Ivory Coast vs Cameroon Prediction
Ivory Coast Hold Analytics Edge Over Cameroon in World Cup 2026 Friendly
International Friendly · World
Ivory Coast
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Cameroon
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ivory Coast vs Cameroon Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Ivory Coast vs Cameroon Prediction
Ivory Coast enter this international friendly with a notable analytical advantage over Cameroon, underpinned by a 62-point Elo edge (1676 vs 1614) and a more robust attacking profile. The model projects a tight contest, but the Elephants’ superior finishing and chance creation, reflected in a blended expected goals line of 1.49 to 1.13 after momentum adjustments, tips the scales in their favour. Cameroon, meanwhile, lack recent attacking data and show a more conservative attacking factor, which tempers their goal threat. Recent form adjustments marginally favour Ivory Coast, whose attack and defensive leak multipliers (1.027 and 0.865) slightly boost their scoring prospects while tightening up at the back. Cameroon’s recent numbers (attack 0.973, leak 0.919) suggest a modest dip in both offensive output and defensive solidity. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12.3%), 1-0 to Ivory Coast (10.9%), and 2-1 to Ivory Coast (9.1%), indicating a match that could hinge on a single moment of quality.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Ivory Coast’s blended expected goals after momentum is 1.49 vs Cameroon’s 1.13.
Attack
- →Ivory Coast’s attack factor (1.391) and finishing (1.2) outpace Cameroon’s flat 1.0 metrics.
Defence
- →Recent form multipliers slightly boost Ivory Coast’s attack and suppress their defensive leak.
Match Context
- →Ivory Coast’s Elo rating is 62 points higher than Cameroon’s (1676 vs 1614).
- →The most probable correct score is 1-1 (12.3%), but Ivory Coast win probability leads at 45.5%.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.42 · 1.18
From xG
1.81 · 1.58
Blended
1.49 · 1.13
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent form is neutral — no momentum adjustment.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Ivory Coast goals, columns = Cameroon goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.1%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ivory Coast vs Cameroon that most previews miss.
- 1Ivory Coast’s top five attackers have combined for 119.3 xG and 119 goals, while Cameroon’s available data is blank.
- 2The Poisson model gives a 52.3% chance for both teams to score, but only a 48.5% probability of over 2.5 goals.
- 3Ivory Coast have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5, conceding just 0.8 goals per game on average.
How the Model Reached This
The model’s prediction starts with an Elo baseline, where Ivory Coast’s 62-point advantage translates to a home expected score of 0.588 versus Cameroon’s 0.412. This Elo edge sets the foundation for Ivory Coast as slight favourites. Next, the model incorporates attacking and defensive factors: Ivory Coast’s attack factor of 1.391 (with strong finishing and chance quality) is weighed against Cameroon’s neutral attack and defence (both at 1.0), further widening the gap. Recent-form momentum is then applied, with Ivory Coast’s attack multiplier of 1.027 and defensive leak of 0.865 nudging their expected goals up, while Cameroon’s multipliers (attack 0.973, leak 0.919) slightly reduce their scoring and increase their vulnerability. These adjustments yield final expected goals (λ) of 1.489 for Ivory Coast and 1.126 for Cameroon. Finally, a Poisson model simulates exact scorelines, producing a 45.5% win probability for Ivory Coast, 25.8% for a draw, and 28.7% for Cameroon, with the most likely outcome being a narrow 1-0 or 2-1 home victory.
More Friendlies Predictions
Ivory Coast vs Cameroon Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Ivory Coastlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cameroonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ivory Coast’s recent form is solid, with three wins in their last five and an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match. Their defensive record is particularly strong, with three clean sheets and no games failing to score. Cameroon have also won three of their last five but have been less consistent in attack, failing to score twice and averaging just 1.2 goals per game. Both sides have nine form points from their last five, but Ivory Coast’s defensive numbers are notably better.
Ivory Coast vs Cameroon — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +75% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
🚩 Ivory Coast vs Cameroon Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.4 corners for Ivory Coast and 5.2 for Cameroon, for an expected total of 11.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 61%.
What History Says: Ivory Coast vs Cameroon
Ivory Coast and Cameroon have met five times in recent years, with Ivory Coast winning three, Cameroon one, and one draw. The most recent encounter ended 1-1 in the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. Historically, Ivory Coast have had the upper hand, including a 3-0 away win in 2016 and a 2-1 home win in 2021 World Cup qualifying.
Ivory Coast vs Cameroon Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
3
Ivory Coast wins
1
Draws
1
Cameroon wins
Things to Watch: Ivory Coast vs Cameroon
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can produce unpredictable lineups and motivation levels.
- ⚠️Cameroon’s lack of recent attacking data introduces additional uncertainty into the model.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ivory Coast 1–0 CameroonThe model narrowly favours Ivory Coast, projecting a 1-0 victory based on a 45.5% win probability and a final expected goals line of 1.49 to 1.13. The Elephants’ attack, bolstered by superior finishing and recent defensive solidity, gives them the edge, but the most likely scoreline remains 1-1, reflecting the potential for a tight, low-scoring contest. The main risk to this verdict is Cameroon finding a breakthrough against the run of play, especially given the model’s 52% probability for both teams to score.
Ivory Coast vs Cameroon: Common Questions
Who will win Ivory Coast vs Cameroon?
The model gives Ivory Coast a 45.5% chance of victory, with a 25.8% probability for a draw and Cameroon at 28.7%. Ivory Coast are slight favourites based on Elo and expected goals.
Will both teams score in Ivory Coast vs Cameroon?
There is a 52.3% probability for both teams to score according to the model, making it a near coin-flip but slightly more likely than not.
What is the most likely scoreline for Ivory Coast vs Cameroon?
The most probable correct score is 1-1 (12.3%), followed by 1-0 to Ivory Coast (10.9%) and 2-1 to Ivory Coast (9.1%).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ivory Coast vs Cameroon: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 19 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.