Leganes vs Granada CF Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Leganes
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Granada CF
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8.6/10Leganes Edge Granada in Five-Goal Thriller at Butarque
Leganes claimed a dramatic 3-2 victory over Granada CF in a pulsating Segunda División encounter at Municipal de Butarque. The hosts raced into an early 2-0 lead inside the first seven minutes, only for Granada to mount a spirited comeback and level the score by the 52nd minute. With both sides trading blows and racking up 21 shots apiece, it was Leganes who found the decisive breakthrough at the death, netting the winner in the 90th minute to send the home fans into raptures. The match was a showcase of attacking intent and resilience from both teams. Leganes, despite having less possession (42%), were clinical in front of goal, firing 12 shots on target. Granada, meanwhile, controlled the ball for long stretches (58% possession) and threatened consistently, but ultimately fell just short in a contest brimming with intensity, cards, and late drama.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
4' — Goal
Leganes open the scoring with a fast start, seizing the early initiative.
7' — Goal
Leganes double their lead, putting Granada on the back foot.
16' — Goal
Granada pull one back, halting Leganes’ momentum and shifting the tide.
52' — Goal
Granada equalize, completing their comeback and setting up a tense second half.
90' — Goal
Leganes score a dramatic late winner to seal all three points.
Leganes
Leganes started the match at breakneck speed, capitalizing on their early momentum to score twice within the opening seven minutes. Their 3-2-4-1 formation allowed for fluid transitions and attacking overloads, especially in the first half. Despite ceding possession to Granada, Leganes remained dangerous on the counter and showed impressive efficiency, registering 12 shots on target from 21 attempts. The hosts weathered Granada’s comeback with resilience and snatched a late winner to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Granada CF
Granada responded well to going two goals down early, gradually asserting control through patient possession and incisive play. Their 4-2-3-1 setup provided width and midfield stability, helping them claw back to 2-2 by the 52nd minute. Despite creating plenty of chances (21 shots, 7 on target), Granada were unable to convert late pressure into a result, undone by a late defensive lapse. Their efforts were valiant, but ultimately not enough to avoid defeat.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Leganes deployed a bold 3-2-4-1 formation, prioritizing numbers in midfield and attack, which paid immediate dividends with two early goals. Their setup allowed for quick transitions and overloads in wide areas, but also left them exposed to Granada’s possession-based play. Granada’s 4-2-3-1 provided structure and control, especially as they settled into the game and began to dictate the tempo. Both teams pressed aggressively at times, leading to a high number of fouls and yellow cards. Set pieces were a frequent source of danger, with Leganes earning six corners to Granada’s four. Substitutions in the second half injected fresh energy but did not significantly alter the tactical balance, as both sides continued to push for a winner.
Turning Point
The 90th-minute goal for Leganes, which came against the run of play and decided the contest after Granada had fought back to level terms.
Man of the Match
P. Soko
Led the Leganes attack with relentless energy, played a key role in the early goals, and was a constant threat throughout.
Leganes vs Granada CF: Match Preview
Leganes and Granada both arrive in the upper half of the Segunda División table, level on eight points after solid starts. Leganes remain unbeaten with two wins and two draws, conceding just once, while Granada have mixed two wins with two draws and a single defeat, showing a slightly more open approach but similar points yield. Both sides are looking to consolidate their position in the playoff hunt, with Leganes boasting a formidable defensive record and Granada showing more attacking intent but less consistency at the back.
The statistical matchup is shaped by Leganes' defensive rigidity—just 0.25 goals conceded per game and a 75% clean sheet rate—against a Granada side averaging 1.2 goals scored but also 1.0 conceded per match. Leganes' home matches have been especially tight, with their only home league game finishing 1-0, while Granada's away form is mixed: a 3-1 win at Cordoba offset by a heavy 3-0 defeat at Eibar. Both teams average just over one goal scored per game, and Leganes' matches have yet to see more than two goals. Set-piece threat is limited, with Leganes averaging only 1.2 corners per game, while Granada's higher shot and corner counts suggest more attacking phases but not necessarily more goals.
