Palestine vs Iran Prediction
Palestine Face Iran: Model Gives Edge to Iranians in World Cup 2026 Friendly
International Friendly · World
Palestine
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Iran
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Palestine vs Iran Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Palestine vs Iran?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Palestine vs Iran Prediction
Palestine take on Iran in a World Cup 2026 friendly, with the analytics model tipping Iran as slight favourites. The Elo ratings show a substantial gap—Palestine's 1469 lags 291 points behind Iran's 1760, translating to a low 15.8% expected score share for the hosts. Despite this, the model projects a competitive match, with Palestine's recent attacking momentum (1.18x multiplier) nudging their expected goals above initial estimates. Iran's attacking data is robust, featuring prolific contributors like Mehdi Taremi (34.5 xG, 149 goals) and Alireza Jahanbakhsh (8.7 xG, 67 goals). However, their recent form has been underwhelming, with a 0.865 attack momentum dampening their scoring projection. The model's final expected goals line reads 1.15 for Palestine and 1.30 for Iran, yielding a 40% win probability for the visitors and a predicted 1-0 away victory.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Palestine's attack boosted by 1.18x recent momentum
- →Iran's attack tempered by a 0.865 momentum multiplier
Match Context
- →Elo gap of 291 points in Iran's favour (1760 vs 1469)
- →Final expected goals: Palestine 1.15, Iran 1.30
- →Top correct score: 1-1 (12.9% probability), but 0-1 Iran win is close behind (11.2%)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
0.72 · 1.88
From xG
1.18 · 1.05
Blended
1.15 · 1.30
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Palestine attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; Iran's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; Iran's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.08.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Palestine goals, columns = Iran goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
0-1
11.2%
1-0
9.9%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Palestine vs Iran that most previews miss.
- 1Despite being underdogs, Palestine's recent attack form (1.18x) lifts their expected goals from 0.90 to 1.15.
- 2Iran's attack, led by Taremi (34.5 xG, 149 goals), is currently underperforming with just 0.8 goals per game in their last five.
- 3The last head-to-head saw Iran win 4-1, but the model now rates a 1-1 draw (12.9%) as the most likely single scoreline.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with Elo ratings, where Iran's 1760 dwarfs Palestine's 1469, establishing a baseline that heavily favours the visitors. This Elo gap translates to Iran's away expected score share of 84.2%, while Palestine's is just 15.8%. Next, the model considers attacking and defensive factors: Iran's attack is rated at 0.809 (factoring in finishing and chance quality), while Palestine's attack and defence lack granular data, defaulting to baseline values. Recent form momentum is then applied: Palestine's attack is running hot (1.18x), slightly raising their expected goals, while Iran's attack is cold (0.865x), pulling theirs down. Defensively, Iran's suppression factor is 1.102, indicating above-average resistance. These inputs are blended into final expected goals—1.15 for Palestine, 1.30 for Iran. Finally, a Poisson model simulates exact scorelines, with the most likely outcomes being 1-1 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.2%), and 1-0 (9.9%).
More Friendlies Predictions
Palestine vs Iran Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Palestinelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Iranlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Palestine enter with decent momentum, having earned 9 points from their last 5 matches and averaging 2.6 goals scored per game. Their attack is in good form, reflected in a 1.18x recent momentum multiplier. Iran, by contrast, are struggling—just 3 points from their last 5, with their attack momentum at a subdued 0.865x and only 0.8 goals per game recently.
Palestine vs Iran — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
🚩 Palestine vs Iran Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Palestine and 4 for Iran, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 51% · Over 10.5: 26%.
What History Says: Palestine vs Iran
These sides have met only once before, in the 2024 Asian Cup, where Iran ran out 4-1 winners. That match was more lopsided than the current model projection, which now sees a much tighter contest. The limited head-to-head history means the model leans more on current form and ratings.
Palestine vs Iran Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Palestine wins
0
Draws
1
Iran wins
Things to Watch: Palestine vs Iran
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; unable to assess value or recommend bets.
- ⚠️International friendlies can feature experimental lineups, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Form data for Palestine is sparse and may not fully reflect their current level.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Palestine 0–1 IranThe model predicts a narrow 1-0 win for Iran, anchored by a 40% away win probability and a final expected goals edge (1.30 vs 1.15). The most plausible way this forecast could go awry is if Palestine's recent attacking momentum sustains and Iran's form slump continues, raising the risk of a draw or even a home upset.
Palestine vs Iran: Common Questions
Who will win Palestine vs Iran?
The model gives Iran a 40.1% chance of winning, with Palestine at 32.7% and a draw at 27.2%. Iran are slight favourites, but the probabilities are close.
What are the chances of both teams scoring in Palestine vs Iran?
The model estimates a 49.8% probability for both teams to score, making BTTS almost a coin flip in this fixture.
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestine vs Iran?
The top predicted scoreline is 1-1 (12.9% probability), followed by 0-1 to Iran (11.2%) and 1-0 to Palestine (9.9%).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Palestine vs Iran: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 2 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.