Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
Olympique Béja
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 0
US Ben Guerdane
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10US Ben Guerdane Edge Olympique Béja in Hard-Fought Away Win
US Ben Guerdane claimed a valuable 2-1 victory away at Olympique Béja at Boujemaa Kmiti Stadium, capitalizing on a strong first-half showing. The visitors struck twice before the interval, seizing control of the match with goals in the 25th and 40th minutes. Olympique Béja, despite a spirited second-half response and a goal on 69 minutes, were ultimately unable to overturn the deficit. The contest was marked by physicality, with a total of four yellow cards issued—three to the visitors and one to the hosts. Béja's late push injected drama into the closing stages, but Ben Guerdane’s defensive resilience and game management saw them hold on for all three points.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
25' — Goal
US Ben Guerdane take the lead with the opening goal.
40' — Goal
US Ben Guerdane double their advantage before half-time.
69' — Goal
Olympique Béja pull one back to set up a tense finish.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Three Ben Guerdane players and one Béja player booked in a physical encounter.
Olympique Béja
Olympique Béja struggled to impose themselves in the first half, conceding twice and finding it difficult to break down a disciplined Ben Guerdane side. Their fortunes improved after the break, as they mounted pressure and managed to pull a goal back in the 69th minute, sparking hopes of a comeback. However, their efforts were stymied by resolute defending from the visitors and a lack of clinical finishing in the final third. A single yellow card reflected a relatively controlled approach, but Béja ultimately paid the price for their sluggish start and could not capitalize on their late momentum.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
US Ben Guerdane
US Ben Guerdane executed their game plan effectively, striking twice in the opening 40 minutes to take a commanding lead. Their first-half performance was characterized by clinical finishing and assertive play, which set the tone for the rest of the match. In the second half, Ben Guerdane absorbed pressure and managed the game well, despite picking up three yellow cards as they sought to disrupt Béja’s rhythm. Their defensive organization and ability to withstand Béja's late surge proved decisive, allowing them to secure a hard-earned away victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With full lineups and formations unavailable, the match narrative suggests Ben Guerdane approached the game with an emphasis on early attacking intent, pressing for goals in the first half. Their ability to strike twice before the break indicates effective use of width and direct play, while the second half saw a tactical shift towards defensive solidity and game management, as evidenced by their three yellow cards. Olympique Béja, meanwhile, appeared to adjust tactically after the interval, increasing attacking urgency and pushing numbers forward in search of a way back. Despite their improved performance and a goal to halve the deficit, their inability to break down Ben Guerdane's defensive block ultimately cost them.
Turning Point
Ben Guerdane’s second goal in the 40th minute gave them a decisive cushion and forced Béja to chase the game.
Man of the Match
US Ben Guerdane Second Goalscorer
Scored the crucial second goal and played a pivotal role in securing the win.
Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane: Match Preview
Olympique Béja and US Ben Guerdane open their Ligue 1 campaigns on the back of moderate form, with Béja posting a DWLWL string and Ben Guerdane coming in off LDLWW. Both sides finished last season in the bottom half, and the early table offers little to separate them, but Béja's home record in this fixture has been marginally stronger.
Attacking output has been a concern for both: Béja averaged just 0.8 goals per game in their last five, while Ben Guerdane were even less prolific at 0.6. Defensive solidity has been more apparent for the visitors, who kept three clean sheets but also failed to score in three of those five. The H2H record is defined by narrow margins, with only two of the last ten meetings seeing more than two goals and three of the last five ending either 1-0 or 0-0. First-half goals have been rare, with both sides combining for just three in their last ten H2H.
Model rates this as a low-goal environment, projecting a 1-0 Olympique Béja win as the likeliest outcome. The decisive edge comes from Béja's slightly better attacking conversion at home and Ben Guerdane's frequent struggles in front of goal. The most plausible deviation is a goalless draw, given both teams' conservative tendencies and lack of recent attacking fluency.
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 0.55
Over 2.5 Goals
17%
BTTS: Yes
24%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane that most previews miss.
- 1US Ben Guerdane have failed to score in three of their last five matches, yet kept three clean sheets in the same span.
- 2Only two of the last ten H2H meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, with six finishing under 1.5.
- 3BTTS has landed just twice in Olympique Béja's last five and zero times in Ben Guerdane's last five.
Who do you think wins: Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides averaged below 1 goal scored per game in their last five, with Olympique Béja at 0.8 and US Ben Guerdane at 0.6, and only 2/10 H2H meetings have gone over 2.5 goals.
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BTTS: No
US Ben Guerdane have seen BTTS only 0 times in their last five matches, and Olympique Béja just twice, reflecting a low-scoring, one-sided goals trend.
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Match Result: Olympique Béja Win
Olympique Béja have four wins in the last ten H2H and a marginally stronger recent form, while Ben Guerdane have failed to score in three of their last five.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane Prediction
Statistical signals point to a cagey, low-scoring opener between two sides with muted recent attacking output and a history of tight contests. Olympique Béja's slight edge in home H2H results and marginally better recent form tips the balance in their favour, but neither side has shown enough offensive production to expect a goal rush.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Olympique Béja averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game in their last five.
- →US Ben Guerdane managed just 0.6 goals per game in the same stretch, with three clean sheets but three matches failing to score.
Match Context
- →Only two of the last ten H2H meetings produced more than two goals.
How Olympique Béja and US Ben Guerdane Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Olympique Béjalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
US Ben Guerdanelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Olympique Béja closed last season with a mixed DWLWL run, showing a slight edge at home with two wins in their last five. US Ben Guerdane alternated between defensive resilience and attacking struggles, with three clean sheets but also three matches without scoring in their last five. Neither side enters with momentum, but Béja's home form and marginally better attacking numbers offer a small advantage.
Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane — Last 2 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane
Olympique Béja have a narrow edge in the last ten meetings, winning four to Ben Guerdane's three, with three draws. The fixture is typically tight: only two of those ten produced more than two goals, and three finished 1-0. Recent matches have often been decided by a single goal or ended goalless.
Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Olympique Béja wins
3
Draws
3
US Ben Guerdane wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane
With no bookmaker odds available, value assessment is limited. However, the model's strong lean to under 2.5 goals (83%) and BTTS no (80%) suggests these markets would hold value if odds implied probabilities below 75%. The 1X2 probabilities are broadly in line with the API prediction, with a slight tilt towards the home side.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane
- ⚠️No season-long home/away split data is available, so estimates rely on last five match rates and H2H.
- ⚠️Lack of shot, possession, and set piece data limits confidence in secondary market predictions.
- ⚠️Early season fixture: both teams' true level may not be reflected by late previous season form.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Olympique Béja 1–0 US Ben GuerdaneThe likeliest scenario is a 1-0 win for Olympique Béja, driven by their marginally higher recent scoring rate and home advantage in a fixture that rarely produces goals. The strongest data point is the low combined goals per game from both sides' last five matches. The main risk is that neither attack breaks through, resulting in a goalless draw.
Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane: Common Questions
Who will win Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane?
Model assigns Olympique Béja a 41% chance of victory, with a 38% probability of a draw and 21% for a Ben Guerdane win. The edge comes from Béja's slightly better recent scoring record and H2H home results.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane?
Probability for under 2.5 goals is 83%, with both teams averaging under one goal scored per game in their last five and only two of the last ten H2H meetings exceeding this threshold.
Will both teams score in Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane?
Model gives just a 20% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting Ben Guerdane's three clean sheets and three blanks in their last five, and Béja's two BTTS games in the same period.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.