Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Lechia Gdansk
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Piast Gliwice
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 3.8(+28% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 3.8
Lechia Gdansk matches average 3.78 goals per game (season over 2.5 at 71%), Piast away games see 2.93. Recent H2H also trends high scoring. Odds for over 2.5 are much higher than model probability, giving strong value.
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BTTS: Yes@ 3.6
Both teams have scored in 4 of Piast's last 5, and Lechia's defense is leaky (only 11% clean sheet rate). H2H has seen BTTS in 6 of last 10. Odds are higher than model probability.
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The Case For This Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Prediction
Lechia Gdansk come into this fixture with strong home form and a potent attack, averaging 2.36 goals per home game. Piast Gliwice have shown inconsistency, especially away, but can threaten on the counter. Both teams' defenses are vulnerable, with Lechia's clean sheet rate particularly low. H2H history shows a tendency for goals and BTTS. Expect Lechia to control the match and create more chances, but Piast are capable of scoring, especially late.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Lechia Gdansk's home attack (2.36 gpg) vs Piast's away defense (1.57 gpg conceded)
- →Both teams have low clean sheet rates in recent matches
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side
Match Context
- →Lechia's season over 2.5 goal % is 71%, Piast's is 54%
- →Recent H2H meetings trend towards goals and BTTS
- →Lechia's home record (8W-3D-3L) is strong; Piast's away (5W-2D-7L) is mixed
🚩 Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Lechia Gdansk and 6.3 for Piast Gliwice, for an expected total of 11.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (74%). Over 8.5: 83% · Over 10.5: 64%.
How Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Lechia Gdansklast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Piast Gliwicelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of games this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Lechia Gdansk wins
2
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice
- ⚠️Piast's recent away matches lack detailed stats, increasing model uncertainty
- ⚠️Some missing data on shots/corners for Piast's last 5 matches
- ⚠️Lechia's defense is inconsistent, increasing volatility in correct score markets
- ⚠️Odds may move before kickoff, recheck for value
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.