Las Palmas vs Burgos Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Las Palmas
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Burgos
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.8/10Late Karrikaburu Strike Stuns Las Palmas as Burgos Seal Dramatic Away Win
Las Palmas suffered a heartbreaking 2-1 defeat at home to Burgos, conceding a stoppage-time winner after initially taking the lead. The hosts dominated possession with 63% and looked in control for much of the first half, deservedly going ahead in the 37th minute. However, Burgos grew into the contest after the break, equalizing just before the hour mark and snatching all three points with a dramatic goal in the dying moments. Despite their territorial dominance and a barrage of nine corners, Las Palmas struggled to convert their chances, registering only three shots on target from 13 attempts. Burgos, meanwhile, were clinical, matching their hosts with three shots on target from fewer opportunities and showing resilience under pressure. The match was a tale of two halves, with Burgos' late surge proving decisive.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
37' — Goal
Jesé finishes a flowing move to give Las Palmas a deserved lead.
58' — Goal
Curro Sánchez levels for Burgos, capitalizing on a rare attacking foray.
90' — Goal
Jon Karrikaburu strikes in stoppage time to complete Burgos' comeback.
Various' — Yellow Cards
A total of five yellow cards shown as both sides battled for control.
Las Palmas
Las Palmas controlled large spells of the match, dictating play with their 4-2-3-1 setup and enjoying 63% possession. Their midfield trio, led by Kirian Rodríguez and Iñaki González Zambrano, orchestrated play well, and the team racked up nine corners as they pressed for openings. Jesé provided the breakthrough in the 37th minute, but Las Palmas struggled to maintain their intensity after the break. Despite their dominance on the ball, the hosts lacked a cutting edge in the final third, with only three of their 13 shots testing Ander Cantero in the Burgos goal. Defensive lapses and a loss of control in midfield allowed Burgos back into the game, and Las Palmas ultimately paid the price for their profligacy and inability to manage the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Burgos
Burgos weathered early pressure and showed impressive grit to come from behind and snatch a dramatic victory on the road. Lining up in a compact 4-4-2, they were forced to defend deep for much of the first half, but gradually grew into the contest. Their physical approach was evident, committing 21 fouls and picking up three yellow cards, but it was matched by a clinical edge in front of goal. After falling behind, Burgos responded with greater attacking intent, equalizing through Curro Sánchez in the 58th minute before Jon Karrikaburu's stoppage-time strike sealed a memorable win. Their ability to absorb pressure and strike on the break was key, as was their resilience in the face of Las Palmas' territorial dominance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Las Palmas set up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on patient build-up play and using their numerical advantage in midfield to dominate possession. Their fullbacks pushed high, and the team looked to create overloads in wide areas, resulting in nine corners. However, their attacking midfielders often struggled to break down Burgos' compact defensive lines. Burgos, in contrast, deployed a disciplined 4-4-2, sitting deep and looking to frustrate their hosts. They relied on quick transitions and direct play to exploit spaces left by Las Palmas' advanced fullbacks. Their aggressive pressing and physicality disrupted Las Palmas' rhythm, especially in the second half, and their substitutions injected fresh energy for the late push that yielded the winner.
Turning Point
Karrikaburu's stoppage-time winner in the 90th minute, which stunned Las Palmas and sealed all three points for Burgos.
Man of the Match
Jon Karrikaburu
His tireless running and decisive last-minute goal capped a match-winning performance for Burgos.
Las Palmas vs Burgos: Match Preview
Las Palmas sit second in the table after five matches, having won three and drawn one, with their only defeat coming away at Girona. Their home record is solid, with four points from two matches and just one goal conceded at Estadio de Gran Canaria. Burgos, meanwhile, are fifth, two points behind, but their away form is a concern: they have yet to score on the road this season, drawing once and losing once, while all their attacking output has come at home.
This fixture is shaped by the defensive resilience of both sides. Las Palmas average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with a 60% clean sheet rate and only one home goal allowed. Burgos' overall scoring rate is slightly higher at 1.6, but their away attack has been toothless so far (0 goals in 2 matches). Both teams' matches lean towards the under, with Las Palmas at 60% under 2.5 goals and Burgos at 40%. The underlying shot and possession numbers are similar, and neither side stands out for set-piece threat or discipline, with cards and corners both near league averages.
