable to translate their slight possession advantage into meaningful attacking threat. Their 4-2-3-1 shape was repeatedly breached by Hearts' incisive play, and they were forced onto the back foot for long spells. With only eight shots and a solitary effort on target, the visitors rarely tested B. Reus in the Hearts goal. Defensively, St Mirren struggled to cope with the hosts' movement and intensity, conceding five times and picking up three yellow cards in a frustrating outing. The midfield was overrun, and the attacking quartet failed to link up effectively, leaving K. Phillips isolated up front.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams set up in a 4-2-3-1, but Hearts executed their game plan with far greater precision and intensity. Their pressing forced St Mirren into errors, and the home side's midfielders were quick to win second balls and launch attacks. The attacking trio behind the striker exploited the half-spaces, creating overloads and stretching the visitors' defensive line. St Mirren, despite enjoying 51% possession, were largely passive and failed to progress the ball effectively through midfield. Their defensive block was too easily breached, and their transitions from defense to attack were stifled by Hearts' aggressive pressing. Set pieces offered little respite, with Hearts also dominating in this department, winning six corners to St Mirren's two.
Turning Point
The third goal just after halftime (50') killed off any hope of a St Mirren comeback and allowed Hearts to play with freedom.
Man of the Match
Clรกudio Braga
Instrumental in attack, orchestrating play and directly contributing to multiple goals with his creativity and vision.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren: Match Preview
Hearts return to Tynecastle sitting third in the table, buoyed by a five-match unbeaten run in all competitions and a perfect home league record (3 wins from 3, 8 goals scored). St Mirren, meanwhile, have slipped to fifth after three consecutive defeats, but their away form is a notable outlier: two wins from three on the road and just a single goal conceded away from Paisley. Both sides are looking to consolidate their top-six status, but the hosts are under more pressure to maintain their early momentum.
Statistically, this is a clash of strengths: Hearts' attack has averaged 2 goals and 13 shots per game over their last five, while St Mirren's away defence boasts a league-best record (1 goal conceded in 3 away matches). Hearts' last five have seen BTTS in four, but St Mirren have failed to score in two of their last five overall and have only managed three away goals all season. Set pieces could be decisive, with Hearts averaging 6.4 corners per game and St Mirren conceding 4 per match on their travels, while discipline is unlikely to be a major factor (both sides averaging under 2.5 cards per game).
The model projects a narrow Hearts win but finds the market's odds on the draw too generous given the H2H pattern and St Mirren's away solidity. Expect Hearts to control possession and create the lion's share of chances, but St Mirren's compact shape and counter-attacking threat could keep things tight, especially in the first half. A 2-1 home win is most likely, but the draw is a live runner if Hearts struggle to break down the visitors' deep block.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren
The standout value is on the draw at 4.2, where the model's 26% probability outpaces the market's 23.8% implied chance. Other markets, such as BTTS and under 2.5 goals, show no positive edge, indicating the bookmakers have priced those efficiently. The market's strong lean to Hearts is justified by their home record, but the model sees the draw as a live threat given the matchup dynamics.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per ยฃ1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per ยฃ1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate โ always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.13
The model makes the draw a 26% chance (implied odds 3.85), while the market offers 4.2 (23.8% implied), giving a +9.2% edge. St Mirren have drawn 4 of the last 10 H2H meetings and Hearts have dropped points in 3 of their last 7, so the price on the stalemate is inflated relative to the data.
Read more โ
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren that most previews miss.
- 1Hearts' home matches have averaged 3.33 goals, with all three going over 2.5 goals so far.
- 2St Mirren have not conceded a second-half away goal in the league this season.
- 3Four of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in a draw, including two 2-2 scorelines.
๐ฎ Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react โ then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals ยท model says 2.00
Expected goals ยท model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 ยท 2-1 ยท 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above โ every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration โ not betting advice.
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The Case For This Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Prediction
Bookmakers have Hearts as clear favourites at Tynecastle, but the data suggests the gap is narrower than the odds imply. Hearts' attack is functioning well, averaging 2 goals per game and maintaining a perfect home record, yet St Mirren's away form (2 wins from 3, just 1 goal conceded) and their recent H2H resilience point to a more competitive contest. The strongest value is on the draw, with the market undervaluing the likelihood of a stalemate in a fixture that has seen 4 draws in the last 10 meetings.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- โHearts have scored in every league match this season and average 2 goals per game.
Defence
- โSt Mirren's away defence has conceded just once in 3 away league games.
Match Context
- โ4 of the last 10 H2H meetings have ended level, with only 2 away wins in that span.
๐ฉ Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 7 corners for Heart Of Midlothian and 3.3 for ST Mirren, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% ยท Over 10.5: 46%.
How Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals รท 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Heart Of Midlothianlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Hearts are on an upward trajectory, unbeaten in their last four league and cup matches and scoring eight goals in their last five. St Mirren, by contrast, have lost three straight but remain tough to break down on the road, with two away wins and just one away goal conceded all league season.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren โ Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form โ 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack โ 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 87.5% of games this season
- +High-volume attack โ 14 shots/game
Concerns
- โ4/5 losses in last 5 โ poor form
- โStruggling to score โ 0.4 goals/game
- โLeaky defence โ 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren
The head-to-head record is competitive: Hearts have won four of the last ten, St Mirren two, and four have ended level. Notably, draws have been frequent, with two 2-2 results and a 1-1 in the last five meetings, suggesting a pattern of closely contested encounters.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Heart Of Midlothian wins
4
Draws
2
ST Mirren wins
Things to Watch: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren
- โ ๏ธHearts' home attack is in strong form, but their clean sheet rate is low (14.3%), increasing BTTS risk.
- โ ๏ธSt Mirren's recent run is poor (LLLWD), but their away defensive record is a potential stabiliser.
- โ ๏ธNo significant injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed and could affect the model's confidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk โ always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Heart Of Midlothian 2โ1 ST MirrenThe model sides with Hearts to edge it 2-1, underpinned by their perfect home record and 2-goals-per-game attack, but the single strongest data point is St Mirren's away defensive recordโjust one goal conceded in three trips. If Hearts' attack stutters or St Mirren's counter clicks, the draw is the most plausible way the prediction goes wrong.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren: Common Questions
Who will win Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren?
The model gives Hearts a 57% chance of victory, with the draw at 26% and St Mirren at 17%. Hearts' strong home form and attacking numbers make them favourites, but St Mirren's away defence and the H2H draw trend narrow the gap.
Is there value in betting the draw between Hearts and St Mirren?
Yes, the draw is priced at 4.2 (23.8% implied) but the model rates it a 26% chance, giving a +9.2% edge. With four draws in the last ten H2H and St Mirren's defensive away record, the market undervalues the stalemate.
Will both teams score in this match?
There's a 55% model probability for both teams to score, slightly below the market's implied 58.8%. Hearts have seen BTTS in four of their last five, while St Mirren have failed to score in two of their last five, making it a marginal call.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile โ hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes โ see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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