Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Pendikspor
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Vanspor FK
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.4/10Late Yenne Strike Seals Comeback Win for Vanspor FK Over Pendikspor
Vanspor FK staged a dramatic late turnaround to defeat Pendikspor 2-1 at the Pendik Stadium, overturning a second-half deficit in a match marked by shifting momentum and a crucial red card. Pendikspor took the lead shortly after halftime, but Vanspor FK responded strongly, capitalizing on their numerical advantage after the hosts were reduced to ten men. Goals from Álvaro de Oliveira and T. Yenne, the latter coming just two minutes from time, secured all three points for the visitors. The match was a tale of two halves, with Pendikspor enjoying the lion’s share of possession (62%) and initially dictating the tempo. However, Vanspor FK’s more incisive attacking play—registering seven shots on target from 13 attempts—proved decisive. Pendikspor’s lack of cutting edge in the final third and a costly red card ultimately left them vulnerable to Vanspor FK’s late surge.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
49' — Goal
J. Clarke-Harris puts Pendikspor ahead with a well-taken finish.
60' — Goal
Álvaro de Oliveira equalizes for Vanspor FK, shifting momentum.
70' — Red Card
Pendikspor reduced to 10 men, changing the complexion of the match.
88' — Goal
T. Yenne scores the winner for Vanspor FK after sustained pressure.
Pendikspor
Pendikspor started brightly, controlling possession and dictating play through their 4-1-4-1 setup. Their patient build-up paid off early in the second half when they broke the deadlock. However, despite taking 13 shots, only two were on target, highlighting their inefficiency in front of goal. The red card proved pivotal, as they struggled to maintain their defensive shape and eventually succumbed to Vanspor FK’s pressure. Discipline was an issue, with 16 fouls, two yellow cards, and a costly sending off that swung the momentum away from them. Despite their dominance in possession, Pendikspor failed to convert it into meaningful chances, leaving them empty-handed at the final whistle.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK executed a patient, counter-attacking game plan from their 4-3-3 formation, absorbing Pendikspor’s pressure and waiting for opportunities to strike. Their attacking trio, led by Álvaro de Oliveira and T. Yenne, stretched the Pendikspor defense and proved clinical when it mattered most. Seven shots on target from 13 attempts reflected their directness and efficiency. The visitors’ resilience was evident after falling behind, as they used their numerical advantage to pin Pendikspor back and create chances, culminating in two well-taken goals. Their ability to exploit set pieces and wide areas, as well as their discipline (just one yellow card), were key factors in their comeback victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Pendikspor set up in a 4-1-4-1 formation, focusing on controlling the midfield and dictating the pace through short passing and patient build-up. Their structure allowed them to dominate possession but often left their lone striker isolated, resulting in few clear-cut chances. After taking the lead, they became more conservative, but the red card forced them into a deeper defensive posture, inviting pressure. Vanspor FK’s 4-3-3 relied on quick transitions and exploiting the flanks, especially as Pendikspor tired and lost a man. Their use of width and set pieces, coupled with a willingness to shoot from distance, kept the home side under pressure. Tactical substitutions and a shift to a more aggressive attacking stance after the red card paid dividends, as they overloaded the Pendikspor box in the closing stages.
Turning Point
The red card to Pendikspor in the 70th minute, which allowed Vanspor FK to seize control and complete their comeback.
Man of the Match
T. Yenne
Scored the decisive late winner and was a constant threat in attack, especially after Pendikspor went down to ten men.
Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK: Match Preview
Pendikspor approach this fixture sitting 12th in the 1. Lig, unbeaten at home but with just a single win from four on their own patch. Their recent form reads DDDWL, with three consecutive league draws and a 1-1 home result against Bodrum FK last time out. Vanspor FK, currently 19th, are winless away and have managed just one victory all season, conceding heavily with a -9 goal difference.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Pendikspor's moderate attack (1.25 goals per game) against a Vanspor FK defence conceding over two per match (2.13). However, Pendikspor's own defensive record is poor (1.63 conceded per game) and their matches at Pendik Stadyumu average 2.25 goals. Both sides average under 3 shots on target per game over the last five, and neither keeps clean sheets reliably (Pendikspor 12.5%, Vanspor FK 0%). Set-piece output is middling, with both averaging 4.4 corners per game recently, while discipline is not extreme, with 1–2 yellows per match each.
