Tenerife vs FC Andorra Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Tenerife
Full Time
2 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
FC Andorra
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8/10Late Drama as Nine-Man FC Andorra Salvage 2-2 Draw at Tenerife
Tenerife and FC Andorra played out a pulsating 2-2 draw at the Heliodoro Rodríguez López, with the visitors mounting a dramatic late comeback despite finishing the match with just nine men. Tenerife looked set for victory after taking a commanding 2-0 lead by the 39th minute, but a flurry of cards and two late goals from Andorra turned the contest on its head. The hosts struck early and doubled their advantage before halftime, making the most of their limited possession. However, the tide shifted in the final ten minutes, as FC Andorra—despite being reduced to nine men—found the net twice in quick succession to snatch a point. The match was a tempestuous affair, with three red cards and nine yellows underscoring a fiercely competitive encounter.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
3' — Goal
Enric Gallego opens the scoring for Tenerife with an early strike.
39' — Goal
Tenerife double their lead, capitalizing on a rare attacking foray.
Second Half' — Red Card
Tenerife reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum in Andorra's favor.
Second Half' — Red Card
FC Andorra receive their first red card but continue to press forward.
83' — Goal
D. Diaz pulls one back for FC Andorra, setting up a tense finale.
88' — Goal
L. de León completes the comeback with a dramatic equalizer for nine-man Andorra.
Late Second Half' — Red Card
FC Andorra reduced to nine men but hold on for the draw.
Tenerife
Tenerife started brightly, capitalizing on their opportunities to establish a 2-0 lead by the 39th minute. Despite enjoying just 26% possession and registering only five shots (two on target), they were clinical in front of goal. However, their inability to control the game and a red card in the second half left them vulnerable, and they ultimately surrendered their lead late on. Defensively, Tenerife were resolute for much of the match but struggled to withstand Andorra's late pressure, particularly after going down to ten men. Their lack of attacking threat after halftime and inability to manage the game in the closing stages proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
FC Andorra
FC Andorra dominated possession with a remarkable 74% and outshot their hosts 11 to 5, but initially struggled to break down Tenerife's compact defensive shape. Despite falling two goals behind and suffering two red cards, Andorra showed impressive resilience, mounting a spirited late comeback with goals in the 83rd and 88th minutes to earn a dramatic draw. Their attacking persistence paid off late, as they capitalized on Tenerife's fatigue and numerical disadvantage. However, indiscipline nearly cost them dearly, with a total of six yellow cards and two reds disrupting their rhythm.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Tenerife deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their early goals came from direct play, but as the game wore on, they struggled to retain possession and create further chances, especially after being reduced to ten men. Substitutions appeared to be reactive, aiming to shore up the defense rather than regain attacking impetus. FC Andorra lined up in a 4-3-3, prioritizing possession and width. Their patient build-up and high pressing eventually wore down Tenerife, particularly in the closing stages. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Andorra pushed more bodies forward late on, exploiting tired legs in the Tenerife defense and making effective use of set pieces and wide areas.
Turning Point
D. Diaz's goal in the 83rd minute shifted momentum, inspiring nine-man Andorra to complete their comeback.
Man of the Match
D. Diaz
Sparked Andorra's late revival with a crucial goal and relentless attacking effort, even as his team was reduced to nine men.
Tenerife vs FC Andorra: Match Preview
Tenerife enter this fixture sitting 14th after a run of three consecutive draws and no wins in their last five, with a negative goal difference and just five goals scored at home all season. FC Andorra, 18th and only three points behind, have lost three of their last five but did manage a 3-2 win at Granada, showing some resilience despite a leaky defence. Both teams are in need of points to avoid slipping further towards the relegation zone, but neither side has built any momentum.
The statistical profile of this match is defined by low attacking output and modest defensive records. Tenerife's home games average just 1.6 total goals (5 scored, 3 conceded in 5), while FC Andorra's away matches see 2.8 (5 for, 9 against in 5). Both teams average just over 1 goal per game (Tenerife 1.2, Andorra 1.3), and neither has kept a clean sheet in over 80% of matches. Shot volumes are modest (Tenerife 11, Andorra 9 per game), and both sides have struggled to convert possession into high-quality chances. Discipline could play a role, with both averaging over 2.5 yellow cards per game and Andorra's last five seeing an average of 4 yellows.
Given the season-long scoring and concession rates, the model expects a tightly contested, low-scoring affair, with the most likely result a 1-1 draw. The historical head-to-head record supports this, with three of the last four meetings ending in draws and all finishing under 2.5 goals. Unless either side capitalises on set pieces or defensive errors, the numbers suggest another stalemate.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Tenerife vs FC Andorra Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Tenerife vs FC Andorra that most previews miss.
- 1Tenerife's home matches average just 1.6 total goals per game this season (5 scored, 3 conceded in 5).
