Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Kilmarnock
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
ST Mirren
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: ST Mirren Win
Match Result
6.4/10Early Agrafiotis Strike Lifts St Mirren Past Kilmarnock at Rugby Park
St Mirren edged Kilmarnock 1-0 at Rugby Park, courtesy of a decisive fourth-minute goal from N. Agrafiotis. The visitors made their early breakthrough count, controlling possession for long spells and frustrating the hosts, who struggled to create clear chances despite a late flurry of corners. Kilmarnock, set up in a 3-4-1-2, found it difficult to break down St Mirren's disciplined 4-2-3-1 shape. The home side managed just two shots on target from nine attempts, while St Mirren, with 57% possession, limited their own attacking risk after the early lead but remained solid at the back. Both sides saw two players booked in a physical contest, but St Mirren's early clinical moment ultimately proved decisive.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
4' — Goal
N. Agrafiotis scores to give St Mirren an early lead.
First Half' — Yellow Card
Kilmarnock and St Mirren each pick up a yellow in a physical midfield battle.
Second Half' — Corners
Kilmarnock press for an equalizer with a series of corners but fail to find a breakthrough.
Late Second Half' — Yellow Card
Both sides see another player booked as tempers flare late on.
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock struggled to recover from conceding so early, and their 3-4-1-2 formation rarely troubled the St Mirren defence. Despite a late push that saw them rack up seven corners, the hosts produced just two shots on target and lacked a cutting edge up front. Midfielders like M. O'Hara and T. Lowery worked hard to gain a foothold, but the final ball was often lacking.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ST Mirren
St Mirren executed their game plan perfectly after taking an early lead. N. Agrafiotis's fourth-minute strike allowed them to dictate the tempo, and their 4-2-3-1 formation gave them control in midfield. They managed 57% possession and limited Kilmarnock to just two shots on target, while remaining compact and organized throughout.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Kilmarnock lined up in a 3-4-1-2, hoping to overload midfield and provide width through their wingbacks, but struggled to create clear chances against St Mirren's compact 4-2-3-1. The visitors' double pivot shielded the defence effectively, and their early goal allowed them to sit deeper, absorb pressure, and play on the break. St Mirren's control of possession (57%) was key, as they slowed the tempo and denied Kilmarnock rhythm. Kilmarnock's late set-piece pressure was their main attacking outlet, but St Mirren's centre-backs dealt well with aerial threats.
Turning Point
N. Agrafiotis's goal in the 4th minute set the tone and forced Kilmarnock to chase the game from the outset.
Man of the Match
N. Agrafiotis
His early goal proved decisive and he led the line with intelligence and work rate.
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren: Match Preview
Kilmarnock enter this fixture bottom of the table after two heavy league defeats, conceding nine goals in the process and still seeking their first point. Their cup form is steadier, but the league's early returns expose defensive frailty. By contrast, ST Mirren have started brightly with two wins from two, both accompanied by clean sheets, and sit third in the standings—already showing a defensive resilience that has translated into six points.
The matchup is defined by Kilmarnock's leaky defence (4.5 goals conceded per league game) against a ST Mirren side that has yet to concede in the league. Kilmarnock's attack has at least shown signs of life, averaging 1.8 goals across their last five in all competitions and scoring in every match, but their shot and possession numbers (4 shots, 26.2% possession average) suggest they are often on the back foot. ST Mirren's attack is less prolific (1.5 goals per league game) but efficient, and their away record is perfect so far, with a 2-0 win at Falkirk.
Given these rates, the model expects ST Mirren's defensive structure to limit Kilmarnock's opportunities, but the home side's ability to find the net—especially late in games—keeps the door open for BTTS and a contest that could see goals at both ends. The most likely scenario is a narrow away win, with the underlying rates supporting a 2-1 scoreline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren that most previews miss.
- 1Kilmarnock's league matches have seen 13 total goals in just two games, the highest in the division.
- 2ST Mirren have kept clean sheets in both league matches, but BTTS has landed in 60% of the last 10 H2H meetings.
- 3Kilmarnock have scored six of their last eight goals in the second half, indicating a late attacking trend.
Who do you think wins: Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: ST Mirren Win
ST Mirren have opened the league season with two wins and no goals conceded, while Kilmarnock have lost both matches and are conceding 4.5 goals per game; the away side's underlying defensive rate and recent away win point to a clear edge.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Kilmarnock's league matches have averaged 6.5 goals so far, with 100% over 2.5, while ST Mirren's attack has shown enough to suggest they can contribute to a higher total even with their strong defence.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Kilmarnock have scored in every match this season and have failed to score in none of their last five, while BTTS has landed in 3 of their last 5; ST Mirren's defensive record is strong but the home side's attack is not toothless.
Read more ↓
More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Prediction
The statistical profile points to ST Mirren's defensive solidity and early-season momentum as the key factors, but Kilmarnock's attacking output at home means the contest should be competitive. Expect a match where the away side's organisation and efficiency edge out a Kilmarnock team that has struggled to keep goals out, with the likeliest outcome being a narrow away win in a game featuring goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Kilmarnock's last five matches average 4.0 goals per game, with 3 BTTS outcomes.
Defence
- →Kilmarnock have conceded 9 goals in their opening two league matches (4.5 per game).
- →ST Mirren have kept clean sheets in both league matches and are yet to concede.
🚩 Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Kilmarnock and 5 for ST Mirren, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Kilmarnock and ST Mirren Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Kilmarnocklast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Kilmarnock's recent form is mixed, with three wins and two losses in their last five across all competitions, but their league campaign has started poorly with back-to-back defeats and nine goals conceded. ST Mirren, on the other hand, have won four of their last five and are the only team in the league yet to concede, reflecting strong early momentum.
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +75% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren
Kilmarnock have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning six of the last ten meetings and remaining unbeaten at home in that stretch. The fixture has often produced goals, with BTTS in six of the last ten and three of the last five going over 2.5.
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Kilmarnock wins
3
Draws
2
ST Mirren wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren
With no bookmaker odds available, it's not possible to quantify value edges for this fixture. However, the model's probabilities show ST Mirren as clear favourites, and the over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets are both close to a coin flip, reflecting the attacking and defensive rates of both sides.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren
- ⚠️Both teams have a small league sample (2 matches), so early-season volatility is high.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent cup matches may not reflect league intensity or lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Kilmarnock 1–2 ST MirrenThe model projects a 2-1 win for ST Mirren, driven by their league-best defensive record and Kilmarnock's ongoing defensive struggles. The strongest data point is Kilmarnock's concession rate of 4.5 per game, but if ST Mirren's attack underperforms or Kilmarnock's late-game scoring trend continues, a draw or BTTS result could emerge.
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren: Common Questions
Who will win Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
ST Mirren are favoured with a 46% win probability, compared to 24% for Kilmarnock and 30% for the draw. Their perfect defensive record and early-season form give them the statistical edge.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
There's a 51% probability of both teams scoring. Kilmarnock have scored in every match this season, while ST Mirren's defence is yet to be breached in the league.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
The model gives a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, based on Kilmarnock's high-scoring matches (100% over 2.5 in the league) and ST Mirren's efficient attack.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.