Indonesia vs Mozambique Prediction
Indonesia vs Mozambique: Model Favors Hosts in Jakarta Friendly
International Friendly · World
Indonesia
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Mozambique
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Indonesia vs Mozambique Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Indonesia vs Mozambique?
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The Case For This Indonesia vs Mozambique Prediction
Indonesia welcomes Mozambique to Bung Karno Stadium in a friendly that, according to the model, tilts slightly in favor of the home side. Despite Mozambique’s higher Elo rating (1372 vs 1331), Indonesia’s recent attacking momentum and home advantage help swing the expected goals line to their favor, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 for the hosts. The model assigns Indonesia a 48% chance of victory, compared to Mozambique’s 28%, with the draw at 24%. Both teams enter with mixed recent form, but Indonesia’s attack has shown a notable uptick, as reflected in their momentum multiplier. The most likely outcomes are tightly contested, with 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 topping the correct score probabilities. With both defenses showing some vulnerability and the model’s expected goals lines above 1.2 for each side, goals are anticipated in Jakarta.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Indonesia’s attack momentum multiplier (1.135) boosts their expected goals to 1.68.
Defence
- →Mozambique’s recent defensive leakiness (1.18) drags their expected goals to 1.21.
- →Both teams’ xG and defensive data are sparse, increasing result uncertainty.
Match Context
- →Mozambique holds a 41-point Elo edge (1372 vs 1331), but no host bonus is applied.
- →Model’s top three scorelines are 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0, all closely priced.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.22 · 1.38
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.68 · 1.21
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Indonesia attacking form lifts their goals ×1.14; Mozambique's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Indonesia goals, columns = Mozambique goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.4%
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with an Elo baseline, where Mozambique is rated 41 points higher than Indonesia (1372 vs 1331), translating to a modest away edge in expected score (0.559 for Mozambique, 0.441 for Indonesia). However, the model then incorporates recent momentum: Indonesia’s attack has been on a hot streak, with a momentum multiplier of 1.135 applied to their expected goals, while Mozambique’s defense has been more porous than usual (leak factor 1.18). This adjustment lifts Indonesia’s final expected goals to 1.675, while Mozambique’s drops to 1.206. Attack and defense factors are neutral (both set to 1), reflecting a lack of granular player or xG data for these sides. The final expected goal values are then run through a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities. This process yields a 48% win probability for Indonesia, 28% for Mozambique, and 24% for a draw, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1. The model also sees a 57% chance for both teams to score and a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
More Friendlies Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Indonesia vs Mozambique
Bookmaker odds for this match are currently unavailable, so it’s not possible to identify positive expected value bets at this time. Once odds are published, bettors should look for discrepancies where the model’s probabilities—particularly the 48% home win and 57% BTTS—are underpriced by the market.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Indonesia vs Mozambique Confirmed Lineups
Indonesia
Mozambique
Indonesia vs Mozambique Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Indonesialast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mozambiquelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Indonesia’s recent form is mixed (WLWLL), but their attack has been productive, averaging 1.8 goals over the last five matches and showing a positive momentum adjustment. Mozambique, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five and failing to keep a clean sheet. Both teams have limited recent competitive data, especially in friendlies, which adds to the uncertainty.
Indonesia vs Mozambique — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
🚩 Indonesia vs Mozambique Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Indonesia and 3.8 for Mozambique, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 48% · Over 10.5: 24%.
What History Says: Indonesia vs Mozambique
There is no significant head-to-head record between Indonesia and Mozambique, as these sides rarely, if ever, meet in international play. This lack of direct history means the model must rely entirely on ratings, recent form, and general team trends.
Indonesia vs Mozambique Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Indonesia wins
0
Draws
0
Mozambique wins
Things to Watch: Indonesia vs Mozambique
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of writing; no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️Sparse xG and player data for both teams increases model uncertainty.
- ⚠️International friendlies often see unpredictable lineups and motivation levels.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Indonesia vs Mozambique: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.