Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Predictions
Super League · China
Shandong Luneng
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu: Match Preview
Shandong Luneng enter this fixture in strong form, winning four of their last five and sitting fifth in the table. Their home record is robust (7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), and they have scored 28 goals in just 12 home games. Sichuan Jiuniu, by contrast, are 10th and have struggled badly on their travels, losing 9 of 12 away and conceding at a rate of 2.25 per game. The gap in points (42 vs 27) and goal difference (+3 vs -11) underlines the hosts' statistical superiority.
The matchup is defined by Shandong's attacking output against Jiuniu's defensive frailties. Shandong's home games average 3.75 total goals, and 72% have gone over 2.5. Their last five matches see them averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Jiuniu have allowed 1.4 per game in that same span. Jiuniu's away attack is blunt (0.83 per game), but Shandong's low clean sheet rate (12%) means a consolation goal is plausible. Both sides average over 4 corners and 2.5 yellow cards per game, suggesting set pieces and discipline could play a role, but the main edge lies in open play.
The model expects Shandong's attack to set the tempo, with a high probability of an early breakthrough (58% for a goal before 30 minutes) and a strong chance of multiple goals. While Jiuniu's away record makes a comeback unlikely, Shandong's tendency to concede means a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline is most likely. The statistical distribution supports over 2.5 goals and a home win as the most probable outcomes.
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Expected goals · model says 2.05
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu that most previews miss.
- 1Shandong Luneng's home matches have produced over 2.5 goals in 72% of cases, the highest rate among the top six.
- 2Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 2.6 yellow cards per game over their last five, matching Shandong's rate and pointing to a likely feisty contest.
- 3In all five H2H meetings, Shandong have scored at least three goals in four of them, with no draws recorded.
Who do you think wins: Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' season-long rates point to a high-scoring environment: Shandong Luneng's matches have cleared 2.5 goals in 72% of games, and their home attack averages 2.33 goals per match, while Sichuan Jiuniu concede 2.25 away from home.
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Match Result: Shandong Luneng Win
Shandong Luneng combine a strong home record (7W-3D-2L, 28 scored in 12) with a perfect H2H record (5 wins from 5), while Sichuan Jiuniu have lost 9 of 12 away, conceding 2.25 per match.
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a high-probability home win in a match with above-average goal expectancy. Shandong Luneng's attack at home (2.33 goals/game) is among the league's most consistent, while Sichuan Jiuniu's away defence (2.25 conceded/game) is the softest in the top half. The H2H record is one-sided, but the underlying rates—especially in goals and shots—point to a contest where the hosts' offensive output should decide the outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Shandong Luneng average 2.33 goals scored per home match, with 72% of their games finishing over 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Sichuan Jiuniu have lost 9 of 12 away matches, conceding 27 goals (2.25 per game) and keeping just 2 clean sheets.
Match Context
- →All five previous meetings have been won by Shandong Luneng, with an aggregate score of 16-5.
🚩 Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Shandong Luneng and 5 for Sichuan Jiuniu, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Shandong Lunenglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sichuan Jiuniulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shandong Luneng arrive in excellent form, having won four of their last five, including a 3-2 away win at Shanghai Shenhua. Their attack has been consistent, averaging 1.8 goals per game over this stretch. Sichuan Jiuniu's form is more erratic, with two wins and three losses in their last five, and their away record remains a major concern.
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72% of games this season
What History Says: Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Shandong Luneng have dominated this fixture historically, winning all five previous meetings and scoring at least two goals in each. The most recent encounter ended 2-1 in Shandong's favour, and four of the five matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
5
Shandong Luneng wins
0
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu wins
Things to Watch: Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are unavailable, so no value edge can be formally calculated.
- ⚠️Shandong's defensive record is mediocre (1.68 conceded per game), and their clean sheet rate is just 12%, leaving scope for a Jiuniu goal.
- ⚠️Both teams have fluctuating form and discipline issues (2.6 yellows per game each), which could impact game flow.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Shandong Luneng 2–1 Sichuan JiuniuThe most probable outcome is a 2-1 win for Shandong Luneng, driven by their 2.33 goals per home match and Jiuniu's porous away defence. The single strongest data point is Shandong's 72% over 2.5 goals rate at home. The biggest risk is Shandong's low clean sheet percentage, which could allow Jiuniu to keep the match close or force a higher-scoring draw.
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu: Common Questions
Who will win Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shandong Luneng are favoured with a 56% probability of victory, based on their strong home record (7 wins in 12) and perfect head-to-head record against Sichuan Jiuniu. The away side's 18% win probability reflects their poor away form (2W-1D-9L).
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
There is a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals, supported by Shandong Luneng's 72% over 2.5 rate this season and both teams' recent scoring and conceding trends.
Is both teams to score likely in this match?
The model gives a 57% chance of both teams scoring, as Shandong have kept just 12% clean sheets and Jiuniu have scored in three of their last five matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.