Given the statistical symmetry and the historic tendency for low-scoring draws in this fixture, the model expects a cautious, evenly matched contest. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with both sides likely to prioritise defensive stability over attacking risk, especially given Burgos' away struggles and Las Palmas' strong home defensive record.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Las Palmas vs Burgos Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Las Palmas vs Burgos that most previews miss.
- 1Burgos have not scored in either of their away matches this season, despite averaging 1.6 goals per game overall.
- 2Four of the last six head-to-heads between these sides have finished 0-0, with neither team scoring more than twice in any meeting.
- 3Las Palmas have kept clean sheets in 60% of their matches this season and have conceded only once at home.
Who do you think wins: Las Palmas vs Burgos?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Las Palmas vs Burgos(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average between 1.2 and 1.6 goals per game and have similar defensive records, while the draw has occurred in four of their last six head-to-head meetings, most commonly 0-0 or 1-1.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Las Palmas matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 60% of their games this season, and Burgos have failed to score in both away matches so far.
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Las Palmas vs Burgos Prediction
Las Palmas and Burgos both enter this fixture from the upper reaches of the Segunda table, separated by just two points after five rounds. Las Palmas have started solidly, especially at home where they remain unbeaten, while Burgos are yet to score on their travels but have shown attacking intent overall. Both sides have mirrored each other in terms of recent results and underlying rates, suggesting a closely contested match. Statistically, the matchup is finely balanced. Las Palmas average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with a 60% clean sheet rate and only one home goal conceded so far. Burgos have a slightly higher scoring rate at 1.6 per game but have not found the net away from home (0 goals in 2 away matches), relying on a strong home attack for their overall numbers. Both teams' matches trend towards the under 2.5 goals (Las Palmas 60% under, Burgos 40% under), and their shot and possession figures are close, with neither side dominating set pieces. Given the low-scoring history between these clubs—four of the last six meetings finished 0-0—and their current defensive profiles, the model expects a tight, low-event contest. The likeliest outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the modal scoreline, as both sides are difficult to break down but not prolific in attack, especially with Burgos' away bluntness.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Burgos have failed to score in both away games so far, despite averaging 1.6 goals per game overall.
Defence
- →Las Palmas have conceded just one goal in two home matches this season.
Match Context
- →Four of the last six head-to-head meetings have ended in draws, three of them 0-0.
🚩 Las Palmas vs Burgos Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Las Palmas and 5 for Burgos, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Las Palmas and Burgos Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Las Palmas vs Burgos Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burgoslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Las Palmas arrive with three wins from five, including two victories and a draw in their last three outings, and have conceded just once at home. Burgos have also started well, but their away form is a concern, with no goals scored in two road matches despite a positive overall goal difference. Both teams' recent form strings—WDLWW for Las Palmas and WDDLW for Burgos—point to consistency but not dominance.
Las Palmas vs Burgos — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Las Palmas vs Burgos
The head-to-head record is notable for its lack of goals: four of the last six meetings have ended goalless, and Las Palmas have not beaten Burgos in this period. Burgos have twice won 2-0 away, but draws are by far the most common outcome, especially at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
Las Palmas vs Burgos Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
0
Las Palmas wins
4
Draws
2
Burgos wins
Things to Watch: Las Palmas vs Burgos
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Small sample size (5 matches) for current season home/away splits.
- ⚠️Burgos' away attack may be stronger than results suggest, but data so far shows zero away goals.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Las Palmas 1–1 BurgosThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely result, driven by both teams' similar season-long scoring and concession rates and Burgos' lack of away goals. The main threat to this outcome is if Burgos' away attack improves sharply or Las Palmas' home defence regresses, but the data to date points to a low-scoring, balanced match.
Las Palmas vs Burgos: Common Questions
Who will win Las Palmas vs Burgos?
The model gives Las Palmas a 36% chance of winning, the draw a 36% chance, and Burgos a 28% chance. Both teams have similar defensive records and recent form, making a draw the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
There is a 48% probability that both teams will score. Burgos have yet to score away from home this season, while Las Palmas have conceded just once at home, so the data slightly favours 'No' for BTTS.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
The probability for under 2.5 goals is 61%. Las Palmas matches have gone under 2.5 in 60% of games this season, and four of the last six head-to-heads have finished 0-0.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Las Palmas vs Burgos: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.