TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
TSV Hartberg
Full Time
4 - 3
AI predicted 2 - 1
Austria Lustenau
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+9% edge)
Match Result
9/10Seven-Goal Thriller: Hartberg Edge Lustenau in Dramatic Bundesliga Clash
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau delivered a Bundesliga classic at the Profertil Arena, with the hosts narrowly prevailing 4-3 in a pulsating encounter. Hartberg struck first, but Lustenau responded quickly, and both sides traded blows in a match that saw momentum swing repeatedly. Ultimately, a late goal in the 86th minute proved decisive, as Hartberg held off a spirited Lustenau comeback that included a stoppage-time strike. Hartberg dominated possession with 56% and were clinical in front of goal, firing 12 shots on target from 18 attempts. Lustenau, meanwhile, stayed competitive throughout, registering 15 shots (6 on target) and refusing to give in even after falling behind. The match was a showcase of attacking football, with both teams exploiting space and showing resilience, but it was Hartberg who emerged with all three points after a breathless finale.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
4 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
8' — Goal
Hartberg open the scoring, setting the tone for an attacking contest.
11' — Goal
Lustenau respond immediately to level the match.
43' — Goal
Lustenau take the lead just before half-time, shifting momentum.
55' — Goal
Hartberg equalize early in the second half, regaining their rhythm.
60' — Goal
Hartberg score again, taking a 3-2 lead.
86' — Goal
Hartberg extend their lead late on, seemingly sealing the win.
90' — Goal
Lustenau pull one back in stoppage time, setting up a nervy finish.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Lustenau pick up the game's only booking, reflecting their combative approach.
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg came out of the gates with attacking intent, taking the lead early and consistently threatening Lustenau's goal. Their 4-4-2 formation allowed for width and numbers in the box, resulting in 18 shots and an impressive 12 on target. After conceding just before half-time, Hartberg responded with two quick goals after the break, demonstrating both mental fortitude and tactical flexibility. Their defense wobbled at times, conceding three, but their attacking verve ultimately made the difference.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau matched Hartberg stride for stride, showing impressive attacking intent despite having less possession (44%). Their 4-1-4-1 setup provided solidity in midfield and allowed for quick transitions, which paid off with three goals, including a late push that nearly salvaged a point. However, defensive frailties and difficulty containing Hartberg's wide players ultimately cost them. Their fighting spirit was evident, especially with a stoppage-time goal that set up a tense finish.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hartberg's 4-4-2 formation provided them with width and attacking numbers, allowing their midfielders to support the forwards and create overloads in wide areas. Their ability to get shots on target (12 from 18 attempts) was a testament to their incisive play and well-timed runs into the box. Lustenau's 4-1-4-1 shape, meanwhile, gave them solidity in midfield but left them exposed on the flanks, where Hartberg found joy. Both teams pressed high at times, leading to a frenetic tempo and transitional opportunities. Set pieces also played a role, with Hartberg making the most of their five corners. Substitutions and tactical tweaks were evident as the match wore on, with both managers seeking to shore up their defenses and inject fresh legs. However, the attacking quality on display from both sides ensured a high-scoring affair, with neither defense able to fully contain the opposition's forwards.
Turning Point
Hartberg's goal in the 86th minute, which gave them a two-goal cushion and ultimately proved decisive despite Lustenau's late reply.
Man of the Match
Nikolaus Feldhofer
Scored a crucial goal from midfield, dictated play, and was instrumental in Hartberg's attacking transitions.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau: Match Preview
Hartberg and Austria Lustenau arrive level on points, goal difference, and season records, each with eight points from seven matches and a -3 goal differential. Hartberg's recent form is slightly more positive (WDDWW in all competitions), but their home league record is mixed (1W/1D/2L, 6 scored, 9 conceded). Lustenau, meanwhile, have yet to win away (0W/1D/2L) and have struggled for goals on their travels, netting just three times in three away league games.
Statistically, this fixture projects as open but not chaotic. Both teams' matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 57% of cases, and their combined average goals conceded per game stands at 1.71. Hartberg's attack has been lively in the last five (3.4 goals scored per game, albeit boosted by a friendly), but their defensive frailty at home (9 conceded in 4) is mirrored by Lustenau's lack of away punch. Shot and corner counts for both are low, suggesting that set pieces are unlikely to be a major factor, while card rates hover around 4 per match.
The model edges towards a narrow Hartberg win, driven by their slightly stronger recent attacking output and Lustenau's winless away record. However, the draw is rated nearly as likely, with the most probable scorelines tightly clustered around 2-1 and 1-1. Early goals are likely, and neither defence provides much assurance, so the contest could swing on finishing quality in the final third.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau that most previews miss.
