Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Predictions
Super League · China
Shandong Luneng
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 2 - 1
Henan Jianye
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.2/10Henan Jianye Stun Shandong Luneng with Clinical First-Half Double
Henan Jianye produced a disciplined and ruthless display to defeat Shandong Luneng 2-1 at the Jinan Olympic Sports Center, handing the hosts a rare home setback. Despite Shandong dominating possession with 62% and firing 15 shots (6 on target), it was Henan who struck twice in the first half through incisive attacking moves, leaving the home side with too much to do after the break. Henan opened the scoring on 30 minutes and doubled their lead right on the stroke of halftime, capitalizing on defensive lapses and quick transitions. Shandong responded with renewed vigor in the second half, pulling a goal back in the 57th minute, but their efforts were ultimately stifled by Henan’s organized defense and some wasteful finishing. The visitors held firm under pressure, sealing a vital away win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
Key Moments
30' — Goal
Gustavo finishes off a swift counterattack to give Henan Jianye the lead.
45' — Goal
Henan double their advantage just before halftime, capitalizing on a defensive lapse.
57' — Goal
Zeca pulls one back for Shandong Luneng, igniting hopes of a comeback.
68' — Yellow Card
Henan Jianye pick up their third yellow as the pressure mounts.
80' — Substitution
Shandong Luneng make attacking substitutions in search of an equalizer.
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng controlled the tempo for much of the match, enjoying 62% of the ball and creating a steady stream of chances. Their 15 shots and 6 on target reflected attacking intent, but a lack of clinical edge in front of goal, combined with defensive lapses in the first half, proved costly. The 4-4-2 setup provided width and numbers in attack, but Henan’s compact shape frustrated the home side, especially in the final third. Despite a spirited second-half fightback and a goal on 57 minutes, Shandong could not break down Henan’s resilient backline again. Two yellow cards and 10 fouls highlighted their growing frustration as time ticked away.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye executed a textbook away performance, soaking up pressure and striking decisively on the break. With only 38% possession, they made their 11 shots count, finding the net twice in the first half to seize control. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for quick transitions, and their midfield trio disrupted Shandong’s rhythm effectively. Defensively, Henan were robust, conceding just once despite facing sustained pressure and 15 shots. Their discipline was tested with 15 fouls and three yellow cards, but they maintained composure to see out the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Shandong Luneng lined up in a classic 4-4-2, aiming to control the flanks and overload the box. Their high possession and attacking impetus were evident, but they struggled to penetrate Henan’s compact 4-2-3-1, which sat deep and denied space between the lines. Henan’s midfield double pivot shielded the back four effectively, while their attacking trio pressed selectively, forcing turnovers and launching quick transitions. Substitutions in the second half saw Shandong push more men forward, but Henan responded by tightening their defensive lines and relying on set pieces and counters. The visitors’ ability to absorb pressure and remain organized underlined their tactical maturity.
Turning Point
Henan Jianye’s second goal on the stroke of halftime, which gave them a crucial cushion and forced Shandong to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Gustavo
Opened the scoring and led the line with intelligence, setting the tone for Henan’s victory.
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye: Match Preview
Shandong Luneng come into this fixture sitting sixth in the Super League, having won five of their nine home games and scoring at a rate of 2.44 per match in Jinan. Their recent form is erratic—three wins and two defeats in the last five—but they remain one of the division's most prolific sides, with 35 goals in 19 matches. Henan Jianye, 12th in the table, have been inconsistent away from home, winning only three of nine and scoring just nine times on their travels. Both sides are still in the hunt for the top half, but Shandong's superior points tally and home record provide a statistical edge.
The matchup is defined by attacking strengths and defensive frailties. Shandong's last five matches have averaged 4.8 total goals, while Henan's have seen 3.2. Neither side keeps clean sheets reliably—Shandong's season clean sheet rate is just 10.5%, and Henan's is only 16.7%. Shot volumes are healthy on both sides (Shandong 11.2, Henan 12.2 per game last five), and both have averaged at least five shots on target per match over that stretch. Goal timing data shows Shandong are quick starters (eight first-half goals in their last five), while Henan have been more productive after the break.
