Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Jagiellonia
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Suduva Marijampole
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole
Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole: Match Preview
Jagiellonia approach this friendly on a run of three straight defeats, but their season record remains strong with six wins from nine and an unbeaten home record (5 wins, 10 goals scored, just 1 conceded at home). Suduva Marijampole have shown volatility, winning three of their last five in the A Lyga but conceding ten goals in five matches, including a heavy 5-1 defeat away at Kauno Žalgiris. Both sides have demonstrated a tendency for both teams to score, with each recording BTTS in four of their last five outings.
Statistically, the contrast is clear: Jagiellonia's defensive solidity (0.78 goals conceded per game, 55.6% clean sheets) faces a Suduva side whose matches average 4 goals per game (2 scored, 2 conceded per match). Jagiellonia's attack has been less prolific recently (1 goal per game over the last five), but their home form and shot volume (9.8 shots, 2.4 on target per game last five) suggest they can break down a Suduva defence that has kept just one clean sheet in five. Suduva's games also skew towards late goals, with four of their last six coming after the break.
The model expects Jagiellonia's defensive structure and home advantage to edge a match with chances at both ends. With Suduva's open style and Jagiellonia's ability to control possession, a 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, but the lack of Suduva away data and the friendly context introduce uncertainty around both the intensity and tactical approach.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole that most previews miss.
- 1Jagiellonia have conceded just 1 goal in 5 home matches this season (0.2 per game).
- 2Suduva Marijampole matches average 4 total goals per game this season (10 scored, 10 conceded in 5).
- 3Both teams have seen BTTS land in 4 of their last 5 fixtures.
Who do you think wins: Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
Jagiellonia average 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game this season, while Suduva Marijampole's matches average 4 goals per game (2 scored, 2 conceded). The 2-1 scoreline aligns with both teams' BTTS and over 2.5 rates.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Suduva Marijampole's season over 2.5 rate is 60%, and Jagiellonia's is 44.4%, with both sides involved in 4 of their last 5 games finishing BTTS. The combined scoring/conceding rates point to a goal-rich environment.
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The Case For This Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction
Statistically, this friendly projects as a moderate-scoring contest between a defensively solid Jagiellonia and a Suduva Marijampole side whose matches tend to be open. Jagiellonia's home record and overall defensive numbers contrast with Suduva's tendency to both score and concede, making the home side slight favourites but with both teams likely to find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Defence
- →Jagiellonia's season goals conceded per game is just 0.78, with a 55.6% clean sheet rate.
- →Suduva Marijampole average 2 goals scored and 2 conceded per match this season, with 60% of games over 2.5 goals.
🚩 Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Jagiellonia and 5 for Suduva Marijampole, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Jagiellonia and Suduva Marijampole Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Suduva Marijampolelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Jagiellonia come into this match on a three-game losing streak, but their broader season record is robust, especially at home where they have conceded just once in five games. Suduva Marijampole have mixed recent form, alternating wins and losses, but have shown defensive frailty with ten goals conceded in their last five matches.
Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +55.56% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Things to Watch: Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole
- ⚠️No head-to-head data available for these teams.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Suduva Marijampole's away record is untested this season.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Jagiellonia 2–1 Suduva MarijampoleThe model projects a 2-1 win for Jagiellonia, anchored by their 0.78 goals conceded per game and 55.6% season clean sheet rate. The greatest risk to this forecast is Suduva Marijampole's unpredictable away profile and the open nature of their matches, which could see the goal count swing higher or lower than the median.
Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole: Common Questions
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole?
Jagiellonia are favoured with a 48% win probability, compared to 23% for Suduva Marijampole and a 29% chance of a draw. The home side's defensive record and unbeaten home run give them the statistical edge.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, supported by both sides recording BTTS in four of their last five matches and Suduva's high-scoring game profile.
How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole?
The model gives a 58% probability for over 2.5 goals, with Jagiellonia averaging 1.56 scored and 0.78 conceded per game, and Suduva averaging 2 scored and 2 conceded. The most likely scorelines cluster around 2-1 and 1-1.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Jagiellonia vs Suduva Marijampole: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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