Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town Predictions
National League - North · England
Radcliffe
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Merthyr Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Recommended Bets: Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town
Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town: Match Preview
Radcliffe enter this fixture on the back of two consecutive league wins, but their overall season record remains patchy at four wins and eight defeats from twelve, placing them 20th in the table. Merthyr Town sit five points and five places higher, but have drawn half their league matches and have not won in their last four outings. Both teams are searching for consistency, with Radcliffe looking to climb away from the relegation zone and Merthyr aiming to halt a run of stalemates.
The statistical matchup is defined by modest attacking output and average defensive records. Radcliffe’s home attack is their main strength, scoring 11 in 6 at home (1.83 per game), but they have conceded 9 in those matches. Merthyr Town’s away games are typically tight, with only 11 total goals in 6 (1.83 per game) and a 1-3-2 away record. Both teams’ season-long over 2.5 goal rates (Radcliffe 58%, Merthyr 42%) suggest a middling goal environment, but Merthyr’s recent matches have trended under, with only 0.8 goals scored per game in their last five.
Given these rates, the model projects a low-scoring, balanced contest. Both teams’ average goals for and against cluster around 1.2, and Merthyr’s draw rate is among the league’s highest. The likeliest scenario is a 1-1 draw, with neither side able to sustain attacking pressure for long spells. Set piece and card data are unavailable, but there is little evidence to suggest a high-tempo or ill-disciplined encounter.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town that most previews miss.
- 1Merthyr Town have drawn 50% of their league matches (6 of 12), the highest draw rate in the bottom half.
- 2Radcliffe’s home matches average 3.33 total goals, but Merthyr Town’s away games average just 1.83.
- 3Both teams have failed to score in only one of their last five league matches, suggesting BTTS is slightly more likely than not.
Who do you think wins: Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over a goal for and against per game (Radcliffe 1.25 GF, 1.75 GA; Merthyr Town 1.17 GF, 1.08 GA), and the draw has occurred six times in Merthyr’s twelve league matches. The model’s highest correct score probability is for 1-1, reflecting balanced attacking and defensive rates.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Radcliffe’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 58% of games, but Merthyr Town’s rate is lower at 42%, and both teams’ recent five-game averages are below two goals scored per match. The model gives a 54% probability to under 2.5 goals, with both teams trending towards tighter contests.
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More National League - North Predictions
The Case For This Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a mid-table, low-margin contest: Radcliffe’s home attack (1.83 goals/game at home) is offset by a leaky defence (1.5 conceded per home game), while Merthyr Town’s away record is defined by draws and low scoring (5 goals for, 6 against in 6 away). Both teams’ season-long scoring and concession rates are tightly clustered around the league average, with neither side demonstrating a clear edge in recent form or shot volumes. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw, with the 1-1 scoreline best reflecting the underlying rates.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams are averaging under 1.3 goals scored per game across the season.
Match Context
- →Radcliffe have not drawn a league game all season, but Merthyr Town have drawn 6 of 12.
- →Radcliffe’s home matches average 3.33 total goals, but Merthyr Town’s away games average just 1.83.
How Radcliffe and Merthyr Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Radcliffelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Merthyr Townlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Radcliffe have won their last two league games, scoring six goals in the process, but their overall record remains inconsistent with eight defeats in twelve. Merthyr Town, meanwhile, are on a four-match winless run, but have proven difficult to beat, drawing six times in the league. Both sides have shown recent improvement in attack but remain vulnerable defensively.
Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town
Each team has won once in the last two head-to-head meetings, with both victories coming away from home and both matches producing at least three goals. However, the sample is too small to establish a clear trend, and both teams’ current defensive records suggest a tighter contest this time.
Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Radcliffe wins
0
Draws
1
Merthyr Town wins
Things to Watch: Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value edges and expected value cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Lack of shots, possession, and set piece data limits granularity of tactical analysis.
- ⚠️Small head-to-head sample (2 matches) reduces confidence in H2H trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Radcliffe 1–1 Merthyr TownThe model’s final call is a 1-1 draw, driven by Merthyr Town’s high draw rate (six in twelve), Radcliffe’s recent upturn in form, and both teams’ season-long scoring rates clustering around 1.2 goals for and against. The main risk is Radcliffe’s volatility—having not drawn a league game all season, their matches often tip decisively one way or the other, but Merthyr’s away conservatism should dampen that tendency.
Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town: Common Questions
Who will win Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town?
The model gives Radcliffe a 36% chance of victory, Merthyr Town a 28% chance, and the draw a 36% chance. Both teams are closely matched on season-long scoring rates and league position.
Will both teams score in Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, with each side failing to score only once in their last five league matches. The underlying rates suggest BTTS is slightly more likely than not.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town?
The model estimates a 54% probability for under 2.5 goals, reflecting Merthyr Town’s low-scoring away games (1.83 total goals per away match) and both teams’ modest attacking output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town Resources
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Merthyr Town Predictions
All Merthyr Town fixtures & tips
Radcliffe vs Merthyr Town Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
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National League - North Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results