Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield Predictions
FA Cup · England
Scarborough Athletic
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Macclesfield
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
Recommended Bets: Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield
Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield: Match Preview
Scarborough Athletic and Macclesfield approach this FA Cup replay with nearly indistinguishable recent form. Scarborough are unbeaten in five, but four of those have been draws, including a 2-2 away at Macclesfield just days ago. Macclesfield, too, have drawn three of their last five, with a slightly higher goal output (1.2 per game) but also a tendency to concede late, as seen in their last meeting.
From a statistical perspective, both teams are defensively solid but not prolific going forward. Scarborough have kept three clean sheets in their last five, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while Macclesfield have two clean sheets and average 0.8 against. The head-to-head record is striking: four consecutive draws, with two matches finishing 2-2 and the other two under 2.5 goals. Both sides struggle to break each other down, and neither has a clear attacking edge. The lack of available set-piece and discipline data limits deeper analysis, but recent matches suggest a low-event, risk-averse pattern.
Given these rates and the head-to-head history, the model projects a low-scoring, tightly contested replay, with the draw the most likely outcome. Under 2.5 goals is favoured, and a 1-1 scoreline best fits the distribution of recent results and attacking output. The most plausible deviation would come from an early goal forcing one side to open up, but the numbers point to another close contest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield that most previews miss.
- 1All four previous meetings between these sides have finished level, with two ending 2-2 and two under 2.5 goals.
- 2Scarborough's last five matches have produced just eight total goals (1.6 per game), with three clean sheets in that span.
- 3Macclesfield have scored in the final 10 minutes in two of their last three matches, suggesting late drama is possible.
Who do you think wins: Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
All four previous meetings between these sides have finished level, and both teams' recent form is dominated by draws (Scarborough: 4/5, Macclesfield: 3/5). The model gives a 43% probability to the draw, making it the likeliest single outcome.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Scarborough's last five matches average just 1.6 total goals, and three of their last five have gone under 2.5. Macclesfield have failed to score in one of their last five and have two clean sheets in that span. The model assigns a 59% probability to under 2.5 goals.
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The Case For This Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield Prediction
Statistically, this tie is a meeting of two sides with nearly identical recent records and a remarkable history of stalemates. Scarborough Athletic have drawn four of their last five, while Macclesfield have three draws in the same span, and all four head-to-heads since 2025 have ended level. The underlying scoring rates are modest, with neither side averaging more than 1.2 goals for or 0.8–1.0 goals against in their last five outings. Both teams have demonstrated defensive resilience, with Scarborough keeping three clean sheets in five and Macclesfield two. The model expects a cautious, low-scoring contest with a high probability of another draw, shaped by both sides' conservative approach and their consistent inability to separate themselves in previous encounters.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Scarborough's last five matches average just 1.6 total goals.
Defence
- →Scarborough have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches; Macclesfield have two.
Match Context
- →All four previous head-to-head meetings have ended in draws.
How Scarborough Athletic and Macclesfield Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Scarborough Athleticlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Macclesfieldlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Scarborough Athletic are unbeaten in their last five, but four of those have been draws, highlighting a struggle to turn solid defensive work into wins. Macclesfield have a near-identical recent record, with three draws and two wins in their last five, and both sides have shown a tendency to keep matches tight, rarely conceding more than once.
Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield
The head-to-head record is striking: all four meetings since November 2025 have ended in draws, with two 2-2 scorelines and two lower-scoring stalemates. Neither side has managed to assert dominance, and the pattern points to another close contest.
Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
0
Scarborough Athletic wins
4
Draws
0
Macclesfield wins
Things to Watch: Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield
- ⚠️No home/away form split is available for Scarborough's home matches this season.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available to confirm value edges.
- ⚠️Limited sample size for both teams' season records (only two FA Cup matches each).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Scarborough Athletic 1–1 MacclesfieldThe model's call is a 1-1 draw, driven by the remarkable run of four consecutive stalemates between these teams and their nearly identical recent defensive and attacking rates. The strongest data point is the head-to-head record, which suggests neither side can assert dominance. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if an early goal disrupts the usual cagey pattern, forcing one team to chase the game.
Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield: Common Questions
Who will win Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield?
The model gives Scarborough a 33% chance to win, Macclesfield a 24% chance, and the draw a 43% chance. All four previous meetings have ended level, and both teams' recent form is dominated by draws.
Will both teams score in Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield?
There's a 48% probability both teams score, with Scarborough keeping three clean sheets in their last five and Macclesfield two. Recent head-to-heads have split between 2-2 and low-scoring draws, so BTTS is close to a coin flip.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield?
The model estimates a 59% probability for under 2.5 goals, based on Scarborough's low-scoring recent matches (1.6 goals per game on average) and a history of tight contests between these sides.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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