Palestine vs New Zealand Prediction
Palestine v New Zealand: Model Sides with Hosts in Tight Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Palestine
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
New Zealand
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS: Yes
40%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Palestine vs New Zealand Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Palestine vs New Zealand?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Palestine vs New Zealand Prediction
Palestine and New Zealand meet in a friendly with both sides searching for form and confidence. The model gives Palestine a narrow edge, with a 37% chance of victory compared to New Zealand’s 32%, reflecting a contest shaped by defensive solidity and recent attacking struggles on both sides. Despite New Zealand’s higher Elo rating (+116 points, ranked 68th to Palestine’s 86th), the analytics blend suggests a low-scoring affair, with the most probable outcome a 1-0 home win. Palestine’s recent results—four draws and a win in their last five—underscore their resilience, conceding just 0.4 goals per match on average. New Zealand, meanwhile, have endured a rough patch, losing four of their last five and conceding three goals per game. However, their attacking data, led by Ben Waine (45 goals, 8 xG), hints at potential if they can rediscover their finishing touch.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →New Zealand hold a +116 Elo rating advantage (1585 vs 1469), but recent form tempers their edge.
Attack
- →New Zealand’s attack is underperforming (0.865 momentum multiplier), despite strong individual xG.
- →Low scoring is favoured: 1-0, 1-1, and 0-0 are the top three correct score probabilities.
Defence
- →Palestine’s defensive momentum (0.85 leak multiplier) has suppressed expected goals against.
Match Context
- →The model’s final expected goals: Palestine 1.06, New Zealand 0.97 after all adjustments.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.07 · 1.53
From xG
1.04 · 0.99
Blended
1.06 · 0.97
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Palestine's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; New Zealand's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; New Zealand's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Palestine goals, columns = New Zealand goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.0%
1-1
13.5%
0-0
13.2%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Palestine vs New Zealand that most previews miss.
- 1Palestine have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding just 0.4 goals per game.
- 2New Zealand’s last five games have seen them concede an average of three goals per match, with zero clean sheets.
- 3The model’s top three correct scores (1-0, 1-1, 0-0) together account for over 40% of all simulated outcomes.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with the Elo baseline, where New Zealand’s 1585 rating gives them a theoretical edge over Palestine’s 1469. However, Elo alone is not decisive here. The next step blends each side’s attacking and defensive metrics: New Zealand’s attack factor (0.76) is weighed against Palestine’s default defensive numbers, while Palestine’s attack (no recent data) faces a New Zealand defence with a suppression factor of 1.25. These numbers are then adjusted for recent form—Palestine’s attack and leak multipliers (both 0.85) show a team tightening up at both ends, while New Zealand’s attack (0.865) and leak (1.18) reflect a side struggling for goals and leaking at the back. After all adjustments, the final expected goals (λ) are 1.06 for Palestine and 0.97 for New Zealand. These rates are run through a Poisson model to simulate exact scorelines. The result: a 37% probability of a Palestine win, 31% for the draw, and 32% for New Zealand. The most likely scorelines—1-0, 1-1, and 0-0—underscore the model’s expectation of a low-scoring, evenly matched contest.
More Friendlies Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Palestine vs New Zealand
Bookmaker odds are currently unavailable for this fixture, so it is not possible to identify specific value bets. Once odds are published, comparing the model’s probabilities—especially the 37% chance for a Palestine win and the 60% probability for 'BTTS: No'—could highlight attractive opportunities if bookmakers underrate defensive trends.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Palestine vs New Zealand Confirmed Lineups
Palestine
New Zealand
Palestine vs New Zealand Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Palestinelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New Zealandlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Palestine are unbeaten in their last five, with four draws and a win, conceding just two goals in that span and keeping four clean sheets. Their attack has been less convincing, averaging only 0.6 goals per match. New Zealand, meanwhile, have lost four of their last five and conceded 15 goals in those games, though they have managed to score in three of them. Both sides’ recent form suggests a cautious, defence-first approach.
Palestine vs New Zealand — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
🚩 Palestine vs New Zealand Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Palestine and 3.4 for New Zealand, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
What History Says: Palestine vs New Zealand
There is no recent head-to-head data available between Palestine and New Zealand, reflecting the rarity of this fixture at international level. As a result, the model relies entirely on team ratings, recent form, and underlying performance metrics rather than direct historical precedent.
Palestine vs New Zealand Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Palestine wins
1
Draws
0
New Zealand wins
Things to Watch: Palestine vs New Zealand
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available at present, so value bets cannot be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies often feature experimental lineups, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Sparse data for Palestine’s attack and defence may limit model confidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Palestine 1–0 New ZealandThe model’s final verdict is a narrow 1-0 win for Palestine, driven by their recent defensive solidity and New Zealand’s leaky backline. The single strongest number is the 0.595 probability for 'BTTS: No', reflecting the expectation that at least one side will fail to score. The biggest risk to this prediction is New Zealand’s underlying attacking quality—if their forwards, particularly Ben Waine, find their finishing boots, the balance could tip the other way.
Palestine vs New Zealand: Common Questions
Who will win Palestine vs New Zealand?
The model gives Palestine a 37% chance of victory, with New Zealand at 32% and a draw at 31%. It predicts a close, low-scoring match.
Will both teams score in Palestine vs New Zealand?
The probability of both teams scoring is 40%, with the model favouring 'No' (60%) based on recent defensive and attacking form.
What are the most likely scorelines for Palestine vs New Zealand?
The top three predicted scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13.5%), and 0-0 (13%), indicating a strong tilt towards a low-scoring result.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Palestine vs New Zealand: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 17 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.