Oldham vs Accrington ST Predictions

Oldham PredictionsAccrington ST PredictionsLeague TwoH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
League TwoLeague Two · England
medium confidence
Oldham

Oldham

AI Predicted Score

1 - 1

Accrington ST

Accrington ST

🗓️ Saturday, 10 Oct 2026 at 12:30 BST (venue time) · 11:30 UTC (your time)📍 Boundary Park, Oldham

Win Probability (1X2)

Oldham 32%Draw 36%Accrington ST 32%

Best Value Pick

See full breakdown below

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Oldham vs Accrington ST: Match Preview

Oldham and Accrington Stanley both sit on 7 points from 8 games, hovering just above the relegation zone. Oldham have lost four of their last five league matches, conceding 10 goals in that stretch, while Accrington are unbeaten in three but have only one win all season. Both clubs are under pressure to halt negative trends, with defensive frailties evident throughout September.

Statistically, the matchup is defined by below-average defences and moderate attacking output. Oldham's home scoring rate stands at 1.75 goals per game, but they also concede 1.5 at Boundary Park. Accrington's away defence is porous (2.0 goals conceded per away game), and their attack on the road (1.0 goals per game) is only marginally better than Oldham's. Both sides average nearly 4 shots on target per match in their last five, but Accrington's discipline is a concern, collecting 3.4 yellow cards per game recently.

The underlying rates point to a balanced contest with a moderate goal expectation: over 2.5 goals is slightly favoured (54%), and both teams to score is more likely than not (59%). The most probable outcome is a draw, with both sides likely to find the net but neither showing the consistency to take control. A 1-1 scoreline best fits the statistical profile.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Oldham1.35

Expected goals · model says 1.35

Accrington ST1.35

Expected goals · model says 1.35

Win Probability
Oldham 37% Draw 26% Accrington ST 37%

Over 2.5 Goals

51%

BTTS: Yes

55%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Oldham vs Accrington ST Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
32%
36%
32%
Oldham 32%Draw 36%Accrington ST 32%
Both Teams to Score
59%
41%
Yes 59%No 41%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
54%
46%
Over 2.5 54%Under 2.5 46%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
57%
43%
Over 9.5 57%Under 9.5 43%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Oldham vs Accrington ST that most previews miss.

  • 1Accrington ST's away matches average 3.0 total goals, with 75% finishing over 2.5 goals.
  • 2Oldham have scored in 3 of 4 home games but failed to score in half of their last six overall.
  • 3Accrington are averaging 3.4 yellow cards per match over their last five, the highest rate in League Two.

Who do you think wins: Oldham vs Accrington ST?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Oldham vs Accrington ST Prediction

Both Oldham and Accrington ST enter this fixture level on points near the bottom of League Two, with neither side showing sustained momentum. Oldham's home attack (1.75 goals per game at Boundary Park) faces an Accrington side conceding 2.0 goals per away match, but the visitors have been marginally more productive in attack overall. The statistical profile points to a contest shaped by modest attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities, with both sides averaging over 1.3 goals conceded per game and a combined over 2.5 goals rate above 55%. The likeliest outcome is a closely-fought draw, with both teams to score a shade more likely than not.

Key Factors at a Glance

Defence

  • →Oldham average 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per home game this season.
  • →Accrington ST's away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 4 scored, 8 conceded.
  • →Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of 8 league matches.

🚩 Oldham vs Accrington ST Corners Prediction

medium confidence
10.2expected total corners
Over 57%
Under 43%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Oldham and 5.2 for Accrington ST, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How Oldham and Accrington ST Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Oldham vs Accrington ST Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

OldhamOldhamlast 5 matches
Calum KavanaghXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Noah ChilversXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

F. Fawunmisub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Accrington STAccrington STlast 5 matches
C. Catonsub/out
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

Josh WoodsXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

D. MatthewsXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

T. WaltonXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Oldham have lost four of their last five league games, conceding 10 goals in that span, and have failed to score in two of those matches. Accrington ST are unbeaten in three but have only one win in eight, with a tendency to draw (four stalemates). Both teams arrive struggling for momentum and defensive solidity.

Oldham vs Accrington ST — Last 8 Matches

OldhamOldhamLast 8 results
L1-4
L0-2
L1-2
L0-2
D1-1
W3-0
L1-2
W2-0
Lvs Salford City1-4
L@ Rochdale0-2
Lvs Chesterfield1-2
L@ Tranmere0-2
D@ Fleetwood Town1-1
Wvs Swindon Town3-0
L@ Colchester1-2
Wvs Port Vale2-0

Strengths

  • +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game

Concerns

  • −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
  • −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
  • −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Accrington STAccrington STLast 8 results
D1-1
D0-0
L1-2
W3-2
D2-2
L2-3
L0-2
D2-2
D@ Swindon Town1-1
Dvs Newport County0-0
L@ Barnet1-2
Wvs Crawley Town3-2
Dvs Grimsby2-2
L@ Walsall2-3
L@ Exeter City0-2
Dvs Colchester2-2

Strengths

  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games

What History Says: Oldham vs Accrington ST

Accrington ST have the edge historically, winning three of the last six meetings, but Oldham won the most recent clash 3-0 at home. Two of the last six matches ended 0-0, but otherwise both teams have usually found the net in this fixture.

Oldham vs Accrington ST Head-to-Head History

Last 6 meetings between these sides

1

Oldham wins

2

Draws

3

Accrington ST wins

17%33% draws50%
2 May 26Oldham vs Accrington ST3-0
29 Nov 25Accrington ST vs Oldham1-0
5 Aug 25Accrington ST vs Oldham3-1
24 Aug 21Oldham vs Accrington ST0-0
15 Aug 20Oldham vs Accrington ST0-0
8 Oct 19Oldham vs Accrington ST0-3

Things to Watch: Oldham vs Accrington ST

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value and bet recommendations are omitted.
  • ⚠️Small sample size for head-to-head (6 matches, spread over multiple years).
  • ⚠️Recent form is poor for both sides, increasing outcome variance.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Oldham 1–1 Accrington ST

The model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' near-identical defensive records (Oldham 1.63, Accrington 1.75 conceded per game) and lack of recent wins. The single strongest data point is Accrington's away defensive record (2.0 goals conceded per away match), but Oldham's poor form and finishing mean a high-scoring home win is unlikely. The likeliest way this prediction goes wrong is if either side capitalises on early defensive errors to open up the game.

Oldham vs Accrington ST: Common Questions

Who will win Oldham vs Accrington ST?

The model rates this as a near coin-flip: Oldham win 32%, draw 36%, Accrington win 32%. Both sides have identical points and similar defensive records, so a draw is marginally the most likely outcome.

Will both teams score in Oldham vs Accrington ST?

Both teams to score is rated at 59% probability, reflecting that both sides have scored in over half their recent matches and neither has kept a clean sheet in 7 of 8 league games.

Is over 2.5 goals likely in Oldham vs Accrington ST?

Over 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54%, with both teams averaging over 1.3 goals conceded per game and Accrington's away games seeing 75% over 2.5 goals so far this season.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Oldham vs Accrington ST: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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Model Accuracy

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