Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Radomiak Radom
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: Match Preview
Radomiak Radom approach this friendly on the back of a mixed run, losing their last two competitive fixtures but boasting a strong home scoring record—21 goals in nine home matches this season. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, meanwhile, have found some attacking rhythm with seven goals in their last five but remain defensively vulnerable, conceding at least once in four of those games. With both sides coming from different divisions and Radomiak's higher average goal output, the hosts hold a statistical edge.
The contest is shaped by Radomiak's high event rate: their matches average 3.77 goals this season, and 84.6% have gone over 2.5 goals. Pogoń's away defence has struggled, conceding 10 in six away league games, while Radomiak's recent matches show a slight drop in attacking efficiency (0.8 goals per game last five) but sustained shot and corner volume. Both teams have shown a tendency to concede in the second half, and neither has kept more than two clean sheets in their last five outings.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects an open contest with Radomiak's home attack likely to break through, but Pogoń's recent scoring form and Radomiak's modest defensive numbers mean a clean sheet is unlikely. The likeliest outcome is a 2-1 home win, with over 2.5 goals the best-supported angle by the data.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki that most previews miss.
- 1Radomiak Radom's matches have finished over 2.5 goals in 11 of 13 games this season (84.6%).
- 2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have failed to score in only one of their last five matches, despite a season-long average of just one goal per game.
- 3Radomiak average 7.2 corners per game over their last five outings, indicating sustained attacking pressure.
Who do you think wins: Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Radomiak Radom's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 84.6% of their season games (11 of 13), and both teams average over 1.6 goals conceded per game in their last five.
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Match Result: Radomiak Radom Win
Radomiak Radom average 2.08 goals per game this season and have scored 21 home goals in nine matches, while Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have just one away win all season and a 1.75 goals conceded per game rate.
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More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
The Case For This Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction
Statistically, this friendly sets up as a moderate-to-high scoring contest, with Radomiak Radom's attack rate and defensive frailty both pulling the expected goal total upwards. The home side's 2.08 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game, paired with an 84.6% over 2.5 goals rate, define the match's shape. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's away defensive record (10 conceded in six away league games) and their 1.6 goals scored per game in their last five further support an open contest. Radomiak's home attack (21 goals in nine home matches) faces a Pogoń side that have kept just one away clean sheet all season. The visitors, however, have failed to score only once in their last five, and both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five. Radomiak's shot volume (14 per match, 4.4 on target last five) and corner rate (7.2 per game) suggest sustained attacking phases, but their last five also show defensive volatility with 1.6 goals conceded per game. The model expects Radomiak's superior attacking output at home to edge a match with multiple goals, but Pogoń's recent scoring form and Radomiak's low clean sheet rate (15.4%) mean both teams are likely to find the net. The likeliest scenario is a 2-1 home win, but the defensive numbers on both sides keep the draw and BTTS firmly in play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams have kept only two clean sheets each in their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Radomiak Radom's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 84.6% of games this season.
- →Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki average just 1 point per game and have only one away win all season.
🚩 Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 7.8 corners for Radomiak Radom and 5 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, for an expected total of 12.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (82%). Over 8.5: 89% · Over 10.5: 73%.
How Radomiak Radom and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Radomiak Radomlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Pogoń Grod. Mazowieckilast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Radomiak Radom's recent form is patchy, with two defeats and a draw in their last three, but their home scoring rate remains strong over the season. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have shown improvement in attack, scoring seven in their last five, but defensive lapses persist, and their away record remains poor.
Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 84.62% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
The two previous friendlies between these sides ended in draws (0-0 and 1-1), with neither team able to assert dominance. However, both teams' defensive numbers have worsened since, suggesting a higher-scoring contest this time.
Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Radomiak Radom wins
2
Draws
0
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins
Things to Watch: Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️As a friendly, motivation and rotation risk are elevated, and lineups are unknown.
- ⚠️Standings data is missing; league context is inferred from season records only.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Radomiak Radom 2–1 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiThe model calls a 2-1 win for Radomiak Radom, anchored by their 2.08 goals per game season average and the visitors' poor away defensive record. The main risk is the friendly setting, which could see weakened lineups or reduced intensity, but the underlying rates point firmly towards goals and a home edge.
Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: Common Questions
Who will win Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
Radomiak Radom are favoured with a 48% win probability, compared to 24% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 28% for the draw. The home side's superior scoring rate and Pogoń's weak away record drive this edge.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
There's a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals, strongly backed by Radomiak's 84.6% over 2.5 rate this season and both teams' recent defensive records.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, as Radomiak have kept just two clean sheets in their last five and Pogoń have scored in four of their last five matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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