- 1Hartberg's home matches average 3.75 total goals, the highest among bottom-half sides.
- 2Lustenau have failed to win any of their last five away Bundesliga matches (0W/2D/3L).
- 3Four of the last six H2H meetings have seen both teams score, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.
Who do you think wins: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.4
The model gives a 32% chance of a draw, above the 29.4% implied by odds of 3.4. Both teams have identical records (2W/2D/3L, -3 GD), and Hartberg's home defence (9 conceded in 4) is offset by Lustenau's winless away form (0W/1D/2L, 3 scored, 5 conceded).
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BTTS: No@ 2.11
BTTS 'no' is rated at 44% by the model, with the market only implying 37%. Hartberg have failed to keep a clean sheet in the league but Lustenau have failed to score in 1 of their last 5 and average just 1.14 goals per game this season.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Prediction
With both sides locked on eight points and nearly identical goal differences after seven rounds, this fixture has the statistical shape of a mid-table contest with little to separate the teams. Hartberg's home attack has been more productive (6 goals in 4) but their defensive record at Stadion Hartberg (9 conceded) is a concern, while Lustenau's away output is muted (3 in 3, no wins). The underlying rates point to a moderately high-scoring contest: both teams average over 1.4 goals conceded per game, and their over 2.5 goal rate stands at 57% each. Hartberg's last five have averaged 3.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Lustenau's last five have seen 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. However, both sides' shot and corner volumes are low (Hartberg 5.8 shots, 1.8 corners per game in last 5; Lustenau 5.0 shots, 1.4 corners), hinting at a game where finishing efficiency will be decisive. The model expects Hartberg's home edge and slightly sharper recent attack to tilt this narrowly, but neither side's defensive structure inspires confidence. The likeliest scenario is a 2-1 or 1-1, with early goals probable (63% chance of a goal before 30 minutes) and a moderate card count, but the draw remains a live outcome given the symmetry in season-long performance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Hartberg's home defence has conceded 9 in 4, while Lustenau are winless away (0W/1D/2L, 3 scored, 5 conceded).
Match Context
- →Both teams have identical league records (2W/2D/3L, -3 GD) after seven matches.
- →Both teams' matches go over 2.5 goals 57% of the time this season.
🚩 TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for TSV Hartberg and 4.6 for Austria Lustenau, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
TSV Hartberglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Austria Lustenaulast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hartberg have gathered momentum in recent weeks, unbeaten in their last four competitive matches (WDDW) and averaging 3.4 goals scored in their last five across all competitions. Lustenau's form is patchier (LWWLW in all comps), with their last away league outing ending in defeat and no wins on the road this season. Both sides have identical league records, but Hartberg's attack has shown more punch lately.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.6 goals/game (last 5)
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
The head-to-head record is finely poised, with four Hartberg wins, three for Lustenau, and three draws in the last ten meetings. Recent games at Hartberg have been tight, including a 2-2 draw and a 0-1 Lustenau win. Four of the last six encounters have seen both teams score, suggesting a competitive, open contest.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
TSV Hartberg wins
2
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
The model sees value on the draw at odds of 3.4, with a model probability of 32% versus the market's 29%. BTTS 'no' at 2.10 also offers a positive edge, as Hartberg's defensive record is poor but Lustenau's away attack is unconvincing. These markets provide the clearest divergence from the bookmakers' prices.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
- ⚠️Small sample size on recent form and shot data; both sides have played only 7 league matches.
- ⚠️Hartberg's last five include a 5-0 friendly win, inflating their recent attacking stats.
- ⚠️No injuries reported but lineups are unknown; late changes could impact model confidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
TSV Hartberg 2–1 Austria LustenauThe model calls a 2-1 win for Hartberg, with the single strongest data point being Lustenau's winless away record and Hartberg's recent attacking uptick (3.4 goals scored per game in last five). The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Hartberg's defensive issues at home (9 conceded in 4) allow Lustenau to snatch a point or more, making the draw a genuine risk.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau: Common Questions
Who will win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Hartberg are given a 41% chance of victory, with the draw close behind at 32% and Lustenau at 27%. Both teams have identical records, but Hartberg's home attack and Lustenau's poor away form tip the balance slightly towards the hosts.
Will both teams score in Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, with 3 of the last 5 for each side seeing BTTS and four of the last six H2Hs landing. However, Lustenau's away attack is limited, so BTTS 'no' is also a live outcome.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Over 2.5 goals is given a 58% probability, with both teams' matches going over this line in 57% of league games this season. Hartberg's home games average 3.75 goals, supporting a higher-scoring expectation.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.