Sint Maarten vs Anguilla Prediction
Sint Maarten Hold the Edge Over Anguilla in Low-Scoring Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Sint Maarten
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Anguilla
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sint Maarten vs Anguilla Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Sint Maarten vs Anguilla?
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The Case For This Sint Maarten vs Anguilla Prediction
Sint Maarten and Anguilla meet in a friendly international with both sides desperate to reverse poor recent form. The model gives Sint Maarten a clear advantage, driven by a 329-point Elo gap (975 vs 646), translating to a 56% win probability for the hosts. However, both teams are coming off extended losing streaks, and attacking data is sparse, making this a contest likely to be decided by defensive errors as much as attacking quality. Expected goals are modest: the model’s blended and momentum-adjusted line sits at 1.7 for Sint Maarten and just 0.91 for Anguilla. Recent form has dampened both teams’ attacking outlooks, with momentum multipliers of just 0.85 applied to each side’s attack. The most likely scoreline is a narrow 1-0 win for Sint Maarten, with low confidence in either side finding the net more than once.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Model's final expected goals: Sint Maarten 1.7, Anguilla 0.91 after momentum adjustment.
Attack
- →Both teams’ recent attacking form is poor (attack momentum 0.85 for each).
Match Context
- →Sint Maarten's Elo rating is 329 points higher than Anguilla's (975 vs 646).
- →Probability of a home win is 56%, with just a 20% chance for Anguilla.
- →Most likely scorelines are 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (11.4%), and 2-0 (10.7%).
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.96 · 0.64
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.70 · 0.91
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Sint Maarten's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Sint Maarten's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18; Anguilla's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Anguilla's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Sint Maarten goals, columns = Anguilla goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.5%
1-1
11.4%
2-0
10.7%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sint Maarten vs Anguilla that most previews miss.
- 1Both Sint Maarten and Anguilla have failed to score in four of their last five matches.
- 2Anguilla have conceded an average of 2.8 goals per game over their last five outings.
- 3The model assigns just a 48.4% probability to over 2.5 goals, reflecting limited attacking threat.
How the Model Reached This
The model starts by weighing the Elo ratings, which show Sint Maarten with a significant 329-point advantage over Anguilla. This sets a strong baseline expectation for a home win, with Sint Maarten's Elo-derived expected score at 0.869 compared to Anguilla's 0.131. Next, it incorporates expected goals based on attacking and defensive factors, but due to a lack of granular data for both teams, these are set at parity before blending with the Elo baseline. Recent form is then factored in: both sides have struggled to score, reflected in attack momentum multipliers of 0.85, which reduce their expected goal outputs. The final expected goals after all adjustments are 1.7 for Sint Maarten and 0.91 for Anguilla. These figures are run through a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities, resulting in a 56% chance of a Sint Maarten win and a predicted score of 1-0.
More Friendlies Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sint Maarten vs Anguilla
Bookmaker odds are currently unavailable for this fixture, so it is not possible to identify positive expected value bets or compare the model’s probabilities to market prices. Should odds become available, the model’s 56% home win probability and low-scoring outlook would be key reference points for value.
Odds from Marathonbet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Sint Maarten vs Anguilla Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sint Maartenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Anguillalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Both teams come into this fixture on the back of poor form. Sint Maarten have lost four and drawn one of their last five matches, averaging just 0.4 goals scored and conceding 2 per game. Anguilla have fared even worse, losing all of their last five and conceding 2.8 goals per match, with both sides failing to score in four of their last five outings. Data is sparse, but neither team has shown recent signs of attacking improvement.
Sint Maarten vs Anguilla — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
🚩 Sint Maarten vs Anguilla Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Sint Maarten and 4 for Anguilla, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
What History Says: Sint Maarten vs Anguilla
There is no recent head-to-head data available between Sint Maarten and Anguilla, reflecting the rarity of this fixture at international level. This lack of direct history increases the uncertainty around the model’s projections, as neither side has a proven record against the other.
Sint Maarten vs Anguilla Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Sint Maarten wins
1
Draws
0
Anguilla wins
Things to Watch: Sint Maarten vs Anguilla
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available for this match, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies between low-ranked sides often have sparse data, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Recent form and lack of head-to-head history make the outcome less predictable than the model confidence suggests.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sint Maarten 1–0 AnguillaThe model sees Sint Maarten as clear favourites, projecting a 1-0 victory based primarily on their 329-point Elo advantage and Anguilla's defensive frailties. However, with both teams showing weak attacking momentum and a combined 8 out of 10 recent games ending with one or both sides failing to score, a low-scoring draw or narrow win either way remains plausible if finishing quality is especially poor.
Sint Maarten vs Anguilla: Common Questions
Who will win Sint Maarten vs Anguilla?
The model gives Sint Maarten a 56% chance of victory, with a 24% probability of a draw and just 20% for Anguilla.
How many goals are expected in Sint Maarten vs Anguilla?
The model’s final expected goals are 1.7 for Sint Maarten and 0.91 for Anguilla, with under 2.5 goals slightly favoured at 52% probability.
What are the most likely scorelines for Sint Maarten vs Anguilla?
The three most probable correct scores are 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (11.4%), and 2-0 (10.7%) according to the model.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sint Maarten vs Anguilla: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 9 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.