Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Legia Warszawa
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Motor Lublin
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under: Over 2.5
@ 5.5(+30% edge)
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under: Over 1.5@ 2.25
Model total goals expectation 2.6 (λ 1.5–1.1) with Over 1.5 at 0.73 vs odds 2.25. Motor’s last 5 average 1.8 GF/1.8 GA and Legia’s recent matches still produce late goals; qualitative trends support at least two goals.
Read more ↓
Over/Under: Over 2.5@ 5.5
Poisson Over 2.5 at 0.48 with extreme price 5.5 creates a large value signal. H2H has produced high-scoring games recently (5-2, 3-3), and Motor’s attack has shown spikes (4-0 away at Wisla Plock). Small-stake value despite Legia’s low-scoring home profile.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Motor Lublin Win@ 5
Baseline away win probability 0.28 vs price 5.00. Motor have 5 away wins this season and just won 4-0 away; Legia can be contained offensively (1.13 GF/game season, 0.8 GF last 5). Longshot overlay; small stake.
Read more ↓
More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin Prediction
Legia’s home baseline (7-6-3, 19:12) is resilient rather than prolific, and they’ve stabilized defensively with three clean sheets in five. Motor arrive mid-table as well (away 5-4-7, 23:29) and volatile: a 4-0 away win at Wisla Plock was bookended by narrow defeats. The Poisson model projects a tight game (expected goals 1.5–1.1; BTTS 0.52) with the most likely score 1-1, but recent venue trend points to a marginal 1-0 lean for Legia. First-half patterns suggest caution—recent H2H league meetings were 1-1 at HT—yet Legia’s late-goal tendency is notable (35% of season goals after 76’). Cards and corners models are low (cards ~2.2, corners ~3.8), reinforcing a controlled tempo outlook.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Motor away record 5-4-7; last 5 form DWLLL with a 4-0 away win at Wisla Plock.
Attack
- →Recent H2H league games finished 1-1 and 3-3; earlier 5-2 to Legia.
Defence
- →Legia home record 7-6-3 with only 12 conceded in 16; 3 clean sheets in last 5.
Match Context
- →Season over 2.5 rates: Legia 37.5%, Motor 48.5%; model total goals 2.6.
- →Poisson 1x2: 0.46/0.26/0.28 vs odds implying heavier home favoritism.
🚩 Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.1 corners for Legia Warszawa and 4.3 for Motor Lublin, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 22%.
How Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Legia Warszawalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Motor Lublinlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Legia’s last five: WWLWD with three clean sheets and only 0.8 GF/1.0 GA; several 1-0 outcomes signal a pragmatic approach. Motor’s last five: DWLLL but 1.8 GF/1.8 GA, illustrating higher variance—big win (4-0) alongside scoreless defeats.
Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin
Recent H2H leans competitive rather than one-sided (two straight league draws), though Legia previously posted a 5-2 at home; HT trends skew to scoring (1-1 twice).
Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
3
Legia Warszawa wins
3
Draws
1
Motor Lublin wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin
Model vs price highlights overs as standout edges: Over 1.5 (0.73 vs 2.25) and Over 2.5 (0.48 vs 5.5). 1x2 also shows a mild overlay on Motor (0.28 vs 5.0). Given Legia’s low-scoring home bias, we prioritize Over 1.5 (broader pathway) and keep Over 2.5 and the away 1x2 as small-stake value plays.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin
- ⚠️O/U prices provided are extreme (e.g., Over 2.5 at 5.5, Under 2.5 at 1.11) and may be misaligned/outlier—stake sizing reflects potential pricing anomaly risk.
- ⚠️Many recent match stat fields are null; reliance on season splits and outcomes adds uncertainty.
- ⚠️End-of-season motivation not explicit; mid-table status could affect intensity and rotation.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.