Molde vs Start Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Molde
Full Time
6 - 1
AI predicted 3 - 1
Start
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Molde Win
Match Result
8.6/10Molde Run Riot at Aker Stadion with 6-1 Rout of Start
Molde delivered a scintillating attacking performance at Aker Stadion, overwhelming Start 6-1 in a one-sided Eliteserien encounter. The hosts dominated from the outset, controlling 68% possession and peppering the Start goal with 21 shots, 12 of which were on target. After a measured opening, Molde broke the deadlock in the 29th minute and never looked back, adding a second before halftime to take command. Start managed a brief response early in the second half, pulling one back in the 54th minute to make it 2-1, but Molde responded ruthlessly. Three goals in a devastating 20-minute spell put the result beyond doubt, as the home side's relentless attack exposed Start's defensive frailties. The visitors, set up in a defensive 5-3-2, simply could not withstand the pressure, conceding four second-half goals as Molde showcased their attacking depth and clinical finishing.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
3 - 1
Actual
6 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
29' — Goal
Molde open the scoring, capitalising on sustained pressure.
39' — Goal
Molde double their lead before halftime, putting Start on the back foot.
54' — Goal
Start pull one back through H. Lorentzen, briefly threatening a comeback.
56' — Goal
Molde restore their two-goal cushion almost immediately after conceding.
65' — Goal
Molde make it 4-1, effectively ending Start's hopes.
76' — Goal
Molde add a fifth, turning the result into a rout.
79' — Goal
Molde cap off the scoring spree with their sixth goal.
Yellow Cards' — Cards
Both sides receive two yellow cards each in a competitive encounter.
Molde
Molde were irresistible going forward, dictating the tempo with 68% possession and creating chance after chance. Their 21 shots, 12 on target, reflected their attacking intent and ability to break down Start's deep defensive block. The midfield quartet orchestrated play superbly, while the front two were clinical in front of goal. Defensively, Molde were largely untroubled, save for a brief lapse that allowed Start's consolation goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Start
Start set up defensively in a 5-3-2 and were under siege for much of the match, conceding 68% possession and facing 21 shots. While they managed a goal early in the second half to give themselves hope, they struggled to contain Molde's relentless attack. Their six corners and 10 shots showed some attacking intent, but they lacked the quality and composure to trouble the home defence consistently. The defensive line was overwhelmed, particularly after the break.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Molde's 4-4-2 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield and stretch Start's five-man defence, using width and quick interchanges to create overloads. The home side's pressing forced turnovers high up the pitch, and their fullbacks provided attacking support, pinning Start deep in their own half. Start's 5-3-2 was designed for containment but left them isolated up front and unable to build sustained attacks. After Start's goal, Molde adjusted by increasing their tempo and pressing even higher, quickly regaining control and scoring four more times. Set pieces offered Start some respite, but Molde's organisation nullified any real threat.
Turning Point
Molde's immediate response to Start's goal in the 56th minute, restoring a two-goal lead and crushing any momentum the visitors had gained.
Man of the Match
E. Breivik
Led the line with energy and quality, key in Molde's attacking dominance and directly involved in the scoring.
Molde vs Start: Match Preview
Molde enter this fixture in fourth, chasing a European spot and buoyed by four wins in their last five league games. Their home form is robust, with seven wins from eleven at Aker Stadion, while Start sit bottom of the table, having lost nine of eleven away and conceding nearly three goals per road match. The gulf in points (36 vs 16) and goal difference (+12 vs -22) underlines the disparity.
The statistical matchup is stark: Molde average 2.18 goals per home game and have scored 3.2 per match across their last five in all competitions. Start, by contrast, have conceded 29 in 11 away league fixtures and allowed three or more in over half of those. Both teams trend towards high-scoring games (Molde over 2.5 in 67%, Start in 57%), and neither keeps many clean sheets (Molde 19%, Start 10%). Molde's shot output and possession at home are strong, while Start's away attack is limited, averaging under one goal per trip.
