Mallorca vs Las Palmas Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Mallorca
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Las Palmas
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Mallorca vs Las Palmas
Mallorca vs Las Palmas: Match Preview
Mallorca return to Son Moix after a narrow home defeat, but their overall start has been robust: four wins from seven and just three goals conceded, with a 3-0-1 home record and a +6 home goal difference. Las Palmas sit mid-table after a patchy run (LLWDL), having lost their last two, and have shipped eight goals in four away games despite scoring seven themselves. With Mallorca six points off the summit and Las Palmas already showing defensive frailties, both sides have clear incentives—Mallorca to keep pace with the leaders, Las Palmas to stabilise their campaign.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by Mallorca’s defensive discipline and Las Palmas’ volatility on the road. Mallorca average just 0.43 goals conceded per game and have posted four clean sheets in their last five, while Las Palmas’ away matches average 3.75 total goals but are skewed by a single 5-2 defeat. Mallorca’s attack is not prolific (1.14 goals per game), but their shot volume (12.8 per match, 4.4 on target) is steady, and they rarely allow high-quality chances. Both teams’ matches trend under 2.5 goals: 6 of 7 for Mallorca, 4 of 7 for Las Palmas.
The model expects a controlled, low-scoring contest, with Mallorca’s structure likely to stifle Las Palmas’ inconsistent attack. The likeliest scenario is a single-goal home win, with the most probable alternatives being a goalless draw or a 2-0. A defensive stalemate is favoured unless Las Palmas can capitalise on set pieces or force an early breakthrough.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
31%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Mallorca vs Las Palmas that most previews miss.
- 1Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 league matches this season.
- 2Las Palmas away games average 3.75 goals, but they have conceded 2+ in three of four on the road.
- 3Only two of the last eight H2Hs have seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Mallorca vs Las Palmas(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Mallorca and Las Palmas trend heavily towards low-scoring matches, with Mallorca seeing under 2.5 goals in 6 of 7 league games (14.3% over 2.5) and Las Palmas conceding just 0.43 per game away from home. The model projects a 74% chance of under 2.5 goals.
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BTTS: No
Mallorca have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 and have not seen BTTS in any of their last 5 matches; Las Palmas have failed to score in 1 of their last 5, but their attack is less effective away. The model assigns a 71% probability to at least one side failing to score.
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The Case For This Mallorca vs Las Palmas Prediction
Mallorca’s home defensive record is the standout statistic in this matchup, with just one goal conceded in four home games and a 71% season clean sheet rate. Las Palmas arrive with a negative goal difference and a leaky away defence, conceding eight in four on the road, but their attack has been more productive than Mallorca’s recent opposition. The overall goal environment is projected to be low, with Mallorca’s matches averaging just 1.57 total goals and Las Palmas’ away fixtures only marginally higher.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Mallorca's home defensive record: 1 goal conceded in 4 home games.
- →Las Palmas have conceded 8 goals in 4 away matches this season.
Match Context
- →Mallorca matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 6 of 7 league fixtures.
🚩 Mallorca vs Las Palmas Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Mallorca and 4.3 for Las Palmas, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Mallorca and Las Palmas Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Mallorcalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mallorca have won three of their last five and boast four clean sheets in that stretch, with their only recent blemish a 0-1 home loss to Almeria. Las Palmas, meanwhile, have lost three of their last five and conceded ten goals in that run, including a 3-2 defeat at Eibar last time out. The momentum favours Mallorca, especially at home.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +71.43% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Mallorca vs Las Palmas
Mallorca have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning three of the last four and conceding only twice in those games. Draws have been frequent in this fixture historically, but Mallorca’s home record against Las Palmas is especially strong, with two wins and one draw in the last three at Son Moix.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
4
Mallorca wins
3
Draws
1
Las Palmas wins
Things to Watch: Mallorca vs Las Palmas
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Recent Las Palmas away matches have been higher scoring, but their underlying xG and shot data do not support a repeat.
- ⚠️A single early goal could open up the game and break the low-scoring trend.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Mallorca 1–0 Las PalmasA 1-0 Mallorca win is the model’s baseline, driven by their league-best defensive record at home and Las Palmas’ tendency to concede multiple goals away. The strongest data point is Mallorca’s 71% clean sheet rate, but if Las Palmas’ attack finds early success, the low-scoring projection could unravel.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas: Common Questions
Who will win Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Mallorca are favoured with a 49% win probability, compared to 18% for Las Palmas and 33% for the draw. The edge is driven by Mallorca’s defensive record and home form.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Both teams to score is unlikely, with the model assigning a 71% probability to 'No'. Mallorca have not seen BTTS in their last five matches and have kept five clean sheets in seven.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured at 74%. Mallorca matches have gone under this line in 6 of 7 league games, and their home defence is among the league’s best.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mallorca vs Las Palmas: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.