Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Predictions
UEFA Nations League · World
Sweden
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.33(+8% edge)
Recommended Bets: Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: Match Preview
Sweden arrive at Strawberry Arena top of their Nations League group, unbeaten after four games and buoyed by back-to-back home wins over Romania and Poland. Bosnia & Herzegovina sit just behind in second, also unbeaten and fresh from a gritty 1-0 win over Poland. With both sides eyeing promotion, the stakes are high and neither can afford to slip up.
Sweden's attacking metrics at home are robust—averaging 2.5 goals and 12 shots per game in Solna—while Bosnia's away defence has proven stubborn, conceding only twice in two away fixtures and keeping Poland scoreless in Warsaw. The tactical battle will hinge on Sweden's ability to break down Bosnia's well-organised back line, while Bosnia will look to exploit set pieces and transition moments, having drawn more fouls (11.8 per match) and shown a knack for late goals.
Despite Sweden's edge in attacking output and home form, the market's short price on a home win is not fully justified by the data. Bosnia's compactness and ability to frustrate, as seen in the 1-1 reverse fixture, suggest this could be another close contest. The model leans towards a narrow Sweden victory, but the draw is a live runner and offers the best value at current odds.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
The biggest divergence between the model and the market is on the draw, where the model's 25% probability outpaces the 23% implied by 4.33 odds. Sweden's price as strong favourites looks a shade short given Bosnia's away resilience and the close nature of the reverse fixture. Other markets, such as BTTS 'no', are priced about right, offering little edge.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.38
The model assigns a 25% probability to the draw, slightly higher than the 23% implied by 4.33 odds, and recent H2H (1-1 in Bosnia) plus both teams' tendency to keep games close in the Nations League (each conceding under 1 goal per game) support the price being too long.
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Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina that most previews miss.
- 1Seven of the 13 combined group goals from these sides have come in the first half, highlighting a tendency for early action.
- 2Bosnia & Herzegovina have kept two clean sheets in four group games, both away from home.
- 3Sweden's last five matches have averaged 2.6 cards per game, but Bosnia's have averaged 4.4, suggesting an uptick in bookings is likely.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.90
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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More UEFA Nations League Predictions
The Case For This Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Prediction
Bookmakers have Sweden as clear favourites at home, but the underlying data paints a more nuanced picture. Sweden's perfect home record in this Nations League group (2 wins from 2, 5 goals scored) is countered by Bosnia & Herzegovina's resilience on their travels, having taken four points from two away games and conceding only twice. Both sides are unbeaten in the group, separated by just two points, and their only previous meeting ended level. Statistically, Sweden's attack (1.75 goals per game in the group, 10.2 shots and 3.8 on target per match over the last five) will test a Bosnia defence that has kept two clean sheets in four group matches and averages just 1 goal conceded per game. Bosnia's own attack has produced 1.5 goals per game in the group, and they showed they can score away (4-2 win in Romania), but their shot volume is slightly lower than Sweden's. Both teams have shown a tendency to start fast: 7 of their combined 13 group goals have come before half-time. The market's heavy lean towards Sweden at 1.5 odds looks aggressive given Bosnia's away record and the evenness of the reverse fixture. The model expects Sweden's home edge and attacking depth to eventually tell, but Bosnia's compact shape and set-piece threat (3 corners per game, 11.8 fouls drawn) mean this could stay tight into the second half. A 2-1 home win is most likely, but the draw offers the best value given the data.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Bosnia & Herzegovina are unbeaten away, including a 4-2 win in Romania and a 0-0 in Poland.
Attack
- →The only previous H2H finished 1-1 in Bosnia, showing little between the sides.
Defence
- →Sweden have won both home games in the group, scoring five and conceding two.
🚩 Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Sweden and 4 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Sweden and Bosnia & Herzegovina Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Swedenlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bosnia & Herzegovinalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sweden are riding a strong run, unbeaten in this Nations League group with three wins and a draw, and have been especially effective at home (five goals in two matches). Bosnia & Herzegovina have also yet to lose, with two wins and two draws, including a notable 4-2 win in Romania. Both sides have shown defensive strength, each conceding just three goals in four group games.
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
There is only one recent head-to-head to draw on, a 1-1 draw in Bosnia in October. That match was tightly contested, with both teams scoring in the second half, and neither able to establish clear superiority. The parity in that fixture is reflected in the model's relatively high draw probability here.
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Sweden wins
1
Draws
0
Bosnia & Herzegovina wins
Things to Watch: Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
- ⚠️Only one recent H2H, so limited historical matchup data.
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive numbers are strong, increasing draw likelihood but also making goal markets less certain.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but final lineups could impact attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sweden 2–1 Bosnia & HerzegovinaThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Sweden, driven chiefly by their perfect home record and higher attacking shot volume. However, Bosnia's defensive resilience and the evenness of the reverse fixture mean the draw is a genuine threat—if Sweden struggle to break Bosnia down, a repeat of the 1-1 in Sarajevo is entirely plausible.
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: Common Questions
Who will win Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
Sweden are favoured with a 59% probability of victory, but Bosnia & Herzegovina's unbeaten away form and the 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture mean the draw (25%) is a significant runner. The market's odds on Sweden (1.5) look a touch short compared to the model's assessment.
Will both teams score in Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, slightly above even money, reflecting both sides' recent attacking output and the 1-1 scoreline when they last met.
Is there value in betting the draw for Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
Yes—the model assigns a 25% chance to the draw, while the odds of 4.33 imply only 23%, creating an 8% edge. With both teams defensively sound and their only recent meeting ending level, the draw is the standout value option.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Resources
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Bosnia & Herzegovina Predictions
All Bosnia & Herzegovina fixtures & tips
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Stats
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Sweden — next match predictions
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Romania
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UEFA Nations League Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results