Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Raków Częstochowa
AI Predicted Score
3 - 0
Arka Gdynia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 5(+6% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 2.50
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 3-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 3–0
Raków have a strong home record and Arka Gdynia are among the league's worst away sides, conceding over 2 goals per away game. The recent H2H also shows Raków scoring 4 in Gdynia earlier this season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.62
Both teams have high over 2.5 season rates (Raków 45%, Arka 61%), and Arka's defensive record away is very poor (37 conceded in 16).
BTTS: No@ 1.17
Arka have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and Raków's defense is solid at home. However, the odds are too short for significant value.
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The Case For This Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia Prediction
Raków Częstochowa enter this fixture as clear favorites, boasting a strong home record and facing an Arka Gdynia side with the league's worst away defense. Raków's attack is efficient, and their recent form is solid, while Arka are winless in five and leaking goals. The historical head-to-head is heavily in Raków's favor, and with Arka desperate for points but outmatched, a comfortable home win with multiple goals looks likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent H2H: Raków won 4-1 away earlier this season
Attack
- →Raków's home form and attacking efficiency
Defence
- →Arka Gdynia's away record: 1 win, 12 losses, 37 conceded in 16
- →Arka's current form: LDDLL, with 2.2 goals conceded per last 5
Match Context
- →League positions: Raków 4th, Arka 17th (relegation zone)
🚩 Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Raków Częstochowa and 4.3 for Arka Gdynia, for an expected total of 8.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 45% · Over 10.5: 21%.
How Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Raków Częstochowalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Arka Gdynialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Raków Częstochowa come in with a strong run, winning three of their last five and scoring freely, though they did suffer a recent home loss to Jagiellonia. Arka Gdynia, in contrast, are winless in their last five (LDDLL), conceding heavily and struggling for goals, especially away from home.
Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia
The head-to-head record is heavily in Raków's favor, with five wins in the last six meetings and consistent multi-goal performances. Arka's only win was back in 2020, and recent encounters have seen Raków dominate both home and away.
Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
5
Raków Częstochowa wins
0
Draws
1
Arka Gdynia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia
The model finds little value in the main markets due to the extremely short odds on Raków and BTTS no. The only slight edge is on BTTS yes, but this is more due to odds than expectation, and the underlying stats still favor a clean sheet for Raków. Over 2.5 goals is close to fair value and may appeal for multiples.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia
- ⚠️No major injuries reported but lineups are not confirmed
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, possession) in recent games
- ⚠️Arka may play defensively due to relegation threat, increasing draw risk slightly
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are very short on home win and BTTS no, limiting value
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.