Given these rates, the model expects Molde to dominate territory and chances, with the likeliest outcomes featuring three or more goals. Start's recent cup and friendly wins show some attacking life, but their defensive frailty on the road makes a Molde win with both teams scoring the most probable scenario.
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Expected goals · model says 2.40
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Molde vs Start Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Molde vs Start that most previews miss.
- 1Molde have scored at least three goals in each of the last three home league meetings with Start.
- 2Start's away games average 3.55 goals per match (10 scored, 29 conceded in 11).
- 3Molde's last five league matches feature a 10:3 second-half to first-half goal split, indicating late scoring strength.
Who do you think wins: Molde vs Start?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Molde vs Start(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Molde Win
Molde have won 7 of 11 at home and average 2.18 goals per home game, while Start have lost 9 of 11 away and concede 2.64 per away match. The model gives Molde a 68% win probability.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' season over 2.5 rates are high (Molde 66.7%, Start 57.1%), and their last 5 matches average 3.8 and 3.8 goals per game respectively.
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BTTS: Yes
Molde have kept just 19% clean sheets, and Start have scored in 4 of their last 5 in all competitions despite their poor away record.
More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Molde vs Start Prediction
Statistically, this is a high-scoring fixture with a pronounced home/away split. Molde's attack at Aker Stadion is among the league's most productive, while Start's away defence is the weakest in the division. Expect Molde to control the shot count and create sustained pressure, but Start's recent scoring uptick means a clean sheet is far from assured.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Start have lost 9 of 11 away matches and have the league's worst away goal difference (-19).
Defence
- →Molde average 2.18 goals per home game; Start concede 2.64 per away game.
- →Molde's last 5: 3.2 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game; Start's last 5: 2.4 scored, 1.4 conceded.
🚩 Molde vs Start Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Molde and 5 for Start, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Molde and Start Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Molde vs Start Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Moldelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Startlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Molde have won four of their last five in all competitions, averaging 3.2 goals per game and keeping three clean sheets. Start's recent form is patchier, but they've won three of their last five (including cup and friendly matches), though their last league away outing ended in a 3-0 defeat at Sandefjord.
Molde vs Start — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 69.57% of games this season
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Molde vs Start
Molde have dominated this matchup historically, unbeaten in the last seven meetings and winning all four at home, often by wide margins (5-0 in 2020, 3-1 in 2018). The most recent clash finished 1-1 in Start, but Molde's home advantage has proved decisive in this fixture.
Molde vs Start Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
5
Molde wins
3
Draws
0
Start wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Molde vs Start
No bookmaker odds are available, so value calculations cannot be made. However, the model's strong lean towards Molde and the over 2.5 goals market suggests these would be the first places to check for positive expected value once odds are posted.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Molde vs Start
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies and cup matches may inflate both teams' attacking stats.
- ⚠️Molde's clean sheet rate is low (19%), so a Start goal is plausible despite their away struggles.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Molde 3–1 StartThe model projects a 3-1 home win, anchored by Molde's 2.18 goals per home game and Start's league-worst 2.64 conceded per away match. The main risk lies in overestimating Molde's defensive solidity, as their clean sheet rate is just 19%, so a higher-scoring contest or a late Start goal could skew the final margin.
Molde vs Start: Common Questions
Who will win Molde vs Start?
Molde are strong favourites with a 68% modelled probability of victory, based on their 7 home wins from 11 and Start's 9 away defeats in 11 trips. The draw is rated at 19%, and a Start upset at just 13%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Molde vs Start?
There's a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging above 3.5 total goals per game in their respective home and away fixtures. Historical head-to-heads at this ground also favour high scores.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Start?
Both teams to score is rated 57% likely, as Molde keep clean sheets in just 19% of matches and Start have found the net in 4 of their last 5 despite a poor away record.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Molde vs Start: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.