Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Predictions
Super League · China
Henan Jianye
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Chengdu Better City
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City: Match Preview
Henan Jianye host league leaders Chengdu Better City on the back of a five-match winless run, having drawn four of those and conceded eight goals in the process. Sitting 12th, Henan have been unable to generate momentum at home, with a balanced 4-4-4 record and a negative goal difference. Chengdu, by contrast, top the table and have lost just four times all season, with a robust away return of seven wins from twelve and 20 goals scored on their travels.
Statistically, Chengdu's attack is the standout factor: they average 2.04 goals per match (league best) and 18 shots per game over their last five outings. Henan's defence has been vulnerable, managing only one clean sheet in their last five and conceding two goals per game in that stretch. Both sides have a strong BTTS trend (four of last five), and season-long over 2.5 goal rates are almost identical, suggesting a high-probability goal environment. Set-piece data also favours action, with both teams combining for over 10 corners per game recently.
The model expects Chengdu's attacking efficiency and shot volume to tell, particularly against a Henan side lacking defensive solidity. While Henan's home attack (1.33 goals/game) offers some threat, Chengdu's superior away form and recent H2H results (including a 3-0 win in May) point to an away win in a match with multiple goals.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City that most previews miss.
- 1Henan's last five home matches have produced just one clean sheet and an average of 2.6 total goals per game.
- 2Chengdu Better City have scored in 11 of 12 away games this season, averaging 1.67 goals per away match.
- 3The last three H2H meetings have all featured at least three goals, with Chengdu unbeaten in that span (W2 D1).
Who do you think wins: Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
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The Case For This Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Prediction
Chengdu Better City arrive in Zhengzhou as league leaders, boasting the division's most potent attack at 2.04 goals per game and a strong away record of 7 wins from 12 trips. Henan Jianye, winless in their last five (DDLDD), have struggled to convert home advantage into points, recording just four wins from twelve home fixtures and conceding 13 times in those matches. With both sides averaging two goals conceded per game over their last five, the data points to an open contest, but Chengdu's superior firepower and form tilt the balance. The statistical matchup highlights Chengdu's attacking edge: 18 shots and 5.4 shots on target per game over the last five, compared to Henan's 14 and 5 respectively. Henan's defence has been porous, with just one clean sheet in five and a season clean sheet rate of 16.7%. Both teams have seen four of their last five matches end with both teams scoring, and season-long over 2.5 goal rates are nearly identical (Henan 58%, Chengdu 56%). Corners should be plentiful, with both teams averaging over 5 per game recently. The model projects a goal-rich game, with Chengdu's attack likely to break through a leaky Henan back line. Henan's recent run of draws and their 1.33 goals per game at home suggest they can contribute, but the away side's greater attacking depth and recent H2H dominance (3-0 win in May) give them the edge. Expect Chengdu to control the shot count and create the better chances, with a 2-1 away win the likeliest outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, and over 2.5 goals in over 56% of their games.
Attack
- →Chengdu Better City average 2.04 goals scored per game this season, highest in the league.
Defence
- →Henan Jianye have failed to win any of their last five matches (DDLDD) and kept just one clean sheet in that span.
🚩 Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Henan Jianye and 5.6 for Chengdu Better City, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chengdu Better Citylast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianye have stalled in recent weeks, drawing four of their last five and failing to win since late July. Their defence has been leaky, conceding eight goals in that span, while their attack has managed just seven. Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have won two of their last three and remain top of the table, with their attack firing for nine goals in their last five matches.
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City have edged the recent head-to-head, unbeaten in the last three meetings and winning 3-0 when the sides last met in May. Henan's last H2H win came at home in June 2025, but Chengdu's overall record (W4 D3 L3) and recent trend suggest a slight advantage for the visitors. High-scoring games have been common, with three of the last four producing at least three goals.
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Henan Jianye wins
3
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City wins
Things to Watch: Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Henan's recent high-scoring draws (4-4, 1-1) add volatility to the goal markets.
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive records have dipped in the last five matches, raising uncertainty in correct score and under markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Henan Jianye 1–2 Chengdu Better CityThe model calls a 2-1 win for Chengdu Better City, anchored by their league-leading 2.04 goals per game and a strong away record. The likeliest way this projection fails is if Henan's recent run of draws continues and Chengdu's defence, which has conceded two per game over the last five, allows Henan to capitalise more than expected.
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City: Common Questions
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City are favoured with a 50% win probability, compared to 22% for Henan Jianye and 28% for the draw. Chengdu's superior scoring rate (2.04 per game) and away form underpin their edge.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
The model assigns a 59% probability to both teams scoring, with both sides seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches and neither defence showing consistent solidity.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in this match?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 57% probability, supported by both teams' season-long over 2.5 rates (Henan 58%, Chengdu 56%) and recent high-scoring games from both sides.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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