Tunisia vs Mali Prediction
Tunisia vs Mali: Model Sides with Mali in Low-Scoring Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Tunisia
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Mali
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Tunisia vs Mali Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Tunisia vs Mali Prediction
Tunisia and Mali meet in a friendly with the model narrowly favouring the away side, giving Mali a 41% chance of victory compared to Tunisia’s 29%. Despite Tunisia’s slight Elo edge (+40 points, 1636 vs 1596), the analytics point to Mali’s greater attacking threat, especially after recent form adjustments. Tunisia’s attack has been blunt, with a final expected goals (xG) value of just 0.91 after factoring in poor finishing and a negative momentum multiplier (0.85). Mali, meanwhile, see their own attacking output trimmed by the same momentum penalty but still finish with a higher expected goals figure of 1.15. The model’s Poisson simulation suggests a tight contest, with the most likely scoreline being a 1-0 win for Mali (14.7% probability), followed by 1-1 and 0-0 draws. Both teams have struggled for goals in recent matches, but Mali’s defensive solidity and marginally sharper attack tip the scales in their favour.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Tunisia’s Elo rating is 40 points higher, but their attack is heavily suppressed by recent poor form.
- →Both sides have low recent scoring rates: Tunisia average 0.4 goals, Mali just 0.2 goals per game in their last five.
Match Context
- →Mali’s final expected goals (1.15) outstrip Tunisia’s (0.91) after all model adjustments.
- →The model’s top three correct scores are 0-1 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.3%), and 0-0 (12.8%).
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.38 · 1.22
From xG
1.01 · 1.04
Blended
0.91 · 1.15
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Tunisia's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Tunisia's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18; Mali's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Tunisia goals, columns = Mali goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.7%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
12.8%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Tunisia vs Mali that most previews miss.
- 1Tunisia have failed to score in three of their last five matches, averaging just 0.4 goals per game.
- 2Four of the last eight head-to-head meetings have ended in draws, including the last two (both 1-1).
- 3The model gives a 59% probability to 'both teams not to score', reflecting both sides’ recent attacking struggles.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins by establishing a baseline using Elo ratings, where Tunisia hold a slight advantage (1636 vs 1596), translating to a home expected score of 0.557. However, this is quickly offset by the next layer: attack and defence factors. Tunisia’s attack factor is just 0.777, reflecting issues in chance creation and finishing (finishing multiplier 1.2, chance quality 0.88), while Mali’s is set at the neutral baseline due to limited recent data. Defensively, Tunisia’s suppression factor is 1.25 (indicating a leaky backline), while Mali’s is neutral. The model then incorporates momentum, with both sides suffering a 0.85 multiplier to their attacking output based on recent form (Tunisia’s last five: LLLLL, Mali’s: LDLDD). This adjustment is significant, reducing both teams’ expected goals: Tunisia drop from a blended xG of 1.23 to 0.91, Mali from 1.15 to 1.15 (minimal change due to already low baseline). Finally, these adjusted expected goals are run through a Poisson distribution to simulate scorelines, producing a highest probability for 0-1 Mali.
More Friendlies Predictions
Tunisia vs Mali Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Tunisialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Malilast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Tunisia come into this match on a five-game losing streak, averaging just 0.4 goals scored and 3.6 conceded per game in that stretch. Mali’s recent form is only marginally better, with three draws and two losses in their last five, and a meagre 0.2 goals scored per game. Both sides have struggled to find the net, and neither has much momentum heading into this friendly.
Tunisia vs Mali — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 3.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
🚩 Tunisia vs Mali Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Tunisia and 3.7 for Mali, for an expected total of 8.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (71%). Over 8.5: 42% · Over 10.5: 19%.
What History Says: Tunisia vs Mali
The head-to-head record between Tunisia and Mali is remarkably balanced: two wins each and four draws from eight meetings. Recent encounters have been especially tight, with the last two ending 1-1 and the previous two before that finishing 0-0 and 0-1. This history of stalemates and narrow margins is echoed in the model’s low-scoring projections.
Tunisia vs Mali Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
2
Tunisia wins
4
Draws
2
Mali wins
Things to Watch: Tunisia vs Mali
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are currently available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotations and limited motivation.
- ⚠️Form data is sparse for Mali, and their attack/defence factors are based on limited recent evidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Tunisia 0–1 MaliThe model’s final call is a 1-0 win for Mali, driven by their higher adjusted expected goals (1.15 vs 0.91) and Tunisia’s ongoing attacking woes. The single strongest number is the 41% win probability for Mali. However, with both teams showing poor recent form and a history of close head-to-head encounters, a low-scoring draw is a plausible alternative outcome.
Tunisia vs Mali: Common Questions
Who will win Tunisia vs Mali?
The model gives Mali a 41% chance of winning, Tunisia a 29% chance, and a draw 30%. Mali are the slight favourites based on the analytics.
Will both teams score in Tunisia vs Mali?
The probability of both teams scoring is just 41%, with the model favouring 'no' at 59%, reflecting both sides’ recent lack of goals.
What are the most likely scorelines for Tunisia vs Mali?
The top three predicted scorelines are 0-1 to Mali (14.7%), 1-1 (13.3%), and 0-0 (12.8%), all pointing to a low-scoring match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Tunisia vs Mali: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 19 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.