Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
Olympique Béja
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
ES Sahel
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
6.5/10ES Sahel Survive Red Card Drama to Edge Olympique Béja 2-1 Away
ES Sahel claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Olympique Béja at the Boujemaa Kmiti Stadium, capitalizing on a strong first-half display before weathering a spirited home fightback. The visitors struck twice within the opening 20 minutes, putting Béja on the back foot early. Olympique Béja responded with a goal before halftime, but their momentum was stymied by a costly red card in the second half. Despite being reduced to ten men, Béja pushed for an equalizer but were unable to break down a resolute ES Sahel defense. The match was punctuated by a flurry of cards, with the hosts picking up four yellows and a red, underlining the intensity and physicality of the contest. Ultimately, ES Sahel's early clinical edge proved decisive as they held on for all three points.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
9' — Goal
ES Sahel open the scoring, silencing the home crowd early.
20' — Goal
ES Sahel double their advantage, taking firm control.
36' — Goal
Olympique Béja pull one back, setting up a tense second half.
Second Half' — Red Card
Olympique Béja reduced to ten men, severely hampering their comeback hopes.
Olympique Béja
Olympique Béja endured a nightmare start, conceding twice in the opening 20 minutes, but rallied well to halve the deficit before the break. Their efforts to claw back into the match were hampered by disciplinary issues, culminating in a second-half red card that left them with a mountain to climb. Despite showing grit and determination, Béja's attacking efforts fizzled out against a compact ES Sahel rearguard.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ES Sahel
ES Sahel made a statement of intent from the outset, netting twice in the first 20 minutes to seize control. Their attacking verve gave way to defensive discipline as the match wore on, especially after Béja's red card. Though they allowed a goal before halftime, ES Sahel managed the game well in the second half, absorbing pressure and limiting clear chances for the hosts.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
While specific formations are unavailable, the match flow suggests ES Sahel started aggressively, pressing high and capitalizing on early opportunities. Their two-goal cushion allowed them to drop deeper and focus on defensive solidity as Béja chased the game. Olympique Béja, after a sluggish start, increased their attacking intent and likely shifted to a more offensive posture, but their momentum was derailed by disciplinary issues. Set pieces and physical duels were a significant feature, as evidenced by the high card count, with both teams showing a willingness to commit tactical fouls to disrupt rhythm.
Turning Point
The red card to Olympique Béja in the second half, which extinguished their growing momentum and made an equalizer unlikely.
Man of the Match
ES Sahel goalscorer (9')
Set the tone with the opening goal and led by example in both attack and defense.
Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel: Match Preview
Olympique Béja enter this fixture still searching for their first win of the season, having drawn two and lost two of their opening four matches, with just three goals scored and five conceded. ES Sahel have fared only slightly better, sitting four points above Béja with one win, one draw, and two defeats, but their away form has been poor, losing both road games and conceding twice in each.
The matchup is defined by modest attacking output and defensive frailty on both sides. Olympique Béja average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match, while ES Sahel post 1.25 for and 1.5 against. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, and BTTS has landed in four of those games for each. Notably, ES Sahel have scored all six of their last five goals after half-time, suggesting a tendency for late action, while Olympique Béja have split their last five goals evenly between halves.
With neither side showing a clear edge in form or underlying numbers, the model projects a closely-fought contest with limited scoring opportunities. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting both teams’ tendency to concede but lack of attacking punch. Under 2.5 goals is favoured, with the draw the likeliest result given the statistical deadlock.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel that most previews miss.
- 1Six of the last ten H2H meetings between these sides have finished under 2.5 goals.
- 2ES Sahel have scored all six of their last five goals in the second half, with none before the break.
- 3Olympique Béja’s home record this season is 0W, 1D, 1L, with just two goals scored in two matches.
Who do you think wins: Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams have averaged just over a goal scored and conceded per game this season (Olympique Béja 0.75 for, 1.25 against; ES Sahel 1.25 for, 1.5 against), and four of the last five matches for each have seen both teams score. The 1-1 has also appeared in recent H2H and fits the underlying rates.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
The combined over 2.5 goal rate for these sides is just 37.5% (Olympique Béja 25%, ES Sahel 50%), and both have failed to keep a clean sheet but rarely score more than once. The model projects 0.67 probability for under 2.5 goals.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a low-scoring, evenly-matched contest between two sides struggling to assert themselves early in the Ligue 1 season. Olympique Béja remain winless after four matches (0W, 2D, 2L), while ES Sahel have just one win and two defeats, with both teams conceding more than they score. The underlying rates point to defensive vulnerabilities but limited attacking firepower. Olympique Béja average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game, while ES Sahel’s figures are 1.25 scored and 1.5 conceded. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five, and both have seen four of their last five feature BTTS. However, the majority of games stay under 2.5 goals, with Olympique Béja’s over 2.5 rate at just 25%. Notably, both teams have been stronger in the second half, with ES Sahel’s last five yielding six second-half goals to none in the first. Given the home side’s inability to win and the away side’s poor away record (0W, 0D, 2L, 2-4 goal difference), the model sees a draw as the likeliest outcome, with a 1-1 scoreline the modal result. The expected goal environment is modest, and with neither attack in rhythm, a tight contest is anticipated.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Olympique Béja have not won in their opening four matches, scoring only three goals.
Defence
- →ES Sahel have lost both away games this season, conceding four goals in those matches.
- →Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches.
How Olympique Béja and ES Sahel Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Olympique Béjalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Sahellast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Olympique Béja are winless in their last five, drawing three and losing two, and have managed just three goals across those matches. ES Sahel have one win in five, but their away form is poor, with two defeats and only two goals scored on the road. Both teams are conceding more than they score, and neither has registered a clean sheet this season.
Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel
Olympique Béja have had the better of recent encounters, winning four of the last ten and drawing four, including a 3-1 home victory in April 2026. Draws are common, and low-scoring games dominate, with six of the last ten meetings going under 2.5 goals. The fixture has produced a mix of results but rarely sees either side pull away.
Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Olympique Béja wins
3
Draws
3
ES Sahel wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value edges cannot be calculated. The model would look for value on the draw or under 2.5 goals if market odds were above 2.60 and 1.50 respectively, given the underlying rates. Without odds, recommended bets are based solely on statistical likelihoods.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️Small sample size (4 matches) for season averages increases variance.
- ⚠️No shot, possession, or set-piece data available for either team.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Olympique Béja 1–1 ES SahelThe model’s final call is a 1-1 draw, driven primarily by both teams’ low scoring rates and the high frequency of draws in their recent H2H history. The single strongest data point is that six of the last ten meetings have finished under 2.5 goals. The main risk is that either defence collapses, as neither has kept a clean sheet this season, which could tip the balance toward a 2-1 result either way.
Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel: Common Questions
Who will win Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel?
The model gives Olympique Béja a 34% chance to win, ES Sahel a 28% chance, and a draw a 38% probability. Both sides have struggled for wins, so the draw is the likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel?
There is a 54% probability that both teams will score, based on both sides having BTTS in four of their last five matches and neither keeping a clean sheet this season.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel?
The model projects a 67% probability for under 2.5 goals, with six of the last ten H2H meetings also finishing below this line and both teams averaging just over a goal scored per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.