Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Raków Częstochowa
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 2 - 1
Jagiellonia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 7(+39% edge)
Match Result
7.3/10Jagiellonia Stun Raków with Clinical 2-0 Away Triumph
Jagiellonia delivered a statement victory away at Raków Częstochowa, capitalizing on their chances to secure a 2-0 win despite being outplayed in several statistical categories. The hosts dominated possession with 60% and fired off a staggering 25 shots, but a lack of cutting edge in front of goal proved costly. Jagiellonia, meanwhile, were ruthlessly efficient, scoring in each half through well-timed strikes in the 34th and 83rd minutes. Raków’s attacking trio found space but not the finishing touch, while Jagiellonia’s compact 4-2-3-1 shape absorbed pressure and struck on the break. The visitors’ clinical edge, combined with resilient defending and a standout performance from their goalkeeper, ultimately decided the contest. Four yellow cards for Jagiellonia underscored their combative approach, but they kept their discipline to see out a deserved victory.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
34' — Goal
Jagiellonia break the deadlock with a well-worked move finished clinically.
45' — Yellow Card
Jagiellonia pick up their first booking, signaling their combative approach.
70' — Substitution
Raków make attacking changes in search of an equalizer.
83' — Goal
Jagiellonia double their lead, punishing Raków on the counter.
88' — Yellow Card
Jagiellonia receive their fourth yellow card as tensions rise late on.
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa controlled the tempo and territory for large stretches, enjoying 60% of possession and racking up 25 shots. However, only three of those efforts tested the goalkeeper, highlighting their struggles in the final third. The 3-4-3 system allowed for width and numbers in attack, but a lack of composure and sharpness in front of goal left them frustrated. Despite dominating the ball and forcing six corners, Raków’s inability to convert chances ultimately defined their evening. Defensively, they were caught out by Jagiellonia’s swift transitions, conceding at crucial moments in both halves.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia executed a disciplined and effective away performance, absorbing pressure and hitting Raków on the counter. With only 40% possession and 13 shots, they made their chances count, registering seven shots on target and scoring twice. Their 4-2-3-1 formation provided defensive solidity and allowed for quick transitions, frustrating the hosts and capitalizing on lapses at the back. The visitors’ defensive line, marshaled by S. Abramowicz in goal, stood firm under sustained pressure. Despite picking up four yellow cards, Jagiellonia maintained their composure and tactical discipline, sealing the win with a late second goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Raków’s 3-4-3 setup prioritized width and ball retention, with the wingbacks pushing high to support the attack. This allowed them to dominate possession but left spaces behind, which Jagiellonia exploited on the break. The visitors’ 4-2-3-1 shape was compact and disciplined, with two holding midfielders screening the back four and quick transitions through the attacking midfield trio. Jagiellonia’s willingness to concede possession paid dividends, as they focused on defensive solidity and direct attacks. Their set-piece defending was robust, and they managed the game well after taking the lead, using tactical fouls and substitutions to disrupt Raków’s rhythm.
Turning Point
Jagiellonia’s opening goal in the 34th minute shifted momentum, forcing Raków to chase the game and leaving them vulnerable to the decisive second goal late on.
Man of the Match
S. Abramowicz
Produced a series of vital saves and commanded his area, ensuring Jagiellonia’s clean sheet.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.5
The draw is slightly undervalued by the market, with both teams level on points and similar form. Recent H2H and both teams' high draw counts add support.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 7
Model sees this as a moderately high-scoring fixture, with both teams averaging over 1.4 goals for and 1.2 against per game, and Jagiellonia's high over 2.5 rate. Odds are extremely generous.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Prediction
This is a pivotal clash between two sides tied on points, both pushing for European qualification. Raków Częstochowa have found momentum at home, while Jagiellonia's attack is among the league's most potent but can be inconsistent away. Expect a tightly contested match with both teams likely to score, and a result that could hinge on small details or set pieces.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Raków have a strong home record and recent form (3 wins in last 4 league games).
Attack
- →Jagiellonia have the league's highest over 2.5 goal percentage and a strong attack.
- →Head-to-heads are balanced, but recent meetings have been high-scoring.
Defence
- →Both teams average above 1.4 goals scored per game, but clean sheet rates are below 30%.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →Both teams are level on points and in the top three, raising the stakes.
🚩 Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Raków Częstochowa and 5.6 for Jagiellonia, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Raków Częstochowalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Raków Częstochowa come in with 3 wins from their last 4 league matches, including a solid 2-0 home win last time out. Jagiellonia's form is mixed but features impressive attacking output, with a 3-2 win over Pogon Szczecin and a 3-0 away win at Arka Gdynia in their last three. Both teams have shown resilience but also defensive vulnerabilities.
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia
Head-to-head history is very even, with both sides winning away in recent years and several draws. The last four meetings have all seen both teams score, and three of those produced at least three goals, suggesting a trend towards open, competitive games.
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Raków Częstochowa wins
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia
The model identifies value on the draw, which is more likely than the odds suggest given both teams' similar records and high draw counts. There is also a significant edge on over 2.5 goals, as the market appears to underestimate the attacking potential and recent H2H goal trends. Home win odds are less attractive relative to model probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia
- ⚠️No lineups available at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Some match and player stats (shots, possession, etc.) missing for Raków's recent games.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to incomplete stat coverage and the high stakes possibly affecting game flow.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.