Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Pogon Szczecin
Full Time
3 - 2
AI predicted 2 - 1
Warta Poznań
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
8/10Pogon Szczecin Edge Five-Goal Thriller Against Warta Poznań
Pogon Szczecin staged a dramatic comeback to claim a 3-2 victory over Warta Poznań in a pulsating friendly encounter. After falling behind to two first-half goals from the visitors, Pogon roared back after the break, netting twice in quick succession before sealing the win late on. The match, played in a lively but fair spirit with no cards shown, offered plenty of attacking football and momentum swings, keeping fans entertained throughout. Warta Poznań looked in control at halftime, having struck in the 21st and 33rd minutes, but Pogon's response after the interval was emphatic. Goals in the 46th and 52nd minutes brought the hosts level, and a late winner in the 87th minute capped a spirited turnaround. Both teams showed attacking intent, but it was Pogon's resilience and late push that proved decisive.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
21' — Goal
Warta Poznań open the scoring to take an early lead.
33' — Goal
Warta Poznań double their advantage, putting Pogon Szczecin under pressure.
46' — Goal
Pogon Szczecin pull one back immediately after halftime, shifting the momentum.
52' — Goal
Pogon Szczecin equalize, completing a rapid turnaround.
87' — Goal
Pogon Szczecin score the winner late on to secure victory.
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin displayed impressive character to overturn a two-goal deficit, coming alive in the second half with a flurry of attacking play. Their ability to regroup after a disappointing first half and strike back quickly after the restart was key to their victory. The late winner showcased their persistence and belief, while their discipline was notable with no cards conceded.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań made an excellent start, capitalizing on their chances to take a commanding lead within the first 33 minutes. However, they struggled to maintain their defensive solidity after halftime, conceding twice in quick succession and ultimately succumbing to a late Pogon surge. Despite the defeat, their attacking play in the first half was sharp and clinical.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With no official lineups provided, both teams appeared to favor attacking football, as evidenced by the five goals scored and the rapid shifts in momentum. Pogon Szczecin's tactical adjustment at halftime was pivotal, as they pressed higher and committed more players forward, overwhelming Warta Poznań's defense. The visitors, meanwhile, started brightly with incisive forward play but seemed to lose their shape and defensive discipline after the break. Neither side resorted to rough play, with no cards issued, suggesting a focus on fluid, open football rather than physicality.
Turning Point
Pogon Szczecin's equalizer in the 52nd minute, which erased Warta Poznań's lead and set the stage for the late winner.
Man of the Match
Pogon Szczecin Goal Scorer (87')
Delivered the decisive late goal to complete Pogon's comeback and secure victory.
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań: Match Preview
Pogon Szczecin come into this friendly off a mixed run, having lost their last two but previously winning three straight, including a 4-3 home thriller. Their home form remains strong, unbeaten in four this season and averaging over two goals per game at their own ground. Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have struggled for consistency, losing three of their last five and failing to score in two, though their season-long matches are rarely dull, with a 2.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded average.
The statistical matchup points to a high-scoring game. Warta's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 90% of cases, and their away record is open (13 scored, 11 conceded in five). Pogon's attack has been reliable at home, but their defence has allowed 1.25 goals per home match, suggesting vulnerability. The H2H record in Szczecin is one-sided, with Pogon winning six of ten, but recent meetings have been competitive and high-scoring, including a 3-3 draw and a 0-2 Warta win.
Given these rates and patterns, the model expects a match with multiple goals and both teams on the scoresheet. Pogon's home edge and slightly more robust defence give them the nod, but Warta's attacking threat ensures the result is far from certain. A 2-1 home win is the most likely outcome, but volatility is high given both sides' recent defensive records.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań that most previews miss.
- 1Warta Poznań's season over 2.5 goal rate is 90% (9 of 10 matches), one of the highest in the sample.
- 2Pogon Szczecin have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of their last five, conceding 1.8 per game over that span.
- 3Four of the last five head-to-heads have produced at least three goals, including a 3-3 and a 3-1 in Szczecin.
Who do you think wins: Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have high season-long over 2.5 rates (Pogon Szczecin 55.6%, Warta Poznań 90%), and their combined average goals per game is above 3, supporting a goals-heavy environment.
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BTTS: Yes
Warta Poznań's defensive record (2.0 conceded per game) and Pogon's recent defensive lapses (1.8 conceded per last 5) point towards both sides finding the net.
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The Case For This Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań Prediction
This friendly brings together two sides with contrasting recent form but a shared tendency for high-scoring matches. Pogon Szczecin have won three of their last five, but arrive on a two-game losing streak, while Warta Poznań have lost three of five and failed to score in two of those. Both teams have shown attacking intent over the season, but defensive vulnerabilities remain clear. Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Warta's wild goal numbers: their season averages stand at 2.3 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, with a remarkable 90% of matches going over 2.5 goals. Pogon, meanwhile, are unbeaten at home this season (3W, 1D) and have scored 9 in 4 home games, but also concede at a rate of 1.25 per home fixture. The H2H record leans heavily towards Pogon at home, with six wins in the last ten and only one defeat, though the last two meetings have produced at least three goals. Given these rates, the model expects a match with chances for both sides and a strong likelihood of multiple goals. Pogon's home edge and greater defensive solidity tip the balance, but Warta's attacking output keeps the contest open, especially in the second half. The likeliest scenario is a 2-1 home win, but the distribution of goals suggests volatility is possible.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head in Szczecin: Pogon have won 6 of the last 10, with only 1 defeat.
Defence
- →Pogon Szczecin are unbeaten at home in their last four (3W, 1D), scoring 9 and conceding 5.
Match Context
- →Warta Poznań have seen over 2.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches this season (90%).
🚩 Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Pogon Szczecin and 5 for Warta Poznań, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Pogon Szczecinlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Warta Poznańlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Pogon Szczecin have alternated between strong home performances and recent away defeats, with a form string of LLWWW and a two-match losing streak. Warta Poznań's form is less convincing, with just one win and one draw in their last five, and two matches without scoring. Both sides have shown defensive frailty, but Pogon's home record is notably stronger.
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 90.91% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań
Pogon Szczecin have dominated the head-to-head at home, winning six of the last ten and losing only once to Warta Poznań. Recent meetings have been open, with four of the last five producing at least three goals, including a 3-3 draw and a 3-1 home win for Pogon.
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Pogon Szczecin wins
3
Draws
1
Warta Poznań wins
Things to Watch: Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value and EV cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Limited recent data on Warta Poznań's shot and possession metrics reduces confidence in their attacking/defensive rates.
- ⚠️As a friendly, lineups and intensity may differ from league matches, introducing additional variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Warta PoznańThe model projects a 2-1 win for Pogon Szczecin, driven primarily by Warta Poznań's extreme over 2.5 goal rate (90%) and Pogon's unbeaten home record. The biggest risk to this outcome is the unpredictable nature of friendlies, where squad rotation or reduced intensity could dampen the expected goal output.
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań: Common Questions
Who will win Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Pogon Szczecin are favoured with a 45% win probability, compared to 23% for Warta Poznań and 32% for the draw. Their unbeaten home record and dominant head-to-head edge in Szczecin support this.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 62%, supported by Warta Poznań's 90% over 2.5 rate this season and both teams' high combined scoring averages.
Are both teams likely to score in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
There is a 58% chance of both teams scoring, with Warta conceding 2.0 per game and Pogon conceding 1.8 per game in their last five, making BTTS a plausible outcome.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.