Jordan vs Syria Prediction
Jordan vs Syria: Model Favors Syria Despite Elo Gap in Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Jordan
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Syria
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Jordan vs Syria Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Jordan vs Syria?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Jordan vs Syria Prediction
Jordan and Syria meet in a friendly with the model surprisingly tilting towards Syria, despite Jordan's significant Elo advantage of +199 points (1690 vs 1491). The analytics reveal a nuanced picture: while Jordan's historical strength is clear, their recent attacking output and defensive solidity have both dipped, reflected in a final expected goals (xG) line of just 1.26 for the hosts. Syria, meanwhile, benefit from a slightly higher adjusted attacking λ of 1.44, nudged up by a positive recent momentum multiplier (1.027 on both attack and leak), even though their underlying data is sparse. Despite Jordan's dominance in head-to-head encounters (four wins in five), the model's Poisson simulation projects a 41% probability for a Syria win, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 (12.2%), followed by a narrow 0-1 away victory (9.7%). Both teams have struggled defensively in recent matches, contributing to a 54.6% chance of both teams scoring and a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals (50.6%).
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Jordan's Elo rating is 199 points higher, but their recent attack momentum is just 0.865.
Defence
- →Jordan's defence has conceded 2.8 goals per game over their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Syria's final expected goals (λ) is higher at 1.44, despite limited recent data.
- →Model's top correct score is 1-1 (12.2%), but Syria win probability leads at 41.5%.
- →Both teams to score is favoured at 54.6% probability.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.70 · 0.90
From xG
0.99 · 1.63
Blended
1.26 · 1.44
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Jordan's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; Jordan's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Jordan goals, columns = Syria goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
0-1
9.7%
1-2
8.8%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Jordan vs Syria that most previews miss.
- 1Jordan have lost their last five matches, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per game.
- 2Syria's only win in the last five head-to-heads was a 1-0 away victory in 2019.
- 3Jordan's attack momentum is at just 0.865, the lowest in the model's recent sample.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins by weighing the Elo ratings: Jordan's 1690 to Syria's 1491 gives the hosts a theoretical edge, with an Elo-derived expected score of 0.76 versus 0.24. However, when the attack and defence factors are layered in, Jordan's attack factor (0.76) and defensive suppression (0.8) are both below average, while Syria's are set at baseline due to limited data. This means the xG-based expected goals are actually higher for Syria (1.63 xG vs Jordan's 0.99 xG), largely because Jordan's recent finishing and chance quality have lagged. Momentum adjustments further dampen Jordan's outlook: their attack multiplier of 0.865 (from five straight losses) reduces their blended expected goals to 1.26, while Syria's recent form gives them a slight boost to 1.44. These final λ values are then run through a Poisson model to simulate exact scorelines, resulting in Syria being assigned a 41.5% win probability, compared to Jordan's 32.8%. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, but away win scenarios are more prevalent in the model's distribution.
More Friendlies Predictions
Jordan vs Syria Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Jordanlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Syrialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Jordan enter this match on a five-game losing streak, averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per match, with no clean sheets in that span. Syria's recent form is mixed (LWLDD), but they have managed to score 1.4 goals per game over their last five, despite sparse statistical detail. Both teams have struggled defensively, but Jordan's collapse is particularly pronounced.
Jordan vs Syria — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
🚩 Jordan vs Syria Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.6 corners for Jordan and 5 for Syria, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 49% · Over 10.5: 25%.
What History Says: Jordan vs Syria
Jordan have dominated the head-to-head record, winning four of the last five meetings, including a 2-0 victory in their most recent encounter in 2022. Syria's only win in that period was a 1-0 away result in 2019. These results suggest Jordan have typically had the upper hand, especially at home.
Jordan vs Syria Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
4
Jordan wins
0
Draws
1
Syria wins
Things to Watch: Jordan vs Syria
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️Model confidence is low due to sparse recent data, especially for Syria.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable, with squad rotation and motivation varying.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Jordan 0–1 SyriaThe model gives Syria a 41.5% chance of victory, with a predicted scoreline of 0-1, despite Jordan's superior Elo and historical head-to-head record. The single strongest factor is Syria's higher final expected goals (1.44 vs 1.26), driven by Jordan's recent form collapse. However, the model's confidence is low due to sparse recent data for Syria, and Jordan's home advantage or a return to form could easily flip the outcome.
Jordan vs Syria: Common Questions
Who will win Jordan vs Syria?
The model gives Syria a 41.5% chance of winning, compared to 32.8% for Jordan and 25.7% for a draw. However, confidence is low due to limited recent data.
What are the chances of both teams scoring in Jordan vs Syria?
There is a 54.6% probability of both teams scoring, according to the model's Poisson simulation.
What is the most likely correct score for Jordan vs Syria?
The most likely correct score is 1-1, with a 12.2% probability, followed by 0-1 to Syria at 9.7%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Jordan vs Syria: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 17 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.