Given the high frequency of draws in both teams’ recent records and their similar scoring/conceding rates, the model expects a balanced contest with limited attacking quality. The most probable outcome is a low-scoring draw, with 1-1 the likeliest scoreline, reflecting both the statistical rates and the recent head-to-head pattern.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK that most previews miss.
- 1Pendikspor have drawn 50% of their league matches and are unbeaten at home (W1 D3 L0).
- 2Vanspor FK have conceded 10 goals in four away matches, averaging 2.5 per game, but have scored in three of those games.
- 3The last two head-to-head meetings have both ended 1-1, with no home win in the last four encounters.
Who do you think wins: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams have drawn three of their last five league matches, and their scoring/conceding rates (Pendikspor 1.25/1.63, Vanspor FK 1.00/2.13 per game) point to a low-scoring, balanced contest. The 1-1 has also landed in both of the last two H2H meetings.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Pendikspor's home matches average 2.25 goals, Vanspor FK's away games 3.5, but both sides have struggled for attacking consistency and have seen under 2.5 in 62.5% (Pendikspor) and 50% (Vanspor FK) of their league games.
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More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK Prediction
This fixture pits two sides with middling attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities, both trending toward draws in recent weeks. Pendikspor's home record is unbeaten but heavy on stalemates, while Vanspor FK have yet to win on the road and concede at a rate of 2.5 goals per away match. The statistical profile suggests a contest where neither side is likely to dominate for long spells, and the draw emerges as the modal outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Pendikspor have drawn four of their eight league matches and are unbeaten at home (W1 D3).
Defence
- →Vanspor FK have conceded 17 goals in eight matches, with no clean sheets and a -9 goal difference.
Match Context
- →Recent H2H meetings have ended 1-1, reflecting the narrow gap between the sides.
🚩 Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Pendikspor and 4.8 for Vanspor FK, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Pendikspor and Vanspor FK Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Pendiksporlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vanspor FKlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Pendikspor are unbeaten in their last four league matches but have drawn three straight, with a form string of DDDWL and only one home win all season. Vanspor FK are struggling in 19th, winless in their last five (LDDLD) and conceding at a rate of over two goals per game, with no away wins so far.
Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
The recent head-to-head record is remarkably balanced, with the last two matches ending 1-1 and no home win in four meetings. Vanspor FK have won twice away at Pendikspor in the past, but both sides have been hard to separate in recent seasons.
Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
0
Pendikspor wins
2
Draws
3
Vanspor FK wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
With no bookmaker odds available at the time of analysis, value edges cannot be computed. The model's probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals are the most statistically supported outcomes, but confirmation against market prices is not possible.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at generation; value edges cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is dominated by draws, which may not persist if either side changes approach.
- ⚠️Low clean sheet rates for both (Pendikspor 12.5%, Vanspor FK 0%) introduce variance to goal markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Pendikspor 1–1 Vanspor FKA 1-1 draw is the statistical centre of this fixture, driven by both teams’ high draw rates and nearly identical attacking output over the season. The strongest data point is the repeated 1-1 in recent head-to-heads and the lack of clean sheets on either side. The main risk is that Vanspor FK's defensive frailty on the road could collapse, tilting the match in Pendikspor's favour.
Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK: Common Questions
Who will win Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK?
The model gives Pendikspor a 40% chance to win, with a 37% probability for a draw and 23% for a Vanspor FK victory. Both teams have drawn three of their last five league games, and the most likely outcome is a draw.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK?
There is a 51% probability of both teams scoring, reflecting poor clean sheet rates (Pendikspor 12.5%, Vanspor FK 0%) and three BTTS results in each side's last five matches.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK?
The model estimates a 59% probability for under 2.5 goals, with Pendikspor's home games averaging 2.25 goals and both teams struggling for attacking consistency.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 6 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.