New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands Prediction
New Caledonia Hold Elo Edge Over Solomon Islands in Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
New Caledonia
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Solomon Islands
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands Prediction
New Caledonia enter this international friendly with a significant Elo advantage of 232 points (1286 vs 1054), translating to a 58.5% win probability according to the model. The predicted scoreline is a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts, with the most likely outcomes all favouring New Caledonia by a slim margin. Despite both teams lacking detailed recent attacking or defensive data, the analytics blend historical Elo strength with modest recent form to project a low-scoring contest. Momentum adjustments have been applied for both sides, slightly reducing their expected attacking output. New Caledonia’s recent form is steady, while the Solomon Islands have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 3.6 goals across their last five matches. However, the model’s final expected goals line—1.81 for New Caledonia and 0.91 for the Solomon Islands—reflects both the Elo gulf and these recent trends, but also acknowledges the limitations of sparse data in this Oceania matchup.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Momentum adjustment slightly dampens both teams’ attack (0.973 multiplier).
Defence
- →Solomon Islands have conceded 3.6 goals per game over their last five matches.
Match Context
- →New Caledonia’s Elo rating is 232 points higher than Solomon Islands (1286 vs 1054).
- →Model’s final expected goals: 1.81 (New Caledonia), 0.91 (Solomon Islands).
- →The most probable scoreline is 1-0 to New Caledonia (11.9% probability).
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.76 · 0.84
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.81 · 0.91
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Solomon Islands's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = New Caledonia goals, columns = Solomon Islands goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.9%
1-1
10.8%
2-0
10.8%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands that most previews miss.
- 1Despite their defensive struggles, the Solomon Islands have scored in four of their last five matches.
- 2Head-to-head is perfectly balanced: 2 wins each and 3 draws from their last 7 meetings.
- 3New Caledonia’s last five matches average just 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with an Elo baseline, where New Caledonia’s 232-point rating advantage sets the foundation for a strong home expected score (0.792 vs 0.208). Because detailed xG, finishing, and chance quality data are not available for either side, the model relies on Elo-driven expected goals (1.76 vs 0.84) and blends these with a generic xG line, weighted 60% towards the more robust Elo signal. This produces blended expected goals of 1.58 for New Caledonia and 1.02 for the Solomon Islands. Recent form is factored in via momentum multipliers: both teams’ attack is slightly suppressed (0.973), while the Solomon Islands’ defensive leakiness (1.18) is noted but not enough to swing the final projection dramatically. After applying these adjustments, the final expected goals settle at 1.81 for New Caledonia and 0.91 for the visitors. These rates are then run through a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities, with 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0 emerging as the most likely results.
More Friendlies Predictions
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
New Caledonialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Solomon Islandslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New Caledonia’s recent form is mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. The Solomon Islands, however, are on a tougher run with just one point from their last five matches and an average of 3.6 goals conceded per game. Both sides’ momentum multipliers slightly suppress their attacking output, reflecting patchy recent results.
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands
The head-to-head record is finely balanced: in seven recent meetings, each side has won twice with three draws. The last two encounters ended level, including a 0-0 draw in November 2025. Matches have often been close, with neither team dominating the fixture historically.
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
2
New Caledonia wins
3
Draws
2
Solomon Islands wins
Things to Watch: New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available at present, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies often feature experimental lineups and unpredictable motivation.
- ⚠️Sparse attacking and defensive data for both teams increases model uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
New Caledonia 1–0 Solomon IslandsThe model’s strongest signal is New Caledonia’s 58.5% win probability, underpinned by a 232-point Elo advantage and a final expected goals line of 1.81 to 0.91. The predicted 1-0 scoreline reflects both teams’ recent low attacking output and the hosts’ defensive solidity. However, with both sides lacking robust attacking data and the Solomon Islands’ tendency to score even when losing, a draw or narrow away win cannot be ruled out.
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands: Common Questions
Who will win New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands?
The model gives New Caledonia a 58.5% chance of victory, compared to 18.7% for the Solomon Islands and a 22.8% probability of a draw.
What is the most likely score in New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands?
The most probable scoreline is 1-0 to New Caledonia, with an 11.9% likelihood according to the model’s Poisson projection.
Will both teams score in New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands?
The model rates both teams to score (BTTS) at 50.1%, indicating a near-even chance of both sides finding the net.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 18 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.