Spennymoor Town vs Chorley Predictions
National League - North · England
Spennymoor Town
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Chorley
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Chorley Win
Recommended Bets: Spennymoor Town vs Chorley
Spennymoor Town vs Chorley: Match Preview
Spennymoor Town enter this fixture rooted to the bottom of the National League North with just one win and a league-worst defensive record, having conceded 23 goals in 11 matches. Chorley, meanwhile, sit mid-table but are ten points clear of their hosts and have won three of their last five in all competitions. Spennymoor's recent form string of 'LLWDW' includes a notable 4-1 FA Cup victory, but league results remain poor, while Chorley arrive off a narrow FA Cup exit but back-to-back league wins.
Statistically, this is a clash between the league's leakiest defence and a Chorley side that, while not prolific away, have enough firepower to exploit Spennymoor's vulnerabilities. Spennymoor concede 2.09 goals per league game and have kept no clean sheets, while Chorley average 1.64 scored and 1.64 conceded per match. Both teams' matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 8 out of 11 league games, and BTTS has landed in four of their last five. The head-to-head record is competitive, but Chorley have taken two of the last three away meetings.
The model expects Chorley to create the better chances, especially as Spennymoor's defensive numbers show no sign of stabilising. While Spennymoor's attack has improved recently (2.4 goals per game in the last five), their concession rate remains the overriding factor. Expect a match with above-average goal volume, with Chorley more likely to edge it due to their superior balance and Spennymoor's ongoing defensive issues.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Spennymoor Town vs Chorley Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Spennymoor Town vs Chorley that most previews miss.
- 1Spennymoor Town have failed to keep a single league clean sheet in 11 matches, conceding in 100% of games.
- 2Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their 11 league fixtures (72.7%).
- 3Nine of the last ten H2H meetings have produced a winner, with just one draw in that span.
Who do you think wins: Spennymoor Town vs Chorley?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Spennymoor Town vs Chorley(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Chorley Win
Chorley have a substantially higher points tally (17 vs 7), a stronger away record than Spennymoor's home record, and Spennymoor have the league's worst defensive rate at 2.09 conceded per game.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have seen over 2.5 goals in 72.7% of their league matches; Spennymoor's games average 3.18 goals, and Chorley's 3.27.
BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches, and neither side has a strong clean sheet rate (Spennymoor 0%, Chorley 9%).
More National League - North Predictions
The Case For This Spennymoor Town vs Chorley Prediction
The statistical profile points to a high-scoring contest, with Chorley holding the edge due to Spennymoor's defensive frailty and the visitors' more reliable attack. Both teams' matches trend well above league average for goals, and neither side has demonstrated consistent defensive solidity. Chorley's away output is modest, but Spennymoor's home defence has been porous, so the model expects Chorley to capitalise.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Spennymoor Town have conceded 2.09 goals per game this season, worst in the league.
Match Context
- →Chorley have collected 10 more points than Spennymoor after 11 matches (17 vs 7).
- →Both teams' matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 72.7% of league fixtures.
How Spennymoor Town and Chorley Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Spennymoor Town vs Chorley Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Spennymoor Townlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chorleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Spennymoor Town's recent form remains troubling, with just one win in their last five and a current two-match losing streak. Their attack has shown flashes, particularly in a 4-1 FA Cup win, but defensive issues persist. Chorley, by contrast, have won three of their last five in all competitions and have picked up momentum in the league, despite a recent FA Cup exit.
Spennymoor Town vs Chorley — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.73% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.73% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Spennymoor Town vs Chorley
The head-to-head record is closely contested, with Chorley winning five and Spennymoor four of the last ten meetings. Only one of those ten has ended level, and the last four have alternated between home and away wins. Recent encounters have tended towards lower scores, but Chorley have taken two of the last three at Spennymoor.
Spennymoor Town vs Chorley Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Spennymoor Town wins
1
Draws
5
Chorley wins
Things to Watch: Spennymoor Town vs Chorley
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value calculations and expected value are unavailable.
- ⚠️Limited recent match data for shots, corners, and cards; set piece and discipline predictions are less robust.
- ⚠️Spennymoor's recent home form includes a 4-1 FA Cup win, indicating some attacking upside not captured in league-only data.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Spennymoor Town 1–2 ChorleyThe model projects a 2-1 win for Chorley, anchored by Spennymoor Town's 2.09 goals conceded per game and lack of a clean sheet all season. The main risk is Spennymoor's recent attacking uptick, which could see them score more than expected if Chorley's away defence falters.
Spennymoor Town vs Chorley: Common Questions
Who will win Spennymoor Town vs Chorley?
Chorley are favoured with a 49% win probability, compared to 22% for Spennymoor Town and 29% for the draw, reflecting Chorley's superior league position and Spennymoor's defensive struggles.
Will both teams score in Spennymoor Town vs Chorley?
There's a 59% probability of both teams scoring, as both sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five league matches and neither keeps clean sheets reliably.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Spennymoor Town vs Chorley?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 60%, supported by both teams' high-scoring match profiles—each has gone over 2.5 in 72.7% of league games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Spennymoor Town vs Chorley: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Spennymoor Town vs Chorley Resources
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National League - North Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results