Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing Predictions
Super League · China
Henan Jianye
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Dalian Zhixing
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing Share the Spoils in Zhengzhou Stalemate
Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing played out a hard-fought 1-1 draw at the Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, with both sides showing moments of quality but ultimately unable to find a winner. The hosts took the lead in the first half, but Dalian Zhixing responded early in the second, setting up a tense finish marked by missed opportunities and disciplined defending. Statistically, Henan Jianye enjoyed 58% possession and fired 15 shots, but only managed to test the goalkeeper three times. Dalian Zhixing, meanwhile, were more efficient with their chances, registering five shots on target from nine attempts and forcing the home side into four yellow cards as they pressed for a second goal. In the end, both sides had to settle for a point in a match where neither could fully seize the initiative.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
27' — Goal
Gustavo puts Henan Jianye ahead after sustained pressure.
53' — Goal
Dalian Zhixing equalize, capitalizing on a quick transition—Stanciu with the assist.
65' — Yellow Card
Henan Jianye pick up a fourth yellow as frustration mounts.
80' — Corner
Dalian Zhixing force a series of corners, but Henan's defense holds firm.
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye started brightly, controlling possession and dictating the tempo with their 4-2-3-1 setup. Their reward came in the 27th minute, but despite their dominance in the first half, they struggled to convert chances—managing just three shots on target from 15 attempts. After conceding the equalizer, the hosts found it difficult to break down a resolute Dalian defense and grew increasingly frustrated, as reflected in their four yellow cards. The midfield pairing of Shangyuan Wang and Chao He worked tirelessly, but the lack of cutting edge in the final third ultimately cost them two points at home.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing were forced to weather early pressure but grew into the game, especially after the break. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to stay compact and hit on the counter, and they made their possession count with a well-taken equalizer in the 53rd minute. With five corners and five shots on target, Dalian looked the more likely to snatch a winner late on, but were ultimately denied by Henan's defensive resilience. Nicolae Stanciu and Frank Acheampong were particularly influential, driving the team forward and creating problems for the Henan backline.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1, but Henan Jianye sought to dominate possession and build patiently through midfield, with Bruno Nazário often dropping deep to link play. Their full-backs pushed high in the first half, contributing to their early territorial advantage. Dalian Zhixing, however, were content to absorb pressure and break quickly, using Acheampong's pace and Stanciu's vision to exploit spaces left behind. After conceding, Dalian became more proactive, pressing higher and committing more bodies forward, which led to their equalizer. Henan responded with more direct play, but Dalian's defensive organization and timely interventions kept them at bay. The match saw few tactical changes from the bench, with both coaches largely sticking to their initial setups.
Turning Point
Dalian Zhixing's equalizer in the 53rd minute shifted momentum and forced Henan Jianye onto the back foot, changing the complexion of the contest.
Man of the Match
Nicolae Stanciu
His creativity and assist for the equalizer were pivotal in Dalian Zhixing's comeback and overall attacking threat.
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing: Match Preview
Henan Jianye come into this fixture sitting 12th, having won just once in their last five league matches but fresh from a 5-1 home victory over Qingdao Jonoon. Dalian Zhixing, third in the table, are on a two-match winning streak and have scored three goals in each of their last two outings, but their away form remains a concern with only two wins from eight on the road.
The statistical matchup leans heavily towards goals: both sides average at least 1.25 goals scored per game, and neither keeps clean sheets with any consistency (Henan 16.7%, Dalian 27.8%). Dalian's away defence is particularly porous, conceding 2.25 goals per away match, while Henan's home attack averages 1.56 goals per game. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in more than 60% of their matches, and their last five games each feature three BTTS results. Set-piece threat is moderate, with both averaging over five corners per game, and discipline is typical for the league.
Model projections expect Dalian's superior attacking output to edge a high-scoring contest, with the most likely scenario being a 2-1 away win. However, Henan's recent five-goal outburst and Dalian's defensive frailties mean a draw or a higher-scoring result cannot be discounted.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing that most previews miss.
- 1Dalian Zhixing's away matches average 3.38 total goals, the highest split in their season record.
- 2Henan Jianye have scored first in only 41% of their matches, often conceding early at home.
- 3Three of the last four H2H meetings have featured both teams scoring.
Who do you think wins: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have over 60% of matches going over 2.5 goals this season (Henan 61.1%, Dalian 66.7%), and their combined average goals per game sits at 2.83, supporting a high-scoring profile.
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Match Result: Dalian Zhixing Win
Dalian Zhixing's away record is poor (2W, 1D, 5L), but their overall attack (1.56 goals/game) and recent form (WWLLW) give them a statistical edge over a Henan side with just 4 home wins from 9.
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction
Statistical indicators point to an open contest with a tilt towards Dalian Zhixing's attack. Both sides average above 1.25 goals per game, and defensive vulnerabilities—especially Dalian's 18 away goals conceded in 8—set the stage for a match with multiple scoring chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Dalian Zhixing average 2.25 goals conceded per away game, but also score 1.13 themselves.
- →Henan Jianye have managed only one clean sheet in their last five league matches.
Match Context
- →Both teams' matches go over 2.5 goals more than 60% of the time this season.
🚩 Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Henan Jianye and 4.8 for Dalian Zhixing, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 56% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dalian Zhixinglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianye's recent form is mixed, with a notable 5-1 win last time out but three defeats in their last five league matches. Dalian Zhixing arrive on the back of two consecutive wins, each featuring three goals scored, and have found the net in four of their last five, signalling attacking momentum despite a shaky away record.
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing
The head-to-head record is narrowly in Dalian's favour with two wins to Henan's one and a draw from their last four meetings. Both teams have scored in three of those encounters, including a 1-1 draw in the cup just ten days ago, while the league fixture earlier this season saw Dalian edge Henan 2-1 at home.
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
1
Henan Jianye wins
2
Draws
2
Dalian Zhixing wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing
With no bookmaker odds available, direct value calculations are not possible. However, the model's strong lean towards over 2.5 goals and a Dalian away win suggests these would be the markets to monitor for value once odds are posted. If the market underprices goals due to Dalian's away losses, there may be an edge on overs or BTTS.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value edges cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Recent H2H includes a cup match (1-1) just ten days prior, which may not reflect full-strength lineups.
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive records are volatile, increasing scoreline variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Henan Jianye 1–2 Dalian ZhixingThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Dalian Zhixing, grounded in their higher season-long scoring rate (1.56 goals/game) and Henan's lack of defensive solidity at home. The main risk is Dalian's away inconsistency—five losses in eight—potentially allowing Henan to capitalise if they replicate their recent attacking display.
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing: Common Questions
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing are rated 44% likely to win, with Henan Jianye at 29% and the draw at 27%. Dalian's superior attack and recent form give them a statistical edge, but their away record introduces risk.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 62%, as both teams have over 60% of their matches this season finishing above that line and combine for 2.83 goals per game.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
There is a 60% chance of both teams scoring, supported by each side's recent BTTS trends (three in their last five) and poor clean sheet rates.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.