Turkmenistan vs Palestine Prediction
Palestine Hold the Edge Over Turkmenistan in World Cup 2026 Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Turkmenistan
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Palestine
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Turkmenistan vs Palestine Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Turkmenistan vs Palestine?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Turkmenistan vs Palestine Prediction
This international friendly sees Turkmenistan face a stern test against Palestine, with the analytics model highlighting a significant gulf in quality. Palestine enter the fixture boasting a +260 Elo rating advantage (1469 vs 1209), which translates into a commanding 49.7% win probability for the away side, compared to just 23% for Turkmenistan. The expected goals line after all adjustments sits at 1.41 for Palestine and 0.86 for Turkmenistan, underlining the visitors' attacking superiority and defensive solidity. Recent form slightly tempers Palestine's attacking output, with a momentum multiplier of 0.85 applied to both their attack and defensive leakiness, reflecting a run of four consecutive draws and one win. Turkmenistan, meanwhile, have shown patchy form (two wins in five) but their momentum adjustment is minimal. The model's Poisson simulation points to a low-scoring affair, with 0-1 (14.6%), 1-1 (12.5%), and 0-0 (10.3%) emerging as the most probable scorelines.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Turkmenistan's momentum has a negligible effect on their expected output.
Attack
- →Top three correct scores are all low-scoring: 0-1, 1-1, and 0-0.
Defence
- →Palestine's recent form reduces their attacking and defensive projections by 15%.
Match Context
- →Palestine's Elo rating is 260 points higher than Turkmenistan's (1469 vs 1209).
- →Final expected goals: Palestine 1.41, Turkmenistan 0.86.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
0.78 · 1.82
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
0.86 · 1.41
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Palestine's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Turkmenistan goals, columns = Palestine goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.5%
1-1
12.5%
0-0
10.3%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Turkmenistan vs Palestine that most previews miss.
- 1Palestine have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding just 0.4 goals per game.
- 2Turkmenistan have both scored and conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five games, but only managed one clean sheet.
- 3The model gives a 56.4% chance of at least one team failing to score (BTTS 'No').
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with a baseline assessment using Elo ratings, where Palestine's +260 point advantage over Turkmenistan sets the stage for a clear away favourite. This Elo gap translates into a home expected score of just 0.183 and an away expected score of 0.817, heavily tilting the probabilities in Palestine's favour. Attack and defence factors are then layered in, but with little granular data available for either side, the model defaults to base values. Expected goals are blended from both Elo-derived and xG-derived lines, arriving at 0.86 for Turkmenistan and 1.41 for Palestine after factoring in recent momentum. Notably, Palestine's attack and defence are both slightly downgraded by a 0.85 multiplier due to a run of draws, while Turkmenistan's recent form causes only a minor 2.7% uplift. These final scoring rates are run through a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities, with the most likely outcomes all pointing to a tight, low-scoring match.
More Friendlies Predictions
Turkmenistan vs Palestine Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Turkmenistanlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Palestinelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Recent form data shows Turkmenistan have been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five and an average of 1.4 goals scored and conceded per game. Palestine are unbeaten in their last five (four draws, one win), conceding just 0.4 goals per match and keeping four clean sheets. However, both sides lack detailed attacking and defensive metrics, making deeper analysis challenging.
Turkmenistan vs Palestine — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Turkmenistan vs Palestine
There is no recent head-to-head data available for Turkmenistan and Palestine, reflecting the rarity of this fixture on the international stage. As such, the model relies entirely on underlying ratings and recent general form, rather than direct match-up history.
Turkmenistan vs Palestine Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Turkmenistan wins
1
Draws
0
Palestine wins
Things to Watch: Turkmenistan vs Palestine
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are currently available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotation and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️Sparse data on both teams' recent xG and player-level metrics limits model granularity.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Turkmenistan 0–1 PalestineThe analytics model favours Palestine to edge this friendly, projecting a 1-0 away win as the single most likely result (14.6% probability). The strongest number underpinning this verdict is Palestine's 49.7% win probability, driven by their substantial Elo advantage and recent defensive solidity. However, the low expected goals for both sides and the high probability of a draw (27.2%) suggest that a resolute Turkmenistan performance or a lack of cutting edge from Palestine could easily see the match end level.
Turkmenistan vs Palestine: Common Questions
Who will win Turkmenistan vs Palestine?
The model gives Palestine a 49.7% chance to win, while Turkmenistan have a 23% probability and the draw stands at 27.2%. Palestine are clear favourites based on Elo and expected goals.
Will both teams score in Turkmenistan vs Palestine?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at just 43.6% by the model, with a 56.4% chance that at least one side fails to find the net. The most likely scorelines are all low-scoring.
What are the most likely scorelines for Turkmenistan vs Palestine?
The three most probable correct scores are 0-1 (14.6%), 1-1 (12.5%), and 0-0 (10.3%), all pointing towards a tight and defensively-minded contest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Turkmenistan vs Palestine: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 14 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.