Given these underlying rates, the model expects a cagey contest with limited clear chances and a high likelihood of a draw. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, reflecting both sides' tendency to keep matches close and the lack of a clear attacking edge. Unless either side departs from its early-season tactical blueprint, a low-scoring stalemate is the statistical baseline.
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
19%
BTTS: Yes
27%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Leganes vs Granada CF Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Leganes vs Granada CF that most previews miss.
- 1Leganes have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches across all competitions.
- 2Granada's last five away games in the league have produced an average of 2.33 goals, but only one clean sheet.
- 3In the last eight head-to-heads, six have ended with under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Leganes vs Granada CF?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Leganes vs Granada CF(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have combined for just 1.0 and 1.2 goals conceded per game this season, and Leganes have yet to feature in a match with more than two goals. The model assigns a 79% probability to under 2.5 goals, driven by Leganes' 0% over 2.5 rate and 75% clean sheet percentage.
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Match Result: Draw
Both sides are locked on 8 points and have shown defensive solidity, with Leganes drawing half their league matches and Granada drawing two of their last three. The model gives the draw a 39% probability, the highest of the three outcomes.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Leganes vs Granada CF Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, tightly contested affair between two sides with similar early-season records and defensive strengths. Leganes' matches have averaged just a goal per game, while Granada have been more open but still average only 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per match. The underlying rates and home/away splits suggest neither attack is likely to dominate, and the draw emerges as the most probable result.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Leganes have conceded only once in four league matches (0.25 per game), with a 75% clean sheet rate.
Match Context
- →Granada's away matches average 2.33 goals, but their only defeat came on the road (0-3 at Eibar).
- →The last five head-to-heads at Butarque have produced just one goal or fewer in four of those games.
🚩 Leganes vs Granada CF Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3 corners for Leganes and 4.2 for Granada CF, for an expected total of 7.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (81%). Over 8.5: 29% · Over 10.5: 11%.
How Leganes and Granada CF Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Leganes vs Granada CF Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Leganeslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Granada CFlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Leganes are unbeaten in the league, with two wins and two draws, and have conceded just once in four matches. Their form string of DWWD reflects a side difficult to break down but not prolific in attack. Granada have also started well, with two wins, two draws, and a single defeat, but their results have been more volatile, including a 3-0 loss at Eibar and a 3-1 win at Cordoba.
Leganes vs Granada CF — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +75% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Leganes vs Granada CF
Leganes have dominated recent head-to-heads at Butarque, winning four of the last five home meetings against Granada, all with clean sheets. Overall, six of the last eight encounters have ended with under 2.5 goals, highlighting the low-scoring nature of this fixture.
Leganes vs Granada CF Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
5
Leganes wins
1
Draws
2
Granada CF wins
Things to Watch: Leganes vs Granada CF
- ⚠️Sample sizes are still small at this stage of the season; a single high-scoring match could skew the underlying rates.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are unknown, which could affect both sides' attacking or defensive balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Leganes 1–1 Granada CFThe model forecasts a 1-1 draw, underpinned by Leganes' league-best defensive record (0.25 goals conceded per game) and a lack of attacking fireworks on either side. The main risk is Granada's higher shot volume (14 per game in their last five), which could translate into a breakthrough if Leganes' defensive standards slip.
Leganes vs Granada CF: Common Questions
Who will win Leganes vs Granada CF?
The model gives Leganes a 37% chance of victory, Granada 24%, and the draw 39%. Both sides have similar points tallies and defensive strengths, making the draw the most likely outcome.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Leganes vs Granada?
Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured at 79%, as Leganes' league matches have all finished with two goals or fewer and both teams average just over one goal scored per game.
Are both teams likely to score in Leganes vs Granada?
Both teams to score is rated at 41%, with 'no' the more likely outcome (59%), reflecting Leganes' 75% clean sheet rate and Granada's two failed-to-score matches in their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Leganes vs Granada CF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.