Given these trends, the model projects a match with multiple goals and a slight tilt towards the hosts, whose home attack is among the league's best. Henan's recent five-goal performance signals threat, but their away scoring rate and porous defence suggest Shandong are more likely to take three points. The most probable result is a 2-1 home win, but the volatility in both teams' recent results keeps the draw and BTTS probabilities significant.
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Expected goals · model says 1.90
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
64%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye that most previews miss.
- 1Shandong Luneng home matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 73.7% of games this season.
- 2Henan Jianye have failed to score in just one of their last five matches, but average only 1.0 goal per away game in the league.
- 3Shandong have scored eight first-half goals in their last five, more than any other 15-minute segment.
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The Case For This Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Prediction
Shandong Luneng's home matches have produced an average of 3.89 goals per game this season, with 73.7% finishing over 2.5 goals, while Henan Jianye's away fixtures average 2.33 goals. Both sides have shown attacking intent in recent weeks: Shandong average 3.0 goals scored in their last five, Henan 1.8. However, neither keeps clean sheets reliably, with Shandong's season clean sheet rate at just 10.5% and Henan's at 16.7%. The statistical matchup points to a clash of high-output attack against leaky defences. Shandong's shot volume at home (11.2 per game last five) and Henan's 5.2 shots on target per match recently suggest both will create chances. Shandong's home defensive record (13 conceded in 9) is only marginally better than Henan's away defence (12 in 9), and both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five league games. Set piece threat is moderate, with neither side averaging more than 3.4 corners per match recently, and discipline is a mild concern: Henan average 1.4 yellows per game over the last five, Shandong 0.8. The model expects a match played at a brisk tempo, with Shandong's superior home scoring rate (2.44 per home game) likely to tip the balance. Henan's recent five-goal outburst shows they can threaten, but their away goal output (1.0 per game) remains modest. The likeliest outcome is a narrow home win in a game with multiple goals, but the defensive vulnerabilities and recent H2H draws keep the draw and BTTS probabilities elevated.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Shandong Luneng average 2.44 goals scored per home game this season, with 73.7% of matches over 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Henan Jianye concede 1.33 goals per away game and have scored just 9 in 9 away league matches.
- →Both teams have kept only one clean sheet in their last five league matches.
🚩 Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Shandong Luneng and 4.4 for Henan Jianye, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Shandong Lunenglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shandong Luneng's recent form is a mixed bag, with three wins and two losses in their last five, but they have averaged three goals scored per game over that stretch. Henan Jianye have also been inconsistent, alternating defeats with wins, but their 5-1 victory last time out suggests renewed attacking confidence. Both teams have struggled for defensive solidity, keeping just one clean sheet each in their last five league matches.
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye
Shandong Luneng have dominated home meetings with Henan Jianye, winning three of the last four in Jinan, including a 5-1 rout in 2023. However, the fixture has produced several draws recently, with three of the last six overall ending level. Both teams have scored in half of the last ten encounters, and the last league meeting finished 1-0 to the away side.
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Shandong Luneng wins
3
Draws
2
Henan Jianye wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value assessment is not possible. If odds become available, the model's strongest positions are on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, given the high goal rates and defensive records. Any price above 1.65 for over 2.5 goals or 1.70 for BTTS would merit close scrutiny.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value assessment not possible.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is volatile, with high-scoring wins and heavy defeats.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but possible late lineup changes could affect attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Shandong Luneng 2–1 Henan JianyeThe model favours Shandong Luneng to win 2-1, driven primarily by their 2.44 goals per home game and Henan's modest away scoring rate. The most plausible way this forecast goes wrong is if Henan's recent attacking surge continues and exposes Shandong's low clean sheet percentage, turning the contest into a high-scoring draw.
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye: Common Questions
Who will win Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng are rated 46% likely to win, with Henan Jianye at 24% and a draw at 30%. The home side's strong scoring record and better league position give them the statistical edge.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61%, based on both sides scoring in three of their last five matches and neither keeping clean sheets reliably this season.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals, with Shandong's home games seeing an average of 3.89 goals and Henan's last five matches averaging 3.2 total goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.