- 2FC Andorra's away matches have produced both teams scoring in 60% of games, but only one clean sheet in five.
- 3The last four head-to-heads have all finished under 2.5 goals, with three draws and neither side scoring more than once in any meeting.
Who do you think wins: Tenerife vs FC Andorra?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Tenerife vs FC Andorra(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over a goal per game (Tenerife 1.2, FC Andorra 1.3), and the last four head-to-heads have all finished under 2.5 goals, with two 1-1 or 0-0 draws. The distribution of recent results and low attacking output point to a high draw probability, especially at 1-1.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Tenerife's season over 2.5 rate is just 30%, and FC Andorra's away matches are averaging 1.8 goals per game. The combined season average for goals conceded is 1.4 (Tenerife) and 1.7 (Andorra), but both have clean sheet rates of 20% and have struggled to create high-quality chances in recent matches.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Tenerife vs FC Andorra Prediction
A mid-table Tenerife side hosts struggling FC Andorra in a fixture where both teams' season-long rates point to a low-scoring, closely contested match. Tenerife have drawn three of their last five and have not kept a clean sheet in that stretch, but their home defensive record (3 goals conceded in 5) is among the more robust in the lower half of the table. FC Andorra, meanwhile, have lost three of their last five but did record a 3-2 away win at Granada, showing flashes of attacking threat but also a vulnerability at the back, conceding 9 in 5 away games. Statistically, Tenerife's home matches average just 1.6 total goals (5 scored, 3 conceded in 5), while Andorra's away games see 2.8 (5 for, 9 against in 5). Both sides are averaging just over 1 goal scored per game, and neither has established a consistent attacking rhythm: Tenerife average 11 shots but only 3 on target per game, while Andorra manage 9 shots and 4 on target. The last four head-to-heads have all finished under 2.5 goals, with three draws and only three total goals scored by Tenerife in those matches. Given these rates, the model expects a low-scoring draw as the modal outcome, with a slight lean towards 1-1. The most plausible deviation comes from set pieces or defensive lapses, as both sides average nearly 5 corners per game and Tenerife have recently conceded multiple goals from limited opposition chances. However, the underlying numbers do not support a high-scoring affair.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →All four previous head-to-heads have finished under 2.5 goals, with two 1-1/0-0 draws.
Defence
- →Tenerife have drawn four of their last six and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five.
Match Context
- →FC Andorra's away record is poor (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, 5:9 goal difference), but they have scored in four of five away matches.
🚩 Tenerife vs FC Andorra Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Tenerife and 4.8 for FC Andorra, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Tenerife and FC Andorra Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Tenerife vs FC Andorra Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Tenerifelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FC Andorralast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tenerife are winless in their last five, drawing three and losing two, with a form string of DDLDL and a negative goal difference. FC Andorra have also struggled, picking up just two wins in their last five and conceding nine goals in their last five away matches. Both sides are underperforming relative to the league's top half and arrive with little momentum.
Tenerife vs FC Andorra — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Tenerife vs FC Andorra
The last four meetings between these sides have produced two draws and one win each, with a clear trend towards low-scoring games: three finished 1-1 or 0-0, and none featured more than two goals. Neither side has established dominance in this matchup.
Tenerife vs FC Andorra Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
1
Tenerife wins
3
Draws
1
FC Andorra wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Tenerife vs FC Andorra
With no bookmaker odds available, it's not possible to identify explicit value edges. However, the model's probabilities suggest that the draw and under 2.5 goals are more likely than the league average, so if market odds are above 3.0 for the draw or 1.70 for under 2.5, those would represent potential value based on the underlying rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Tenerife vs FC Andorra
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Recent form is volatile for both sides, with defensive lapses and red cards affecting results.
- ⚠️Sample size for head-to-head is small (4 matches), so historical patterns may not fully hold.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Tenerife 1–1 FC AndorraThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' season-long averages of just over a goal scored per game and a consistent pattern of low-scoring head-to-head encounters. The strongest data point is Tenerife's home defensive record (3 conceded in 5), which tempers Andorra's modest away attack. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if either side capitalises on set pieces or benefits from a defensive lapse, but the underlying rates do not support a high-scoring outcome.
Tenerife vs FC Andorra: Common Questions
Who will win Tenerife vs FC Andorra?
The model gives Tenerife a 36% chance to win, FC Andorra a 28% chance, and a draw 36%. Both teams have struggled for wins recently, and the most likely outcome is a draw based on their season-long scoring and concession rates.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Tenerife vs FC Andorra?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 63% probability. Tenerife's home matches average just 1.6 total goals, and all four previous head-to-heads have finished under 2.5 goals.
Are both teams likely to score in Tenerife vs FC Andorra?
Both teams to score is close to a coin flip, with a 51% probability for 'yes'. While both sides average just over a goal per game, neither has shown consistent attacking form, and three of the last four head-to-heads have seen both teams score.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Tenerife vs FC Andorra: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.