Lithuania vs Suriname Prediction
Lithuania vs Suriname: Model Sides with Suriname in Low-Scoring Friendly
International Friendly · World
Lithuania
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Suriname
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Lithuania vs Suriname Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Lithuania vs Suriname?
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The Case For This Lithuania vs Suriname Prediction
Lithuania and Suriname meet in a rare international friendly, with the model giving Suriname a slight edge. Suriname's Elo rating stands at 1431, 140 points higher than Lithuania's 1291, translating to a 39% win probability for the visitors compared to 32% for the hosts. Both teams have shown similar recent form, each collecting 7 points from their last five matches, but Suriname's higher ranking and slightly stronger expected-goals output tip the balance. The predicted scoreline is a narrow 1-0 win for Suriname, with the model's final expected-goals (λ) values at 1.07 for Lithuania and 1.21 for Suriname after accounting for both Elo and recent momentum. The most likely result is a tight contest, with a draw (28%) also a significant possibility. Lack of detailed player and chance data means the model leans heavily on team-level metrics and recent results.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Model's final expected-goals: Lithuania 1.07, Suriname 1.21 (after momentum adjustment).
- →Recent form is nearly identical: both sides have 7 points from their last 5 matches.
Match Context
- →Suriname's Elo rating of 1431 is 140 points above Lithuania's 1291.
- →Most probable scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%).
- →Low confidence due to sparse player and chance data.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.02 · 1.58
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.07 · 1.21
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent form is neutral — no momentum adjustment.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Lithuania goals, columns = Suriname goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
0-1
12.3%
1-0
10.9%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Lithuania vs Suriname that most previews miss.
- 1Lithuania have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 matches, conceding just 0.6 goals per game over that span.
- 2Suriname average 9.2 shots and 4 shots on target per match in their last 5, compared to Lithuania's 7.6 and 2.6.
- 3Both teams have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches, contributing to the model's 54% probability for 'both teams to score: no'.
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with Elo ratings, where Suriname's 1431 gives them a clear baseline advantage over Lithuania's 1291. This Elo gap translates into an expected score split of 0.309 for Lithuania and 0.691 for Suriname. Next, the model would normally refine this using attacking and defensive factors, but due to limited data for both teams, these are set to neutral (factor 1), relying on team-level trends. Recent form momentum is then layered in: both teams have a 0.973 attack multiplier, but Lithuania's defence gets a boost with a 0.85 'leak' factor, reflecting a recent tendency to concede less. This nudges Lithuania's expected goals down slightly, but the overall effect is modest. The blended expected-goals line settles at 1.07 for Lithuania and 1.21 for Suriname. These values are fed into a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities, with a 1-1 draw, 0-1 Suriname win, and 1-0 Lithuania win emerging as the most likely outcomes.
More Friendlies Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Lithuania vs Suriname
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value betting analysis cannot be performed. Should odds appear, comparing the model's 39% win probability for Suriname and 32% for Lithuania would be the key angles to watch for potential value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Lithuania vs Suriname Confirmed Lineups
Lithuania
Suriname
Lithuania vs Suriname Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Lithuanialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Surinamelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Both Lithuania and Suriname have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches, showing similar form. Lithuania have been slightly more solid defensively, conceding only 0.6 goals per game recently, while Suriname have averaged 1.2 goals both scored and conceded. However, international data is limited and should be interpreted with caution.
Lithuania vs Suriname — Last 4 Matches
🚩 Lithuania vs Suriname Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Lithuania and 4 for Suriname, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
What History Says: Lithuania vs Suriname
There is no recorded head-to-head history between Lithuania and Suriname, making this a unique encounter. The model relies entirely on team-level data and recent form in the absence of direct matchups.
Lithuania vs Suriname Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Lithuania wins
1
Draws
0
Suriname wins
Things to Watch: Lithuania vs Suriname
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️Model confidence is low due to sparse player-level and chance creation data.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable, especially with limited recent competitive fixtures.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Lithuania 0–1 SurinameThe model predicts a narrow 1-0 win for Suriname, driven primarily by their Elo advantage and slightly higher expected-goals figure (1.21 vs 1.07). However, with both teams showing similar recent form and the most likely scoreline actually being a 1-1 draw (13%), this is a low-confidence call. The biggest risk to the model's verdict is the lack of granular player and chance data, meaning any unexpected individual brilliance or defensive lapse could swing the result.
Lithuania vs Suriname: Common Questions
Who will win Lithuania vs Suriname?
The model gives Suriname a 39% chance of winning, Lithuania a 32% chance, and a draw at 28%. Suriname are slight favourites, but the probabilities are close.
What is the predicted score for Lithuania vs Suriname?
The model predicts a 1-0 win for Suriname, with the three most likely scorelines being 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), and 1-0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Lithuania vs Suriname?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46%, with 'no' (at 54%) being slightly more likely according to the model.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lithuania vs Suriname: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.