Le Havre vs Lyon Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Le Havre
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 2
Lyon
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.18
Match Result
6.5/10Le Havre Hold Firm with Ten Men to Deny Dominant Lyon in Goalless Stalemate
Le Havre and Lyon played out a tense 0-0 draw at Stade Océane, with the hosts surviving a second-half red card to frustrate a Lyon side that dominated possession but could not find a breakthrough. Lyon controlled the tempo from the outset, enjoying 65% of the ball and matching Le Havre's attacking output with 13 shots to the hosts' 12, but both sides were limited to just four shots on target apiece in a match defined by defensive resilience and missed opportunities. The match's narrative shifted dramatically after Le Havre were reduced to ten men following a red card, forcing them to retreat deeper and rely on disciplined defending. Despite Lyon's territorial dominance and a flurry of late pressure, Le Havre's back line, marshaled by Arouna Sangante and Stephan Zagadou, held firm. In the end, neither side could produce the decisive moment of quality, leaving both to settle for a point.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
0 - 2
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
52' — Red Card
Le Havre reduced to ten men, shifting the match's momentum in Lyon's favor.
68' — Yellow Card
Lyon pick up their third yellow as frustrations mount in search of a goal.
77' — Save
Mory Diaw makes a crucial stop to deny Lyon's best chance of the match.
Le Havre
Le Havre approached the match with a compact 4-1-3-2 formation, looking to disrupt Lyon's rhythm and strike on the break. They managed to create a handful of chances, registering 12 shots and four on target, but struggled to maintain possession, finishing with just 35%. The turning point came with a red card, forcing a tactical reshuffle and a defensive posture for the remainder of the match. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Le Havre showed impressive discipline, conceding few clear opportunities and earning a hard-fought clean sheet.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Lyon
Lyon set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation and dictated the flow of the game with 65% possession, but struggled to convert their dominance into clear-cut chances. Their 13 shots and four on target mirrored Le Havre's output, despite the numerical advantage for much of the second half. Frustration showed as Lyon picked up four yellow cards and committed 16 fouls, unable to break down a well-drilled Le Havre defense. Ultimately, Lyon's lack of cutting edge in the final third cost them two points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Le Havre's 4-1-3-2 was designed to congest central areas and spring quick transitions, but after the red card, they shifted to a deeper defensive block, sacrificing attacking ambition for solidity. Their compactness and willingness to cede possession frustrated Lyon, who, despite their 4-2-3-1 shape and overwhelming ball control, struggled to penetrate the final third. Lyon's full-backs, particularly Tagliafico, pushed high to stretch play, but Le Havre's disciplined lines and timely interventions kept danger at bay. Set pieces offered little for either side, with both teams earning just two corners each.
Turning Point
The red card for Le Havre early in the second half forced them into a defensive shell and set up a backs-to-the-wall effort that defined the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
Arouna Sangante
His leadership and defensive solidity were instrumental in preserving a clean sheet despite Le Havre being a man down.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.50
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
31%
BTTS: Yes
30%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Le Havre vs Lyon Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Le Havre vs Lyon?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Le Havre vs Lyon(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Lyon Win@ 1.42
Lyon have a strong away record relative to Le Havre's home form, significantly higher attacking output, and have dominated recent H2H. However, the odds are quite short and value is marginal.
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BTTS: No@ 1.18
Le Havre have failed to score in 3 of last 5, Lyon have 2 clean sheets in last 5, and H2H also trends low-scoring for Le Havre. Odds are short but probability is high.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.13
Both teams trend under 2.5 (Le Havre 64% under, Lyon 48% under), and Le Havre's attack is weak. Odds are very short, so only a small stake.
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Le Havre vs Lyon Prediction
Lyon travel to Le Havre as strong favourites, with a significant gap in league position and recent form. Le Havre come into this fixture on a three-game losing streak, struggling badly in attack (0.8 goals per game last 5, 3/5 failed to score), while Lyon have been more consistent and potent, especially away from home. Lyon's defense is not watertight but Le Havre's lack of threat makes a clean sheet for the visitors likely. Recent head-to-heads have also strongly favoured Lyon. Expect a controlled away performance, with Lyon likely to score in both halves and Le Havre struggling to create clear chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →H2H: Lyon have won 3 of last 5, including a 4-0 away win.
Attack
- →Le Havre have lost 3 in a row, scoring 0 in each.
- →Le Havre average just 0.8 goals per game this season, and 0.8 in last 5.
- →Lyon's away attack (1.54 goals/game) is much stronger than Le Havre's home attack.
- →Le Havre's recent matches are low on corners and shots on target.
Defence
- →Le Havre failed to score in 3 of last 5; Lyon kept 2 clean sheets in last 5.
Match Context
- →Lyon have scored in every away match in their last 5.
- →Le Havre's home record (5W 5D 3L) is mid-table, but Lyon's away record (5W 3D 5L) is above average.
🚩 Le Havre vs Lyon Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Le Havre and 5.4 for Lyon, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Le Havre and Lyon Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Le Havre vs Lyon Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Le Havrelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Lyonlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Le Havre vs Lyon — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +48.39% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Le Havre vs Lyon
Le Havre vs Lyon Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
1
Le Havre wins
2
Draws
3
Lyon wins
Things to Watch: Le Havre vs Lyon
- ⚠️Le Havre have some home resilience (5 home wins, 5 draws), so a draw is not impossible.
- ⚠️Lyon's away defense can concede (19 conceded in 13 away), so a Le Havre goal cannot be fully ruled out.
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, corners) are missing for a few recent games, slightly reducing confidence in set piece markets.
- ⚠️Lyon missing O. Mangala (midfield) could affect balance but not a major absentee.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Le Havre vs Lyon: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.