Southport vs AFC Telford United Predictions
National League - North · England
Southport
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
AFC Telford United
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Southport vs AFC Telford United
Southport vs AFC Telford United: Match Preview
Southport and AFC Telford United both find themselves in the relegation zone after 12 matches, with Southport sitting 22nd and Telford just above them in 21st. Southport’s recent form is particularly bleak: four defeats and a draw in their last five, and no goals scored in four straight league games. Telford’s form is marginally better, having picked up a win last time out, but they too have suffered three defeats in their last five and are only three points clear of their hosts.
The underlying numbers suggest a low-scoring affair. Southport’s home record is mediocre (2W, 2D, 2L, 9:8 goal difference), but their attack has dried up, averaging just 0.4 goals per game over the last five. Telford’s away record (1W, 2D, 3L, 6:8) is similarly uninspiring, and their last five matches see them conceding three per game on average, though that figure is inflated by a heavy home defeat. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, but with both averaging under a goal per game for the season, the contest is likely to be cagey.
The model expects a war of attrition, with neither side able to assert dominance. The draw is the likeliest outcome, underpinned by a remarkable H2H trend: seven of the last ten meetings have ended all square. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, reflecting both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities and attacking limitations. A single moment of quality or error could decide it, but the distribution of results points firmly towards parity.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Southport vs AFC Telford United Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Southport vs AFC Telford United that most previews miss.
- 1Southport have failed to score in four of their last five matches, averaging just 0.4 goals per game in that span.
- 2Seven of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended in a draw, with only two producing more than two goals.
- 3AFC Telford United's away matches average just 2.33 total goals per game this season (6 scored, 8 conceded in 6).
Who do you think wins: Southport vs AFC Telford United?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Southport vs AFC Telford United(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The draw is the most probable outcome (39%), with both teams averaging under 1 goal per game over the season and a high historical draw rate in this fixture (7 of last 10 H2H).
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides combine for just 2 goals scored per game on average this season (Southport 1.08, Telford 0.92), and 53% of their matches finish under 2.5 goals.
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More National League - North Predictions
The Case For This Southport vs AFC Telford United Prediction
Two of the league’s bottom three sides meet with both desperate to halt poor runs. Southport have lost four of their last five and failed to score in four straight, while AFC Telford United arrive with only one win in their last five league outings. Both sides have struggled to keep goals out, but neither attack is firing: Southport average 1.08 goals per game, while Telford are at 0.92. The statistical matchup points to a low-scoring contest. Southport’s home games average 2.83 goals, but their recent form is even less productive (0.4 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per match in last five). Telford’s away matches are tighter, with just 2.33 goals per game and only 6 scored in 6 away trips. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, yet neither is creating much threat, as evidenced by Southport’s four consecutive blanks and Telford’s single clean sheet in that span. The H2H record is notable for draws: 7 of the last 10 meetings have ended level, and only two of those saw more than two goals. Given these patterns, the model expects a cautious, error-prone game with few clear chances. The most likely scenario is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline narrowly favoured due to both sides’ defensive frailties but lack of attacking spark. A single goal could swing the match either way, but the underlying rates and H2H history both point towards parity.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Southport have failed to score in four of their last five matches.
Match Context
- →AFC Telford United average just 1 goal per away match and have won only once on the road.
- →Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended in draws.
How Southport and AFC Telford United Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Southport vs AFC Telford United Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Southportlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
AFC Telford Unitedlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Southport enter this match in poor form, losing four of their last five and failing to score in four consecutive league games. AFC Telford United have fared only slightly better, with one win in their last five, but their defence has been leaky, conceding three per game over that stretch. Both teams are struggling for momentum and sit in the relegation zone.
Southport vs AFC Telford United — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Southport vs AFC Telford United
The head-to-head record is notable for its balance: seven of the last ten meetings have ended in draws, including a 2-2 and a 0-0 in recent seasons. Only once in the last six has either side won by more than a single goal, and low-scoring stalemates are common.
Southport vs AFC Telford United Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Southport wins
7
Draws
1
AFC Telford United wins
Things to Watch: Southport vs AFC Telford United
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set piece data for recent matches; model relies on goals and results only.
- ⚠️Lineups and injuries are not reported, so late changes could affect team strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Southport 1–1 AFC Telford UnitedThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both sides’ season-long scoring rates (Southport 1.08, Telford 0.92 per game) and a remarkable H2H draw rate (7 of last 10). The likeliest way this goes wrong is if one side capitalises on a defensive lapse early, forcing the other to open up and breaking the usual low-scoring pattern.
Southport vs AFC Telford United: Common Questions
Who will win Southport vs AFC Telford United?
The model gives Southport a 33% chance of victory, AFC Telford United a 28% chance, and the draw is most likely at 39%. Both teams have struggled for wins and have a high historical draw rate in this fixture.
Will both teams score in Southport vs AFC Telford United?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, with both sides failing to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches and a 1-1 scoreline the most probable outcome.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Southport vs AFC Telford United?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 53%, as both teams average under a goal per game and 53% of their combined matches finish with two or fewer goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Southport vs AFC Telford United: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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