Peru vs Bolivia Prediction
Peru vs Bolivia: Analytics Edge Peru in Tight, Low-Confidence Friendly
International Friendly · World
Peru
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Bolivia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Peru vs Bolivia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Peru vs Bolivia Prediction
Peru and Bolivia meet in Lima for a friendly that pits two struggling South American sides against each other, with the model giving Peru a slim edge. Despite holding a 50-point Elo advantage (1695 vs 1645) and a historical home dominance, both teams come into this fixture in poor form, reflected in a low overall confidence rating from the model. The expected-goals lines are nearly level—Peru's final adjusted expected goals sit at 1.36, narrowly ahead of Bolivia's 1.24—suggesting a close contest likely to be decided by fine margins. Recent attacking struggles are evident in both camps, with momentum adjustments pulling down each team's scoring expectation by 15% due to their lacklustre recent results. The most probable scorelines are 1-1 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.1%), and 0-1 (9.2%), underscoring the model's uncertainty and the likelihood of a low-scoring affair. With neither side showing much cutting edge or defensive solidity in recent outings, the analytics see this as a fragile matchup where small moments could swing the result.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Historical head-to-head: Peru have won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Attack
- →Both teams' attacking momentum is weak (0.85 multiplier), suppressing expected goals.
Match Context
- →Peru hold a 50-point Elo advantage (1695 vs 1645), translating to a 39.7% win probability.
- →Model's blended expected goals: Peru 1.36, Bolivia 1.24 after all adjustments.
- →Top three correct score probabilities: 1-1 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.2%).
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.40 · 1.20
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.36 · 1.24
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Peru's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Peru's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18; Bolivia's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Bolivia's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Peru goals, columns = Bolivia goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
9.2%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Peru vs Bolivia that most previews miss.
- 1Peru have failed to win at home in their last two matches, conceding five goals in that span.
- 2Bolivia have scored just once in their last five games, averaging 0.2 goals per match.
- 3Despite Peru's historical dominance, the model gives them only a 39.7% chance to win this friendly.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with an Elo baseline, where Peru's 50-point advantage (1695 vs 1645) gives them a modest edge, reflected in a 0.571 expected Elo score for Peru and 0.429 for Bolivia. This baseline is then combined with the teams' expected-goals figures, which are derived from underlying attacking and defensive factors. However, for this fixture, granular xG and player data are lacking, so the model defaults to base rates and recent team-level performance. Momentum adjustments are significant here: both Peru and Bolivia have underperformed in attack over their last five matches, resulting in a 0.85 multiplier applied to each side's expected goals. This drags Peru's final expected goals down to 1.36 and Bolivia's to 1.24. These adjusted scoring rates are then run through a Poisson distribution to generate exact scoreline probabilities, producing a tightly clustered outcome with the draw and low-margin wins for either side as the most likely results.
More Friendlies Predictions
Peru vs Bolivia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Perulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Bolivialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Both Peru and Bolivia enter this friendly in poor form. Peru have lost four and drawn one of their last five matches, scoring just 0.6 goals per game while conceding 2.4. Bolivia's recent run is even bleaker, with five straight defeats, only one goal scored, and an average of 3.2 goals conceded per match. The model's momentum adjustments reflect these struggles, reducing both teams' attacking expectations by 15%.
Peru vs Bolivia — Last 8 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
🚩 Peru vs Bolivia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Peru and 3.8 for Bolivia, for an expected total of 8.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 43% · Over 10.5: 20%.
What History Says: Peru vs Bolivia
Peru have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning seven of the last ten encounters, including a 2-0 victory in their most recent meeting in Lima. Bolivia have managed three wins in that span, but none away from home. There have been no draws in the last ten matches, though the model sees a draw as a strong possibility this time.
Peru vs Bolivia Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Peru wins
0
Draws
3
Bolivia wins
Things to Watch: Peru vs Bolivia
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are currently available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️Model confidence is low due to sparse recent data and lack of granular xG or player-level metrics.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable, with team selection and motivation often varying.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Peru 1–0 BoliviaThe analytics narrowly favour Peru, projecting a 1-0 home win as the likeliest outcome, but with just a 39.7% win probability and a low overall confidence rating. The single strongest number is the razor-thin expected goals gap (1.36 vs 1.24), which, combined with both teams' poor form, makes this a highly uncertain fixture. The most plausible way the prediction goes wrong is if either side's attack unexpectedly clicks, pushing the match towards a higher-scoring or less predictable result.
Peru vs Bolivia: Common Questions
Who will win Peru vs Bolivia?
The model gives Peru a 39.7% chance to win, Bolivia a 34.1% chance, and the draw at 26.3%. This reflects a very tight contest with no clear favourite.
Will both teams score in Peru vs Bolivia?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52.98%, indicating a slight lean towards both sides finding the net, but the margin is narrow.
What are the most likely scorelines for Peru vs Bolivia?
The top three predicted scorelines are 1-1 (12.5%), 1-0 to Peru (10.1%), and 0-1 to Bolivia (9.2%), highlighting the model's expectation of a close, low-scoring match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Peru vs Bolivia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 30 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.