Kosovo vs Israel Predictions
UEFA Nations League · World
Kosovo
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Israel
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.91(+30% edge)
Recommended Bets: Kosovo vs Israel
Kosovo vs Israel: Match Preview
Kosovo enter this match sitting second in their group, having drawn three of their last four competitive fixtures and conceding just four times in as many games. Their home record in the Nations League shows one win and one draw, with only one goal conceded at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri. Israel, meanwhile, have struggled for momentum, winless and bottom of the group, scoring just twice and conceding seven in four group matches.
Statistically, this is a contest between two of the group’s lowest-scoring sides. Kosovo average 0.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game in the Nations League, while Israel’s attack is even less productive at 0.5 goals per game. Both teams have failed to score in at least two of their last five, and neither side has found the net in the first half across their last five matches. Set-piece threat is minimal, with both teams averaging just two corners per game recently, and discipline is moderate, with cards per game below the competition average.
Given these underlying rates, the model expects a low-scoring, cagey contest where a single goal could decide the outcome. Kosovo’s defensive solidity at home and Israel’s lack of attacking output suggest the likeliest outcomes are 1-0 or 0-0. The probability distribution is weighted towards under 2.5 goals and both teams not to score, with the draw also carrying significant value based on recent head-to-heads and both teams’ group results.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
31%
BTTS: Yes
37%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Kosovo vs Israel Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Kosovo vs Israel that most previews miss.
- 1Kosovo have not conceded a first-half goal in any of their last five matches.
- 2Israel have scored only one goal in their last 270 minutes of Nations League football.
- 3All three head-to-head meetings since 2023 have finished under 2.5 goals, with an average total of just 1.0 per game.
Who do you think wins: Kosovo vs Israel?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Kosovo vs Israel(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.97
Both teams have failed to score in three of their last five matches, and Kosovo have kept three clean sheets in that span; Israel average just 0.5 goals per game this campaign.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.9
Only one of Kosovo’s four Nations League matches has gone over 2.5 goals, and Israel have scored just twice in four group games.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.63
Two of the last three meetings between these sides have ended level, and both teams have drawn two of their four group matches.
More UEFA Nations League Predictions
The Case For This Kosovo vs Israel Prediction
This fixture pits a Kosovo side with a marginally positive home record and defensive discipline against an Israel team struggling to find the net and points. The statistical profile points to a low-scoring contest, with Kosovo’s 0.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game in the group, and Israel’s attacking rate even lower at 0.5 per match. Recent head-to-heads reinforce the likelihood of a tight, low-event match.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both sides average below 1.0 goals scored per game in this group.
Defence
- →Kosovo have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Israel have failed to score in two of their last three competitive away games.
🚩 Kosovo vs Israel Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for Kosovo and 3.7 for Israel, for an expected total of 7.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (78%). Over 8.5: 33% · Over 10.5: 13%.
How Kosovo and Israel Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Kosovo vs Israel Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Kosovolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Israellast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Kosovo have lost just once in their last five, keeping three clean sheets and conceding only four times in four Nations League matches. Israel are winless in the group and have managed just two goals, with a -5 goal difference and two clean sheets in five, reflecting a side lacking attacking cohesion.
Kosovo vs Israel — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Kosovo vs Israel
Kosovo are unbeaten in three meetings with Israel since 2023, winning once and drawing twice. Each of those matches finished under 2.5 goals, including a goalless draw in their most recent encounter. The head-to-head trend points strongly towards low-scoring, closely contested matches.
Kosovo vs Israel Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
Kosovo wins
2
Draws
0
Israel wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Kosovo vs Israel
The model finds the strongest value in 'both teams to score: no' (model 68% vs odds-implied 52%), and under 2.5 goals (67% vs 53%), both supported by the teams’ poor attacking records. The draw is also overpriced at 3.7, with the model’s 34% probability implying a notable edge for a low-scoring stalemate.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Kosovo vs Israel
- ⚠️Small sample size: only four group games played.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown some lineup rotation; late call-ups or tactical changes could affect goal threat.
- ⚠️Neither side has attacking form, but a single early goal could open the game up unexpectedly.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Kosovo 1–0 IsraelA 1-0 win for Kosovo is the likeliest outcome, underpinned by their defensive record (three clean sheets in five) and Israel’s blunt attack (0.5 goals per game in the group). The biggest risk to this call is a single defensive lapse or set-piece converting an early chance, which could force the game to open up against the statistical trend.
Kosovo vs Israel: Common Questions
Who will win Kosovo vs Israel?
Kosovo are favoured with a 46% probability to win, compared to 20% for Israel and 34% for the draw. The home side’s defensive record and Israel’s poor attacking output drive this edge.
Will both teams score in Kosovo vs Israel?
The model gives a 68% probability to 'No' for both teams to score, as both sides have failed to score in three of their last five matches and have combined for just five goals in four group games.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Kosovo vs Israel?
Yes, the model estimates a 67% chance of under 2.5 goals, with only one of Kosovo’s four group matches and two of Israel’s going over that line so far.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Kosovo vs Israel: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Kosovo vs Israel Resources
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Israel Predictions
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Kosovo vs Israel Stats
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UEFA Nations League Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results