Russia vs Iran Prediction
Russia Edge Iran in Tight Friendly as Model Forecasts Low-Scoring Clash
International Friendly · World
Russia
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Iran
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Russia vs Iran Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Russia vs Iran Prediction
Russia and Iran meet in a friendly with both sides closely matched according to the analytics, as just 16 Elo points separate Russia (1776, rank 27) from Iran (1760, rank 31). The model sees Russia with a slight edge, projecting a 1-0 win, but the probabilities are finely balanced: 39.97% home win, 28.01% draw, and 32.03% away win. Expected goals are similarly close, with Russia's final expected goals (λ) at 1.25 and Iran's at 1.09 after factoring in recent form momentum. Both teams have shown defensive solidity in recent matches, and the top three correct scorelines—1-1 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.1%), and 0-1 (10.5%)—all point to a low-scoring affair where a single goal could prove decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Final expected goals: Russia 1.25, Iran 1.09 after momentum adjustments
Attack
- →Recent form boosts both attacks: Russia +13.5%, Iran +8.1%
Defence
- →Defensive suppression: Iran slightly leakier (1.102 factor) than Russia (1.0)
Match Context
- →Elo ratings nearly level: Russia 1776, Iran 1760 (16-point gap)
- →Top three correct scores all under 2.5 goals
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.33 · 1.27
From xG
1.18 · 1.05
Blended
1.25 · 1.09
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Russia attacking form lifts their goals ×1.14; Iran attacking form lifts their goals ×1.08.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Russia goals, columns = Iran goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
10.5%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Russia vs Iran that most previews miss.
- 1The most probable scoreline is 1-1 (13.1%), followed closely by 1-0 to Russia (12.1%).
- 2Iran's attack is powered by Mehdi Taremi, who alone accounts for 34.5 xG and 149 goals in the data sample.
- 3Russia have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches, conceding just 0.4 goals per game on average.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with the Elo ratings, where Russia's small 16-point lead translates to a marginal home advantage in expected score (0.523 vs 0.477). Next, it factors in attacking and defensive strengths: Russia's attack and defence lack recent detailed data, so baseline factors are used, while Iran's attack (factor 0.809) is slightly below par but boosted by above-average finishing (1.2) and a strong top scorer in Mehdi Taremi (34.5 xG, 149 goals). Momentum adjustments are then applied, reflecting recent form: Russia's attack is running hot (+13.5%), and Iran's is also elevated (+8.1%), while both sides' defences have been tighter than average (leak factors under 1). These adjustments nudge the blended expected goals to 1.25 for Russia and 1.09 for Iran. Finally, the model runs these scoring rates through a Poisson distribution to generate exact scoreline probabilities, resulting in a narrow Russia win as the most likely outcome.
More Friendlies Predictions
Russia vs Iran Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Russialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Iranlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Russia come into this match in good form, winning three of their last five and conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Their attack has also been lively, averaging 1.8 goals per game recently. Iran are unbeaten in their last five (3 draws, 2 wins), scoring 1.6 per game but conceding slightly more than Russia at 0.8. Both sides have shown defensive resilience, but Russia's recent clean sheet record is particularly impressive.
Russia vs Iran — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
🚩 Russia vs Iran Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.3 corners for Russia and 3.8 for Iran, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 43%.
What History Says: Russia vs Iran
These teams have met three times since 2017, with Russia unbeaten (1 win, 2 draws). Their last encounter ended 2-1 to Russia in 2025, while the previous two were 1-1 draws. The head-to-head history suggests a tendency towards closely contested, low-scoring matches.
Russia vs Iran Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
Russia wins
2
Draws
0
Iran wins
Things to Watch: Russia vs Iran
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are currently available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotations and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️Form data for international sides is often sparse and may not fully capture current team strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Russia 1–0 IranThe model narrowly favours Russia to win 1-0, with the single strongest factor being their slightly higher expected goals (1.25 vs 1.09) and a recent run of clean sheets. However, the probabilities for a draw or an away win are not far behind, and the most likely way this forecast goes wrong is if Iran's finishing quality, led by Taremi, finds a breakthrough against Russia's defence.
Russia vs Iran: Common Questions
Who will win Russia vs Iran?
The model gives Russia a 39.97% chance to win, Iran a 32.03% chance, and a draw 28.01%. The fixture is very close, with Russia only narrowly favoured.
Will both teams score in Russia vs Iran?
The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 47.23%, with 'No' slightly more likely at 52.77%. The model expects a low-scoring match.
What are the most likely scorelines for Russia vs Iran?
The top three correct score probabilities are 1-1 (13.1%), 1-0 to Russia (12.1%), and 0-1 to Iran (10.5%), all pointing to a tight, low-scoring contest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Russia vs Iran: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 15 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.